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Old 06-04-2017, 04:27 AM   #126
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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My serious advice to you and maybe suzzer is to just get out of LA. I'm a big fan of urban life in general, but I really don't think cities are healthy places at that scale. Find a smaller city in a sanely governed state and live modestly. That's probably about the best life most of us can reasonably achieve.

Oh come on, there's lots of nice places. Like Clearwater Florida, have you ever been there? As an aside, do you ever feel like you're just in a slum, or just not your best? Maybe some things in your life just aren't right? If so, there's lots of really wonderful people in Clearwater that can help you!


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Old 06-04-2017, 04:36 AM   #127
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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And finally no towns where everyone is secretly an alien please. (*space alien)

There's lots of rumors about Clearwater that just aren't true! I think you'd like it too!

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Old 06-04-2017, 04:58 AM   #128
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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2) Would a thread examining the merits and downsides of a temporary ban (~10 years) on whites voting be interesting?

Radical Christian terrorists would make ISIS look like a King Friday show from Mr. Rogers.
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Old 06-04-2017, 05:01 AM   #129
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Oh come on, there's lots of nice places. Like Clearwater Florida, have you ever been there? As an aside, do you ever feel like you're just in a slum, or just not your best? Maybe some things in your life just aren't right? If so, there's lots of really wonderful people in Clearwater that can help you!

I've been to Clearwater - hot, humid, lots of mosquitos and the worst sunburn I've ever gotten. Not my ideal home.
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Old 06-04-2017, 05:18 AM   #130
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Political geography is a thing and ldo goes beyond red state/blue state or North and South. There are surely some rare exceptions but ~15 miles outside of any American city with > 500k people is pretty Trumpy everywhere.

Once you cross the threshold past the ~50th largest cities in the country, you can even find some Trumpy cities, particularly in the Rust Belt like Fort Wayne and Erie and Wheeling along with more predictable places like Amarillo and Birmingham AL. But it was the former (the Rust Belt cities with populations between 50k - 200k) that saw decent flips from Obama --> Trump which were ultimately the difference between winning and losing. It was one of the stories the media sort of got right in the lead-up to the election was to do those "fly a reporter into Youngstown or Montgomery County Ohio and talk to aggrieved whites" since the GOP has always done well with exurban and rural voters in America's hinterland but it was the medium size rust belt towns are where Trump actually flipped people or animated turnout the GOP wasn't formerly getting. That was basically Ground Zero for Trump, the places that are literally 'Trumpy' instead of simply perpetually on lockdown for the GOP.
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...so the difference really was the economically anxious rust belters? That + low Dem turnout I suppose.
The difference was largely the Rust Belters (PA OH MI WI).

But the economically anxious part is your interpretation, not mine. I do think economic anxiety, or more correctly, a certain sense of hopelessness and isolation was real which was partly economic nature -- that feeling is real enough in the Rust Belt but probably overstated by popular media.

What I think was understated by the media was the way racial resentment and migration and long-term trends and settlement patterns in the US were also explanatory (political geography!). Like it's really hard to understand anything about the Rust Belt *without* understanding yes, the history of trade and economics and industry in the region, but ALSO migration. Specifically the early 20th century phenomenon of blacks migrating out of the South and into northern and midwestern cities, and the resultant white flight out of them, followed later by the gentrification of the American city and large amounts of wealth pouring back into cities and a wholly different set of economic priorities (services, tech, knowledge) becoming dominant, and that whole story -- of trade, of progress, of migration has created a very specific context of white anxiety and social isolation that allowed a nascent fascist movement to thrive in very specific places.

I wrote about this last month:

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RE: Canadian country club not full of Trumpkins despite being mostly old whites, a few explanations come to mind

1. country club set in US not exactly Trump's core supporters either
2. better social safety net, less wealth disparity, better social and civic services, better labor protections, cleaner environment, less fealty to hyper competitive economic schemes leave population not in constant state of anxiety
3. circumstances of political geography unique to US (high levels of forced migration of Africans in the 17th-18th centuries as slaved, followed later by migration of blacks off of Southern plantations into cities coupled with white American flight out of them and American leadership kowtowing to white flight sympathies later in the 20th century with racist zoning and huge infrastructure projects that promoted segregation and hindered integration).

