Le Pen France elections your thoughts - Politics and Economics

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Le Pen France elections your thoughts

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11-10-2016 , 10:49 AM

Rebel inc.

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Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,202

Many bookies panicked and dropped odds immediately after paying out for Trump.

But I expect as usual this will change with time, with more money going on Juppe.

You could get 6 on either Le Pen or Sarkozy couple of days back, I have seen low and actual 3 on Le Pen today.

Your thoughts.

11-10-2016 , 11:21 AM

tomatoe

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Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 508

i believe france has a parlimentarian coalition system? which means its easier for scheming globalist progressives to thwart the will of the people. you could get 40% le pen, 30% idiot 1, 30% idiot 2, and then the idiots form a coalition and take power leaving le pen out.

11-10-2016 , 11:44 AM

Brussels Sprout

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,778

The presidential Primary for Jupe's party is on in 10 days. His main rival is Sarkozy. The Socialists have destroyed their political capital with their base so look unlikely to feature in any 2-horse run off.

Most likely race is Jupe vs Le Pen with Jupe up by 30 points in the (lol) polls for that particular matchup.

11-10-2016 , 11:58 AM

BABARtheELEPHANT

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,920

I give Le Pen a sub 10% of winning. We have a 2 rounds election with clear instructions from the losing candidates on who to vote for. Never a losing candidate has called for his voters to vote Le Pen for the second round. That's a fairly big glass ceiling. For example, JM Le Pen in 2002 did 4.8M votes and only increased to 5.2M the second round.

She will most likely pass the first round tho. What are the odds on that?

Last edited by BABARtheELEPHANT; 11-10-2016 at 12:05 PM.

11-10-2016 , 12:05 PM

Huehuecoyotl

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Lol France

11-10-2016 , 12:07 PM

tomatoe

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Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 508

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brussels Sprout

could you please explain the specifics of how the election work? its not a vote and then the most popular candidate wins right? how does it work? thanks.

11-10-2016 , 12:16 PM

BABARtheELEPHANT

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,920

First round: You vote for whoever you want. The top 2 candidates advance to the second round.

Second round: whoever with more than 50% wins.

11-10-2016 , 12:48 PM

daca

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tomatoe

you dont know anything about anything

11-10-2016 , 01:07 PM

Rebel inc.

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bravo Daca you get the nasty person of this thread award

11-10-2016 , 01:10 PM

#10

daca

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okay, but 1. it's a presidential election 2. a parliamentary system would have made le pen much more influential. getting 20% in a parliamentary system makes you massively important. 3. "scheming globalist progressives" is basically telling everyone that you're insane.

11-10-2016 , 01:13 PM

#11

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Dont make any nuanced arguments if you want to debate Rebel Inc, you will be able to hear the whoosing over the intertubes.

11-10-2016 , 02:17 PM

#12

Rebel inc.

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Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,202

sad individual

Anyhow, I doubt we are even getting odds on her passing 1st round, her against Juppe or if he somehow pulls Hollande on him at the very last moment, Sarkozy is the match up.

Still as low as 10%, hm, not sure French will listen who to vote for this time. I guess surprise in France is way less likely but if it gets back to 6, I kinda think odds are there.

Migrants and terror is the game in France right now and if she says the right things there is population willing to listen, even in small towns these problems are no longer abstract.

11-10-2016 , 03:26 PM

#13

UPAY4DINNER

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 4,753

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl

Lol France

This

or

FRANCE LOL!

11-10-2016 , 03:28 PM

#14

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

any yanks who wanna lol at france prolly ought to wait at least 4 years

11-10-2016 , 04:13 PM

#15

tomatoe

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Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 508

Quote:

Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT

First round: You vote for whoever you want. The top 2 candidates advance to the second round.

Second round: whoever with more than 50% wins.

thanks babar. i was reading something about forming coalitions to shut le penn out. do you know what that was referring to? or if that person was simply misinformed?

11-10-2016 , 04:22 PM

#16

Kukraprout

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Polls say that any candidate who is not Hollande beats her by more than 20% in the second round. Juppé by more than 30%. It's not the first time she runs, there is not that much uncertainty about how people will vote.

By any rational fact-based analysis she has almost no chance, so given recent events I guess she can very well win. Why the **** not.

11-10-2016 , 04:27 PM

#17

Kukraprout

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tomatoe

thanks babar. i was reading something about forming coalitions to shut le penn out. do you know what that was referring to? or if that person was simply misinformed?

It's just that candidates who are eliminated in the first round campaign against the Front National in the second one (most of the time).

11-10-2016 , 04:28 PM

#18

tomatoe

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Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 508

how many days between first round of voting and second? has le penn ever been tried for "hate speech" like gert wilders?

11-10-2016 , 04:47 PM

#19

Kukraprout

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2 weeks.

Her father was found guilty several times of various forms of hate speech (no quotation marks needed) including apology of crimes against humanity. I think she was tried but not found guilty, she's more careful.

11-10-2016 , 04:56 PM

#20

tomatoe

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Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 508

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kukraprout

in america quotation marks are needed. the 1st amendment protects free speech, even if you say really mean things. im jewish but i am quite happy that in our society people are free to call me a **** or deny the holocaust. long live the 1st amendment.

11-10-2016 , 05:10 PM

#21

jalfrezi

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Your post doesn't make any sense.

What about continental European countries that are Anglo-Saxon?

11-10-2016 , 05:12 PM

#22

chytry

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Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomatoe

It's still hate speech even when it's legal.

Last edited by chytry; 11-10-2016 at 05:20 PM.

11-10-2016 , 05:29 PM

#23

Kukraprout

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tomatoe

This will be pointed out to you every time you will have a political discussion with a foreigner in the foreseeable future, especially if you try to lecture them on how to handle toxic idiocy: YOU ELECTED DONALD TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT.

11-11-2016 , 11:21 AM

#24

florentinopeces

old hand

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 1,199

Trump will put a stop to this. US has always defended Europe against its fascist impulses.

11-12-2016 , 11:13 AM

#25

Nerevar

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 387

its too bad no one was around to defend the US against its own fascist impulses

as for France, the french medias not being the complete cesspool of the anglosphere medias should be helpful in making Brexit/Trump type **** ups more of a challenge

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