Trump's supporters in the primaries:



Increases in support for Trump relative to Romney:



I've belabored this point in the past but you can't understand Trump without understand the unique facets of America's political geography. Knowing where Trump had 1) significant levels of support in the GOP primaries (e.g., the south) and consequently where all of his dependable voters were (the south) and where all of the Obama --> Trump vote flippers were (suburban and exurban and rural midwest) points to the ultimate answer to this question about what is unique and different about the US. Fox News and Breitbart are everywhere but some places responded very favorably to Trump and others less so.

The places that responded very and uniquely favorably to Trump and/or proved very dependable:

1. the south
2. all the places where white flight types fled to during and after the Great Migration (e.g., when blacks fled the south en masse during the Jim Crow era), a migration phenomenon very specific to the north and industrial midwest in the US and less a phenomenon in the prairie states, southwest and west

Think you have to look at those factors and appreciate how if race and migration was a huge part of the explanation of Trump and uniquely American.

The rank Murdochian style propaganda machine of contemporary America is likely an effect of #2 and #3 rather than causative since aggressively racist idiots predate Fox News by centuries.
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Old 06-04-2017, 05:29 AM   #131
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

The rust-belters happened to be the swing votes in 2016. But the real difference that no one counted on was the 60 million people who reliably vote Republican for any conceivable candidate - no matter how terrible.

This is why everyone was laughing at Trump. Both sides of the aisle believed that the (R) candidate couldn't just scoop booty by spewing a bunch of ridiculous racist garbage in the primaries - w/o having to answer for it in the general. The collective wisdom was that moderate Republicans would be repulsed.

Oops.

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Old 06-04-2017, 05:44 AM   #132
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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The rust-belters happened to be the swing votes in 2016. But the real difference that no one counted on was the 60 million people who reliably vote Republican for any conceivable candidate - no matter how terrible.

This is why everyone was laughing at Trump. Both sides of the aisle believed that the (R) candidate couldn't just scoop booty by spewing a bunch of ridiculous racist garbage in the primaries - w/o having to answer for it in the general. The collective wisdom was that moderate Republicans would be repulsed.

Oops.
Sure, sure. But then why *Trump* and not Ted Cruz or Rubio or Kasich or whoever? Why a buffoon noted most for stoking white racial animus?

The answer imo is in my last post. Where did Trump get the primary support that built to his nomination?: the south, Appalachia, the industrial midwest. Read: racist whites.

Where did he flip votes or turnout more voters than Romney?: not the south or other traditional GOP strongholds. As you know, general elections are something of a fait accompli. The (R) candidate is guaranteed a huge floor. But where did he flip votes?

My MS Paint skills are garbage but this is the best I can do in 120 seconds. Obviously not you know like exactly accurate but you know, it's a meta point. The arrows are migration patterns of the 20th century:



He got votes where white people fled to when black people migrated north. Suburbia, exurbia, one-horse industry towns across the midwest built largely during the middle part of the 20th century.

So we go back to the point: is that *economic* anxiety? Those places are largely hot garbage right now, mostly just an assortment of meth addicts, opiate addicts and Walmarts. So, well, kinda economic anxiety? But there's NO WAY to tell the story in an accurate and meaningful way without diving into the history of migration and racial anxiety like 100 years in the making.
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Old 06-04-2017, 06:01 AM   #133
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

I mean I'm a broken ****ing record going on 1 year in this forum but I'm trying to battle two points here that I don't like:

1) "welp, those industrial midwest towns and suburbs are garbage (true!), so it's economic anxiety! Our work is done here!". I'm just trying to advocate like, hold the **** on, the context of that entire region is not really separable from racial resentment. It's entirely valid to note those places are in trouble but the complete picture has to include their original construction, conceit and population as an artifact of fear and anxiety about newly arrived migrants, mostly black.

2) "GOP voters gonna do their thing, just simple partisanship" -- but wait, what the **** makes the South and these far flung Midwestern outpost cities like Youngstown OH Republican in the first place? Well, huge amounts of racial animosity. That's why the GOP can reliably bank 200 EV or whatever from flyover country. They had a very explicit strategy to dominant the south politically by inheriting the language and frames of white supremacy.

Now I'm a little defensive to note here that these peoples' economic situations really do kinda suck right now! But that's sort of the point. The modern world has made these people double victims. It's a shame to watch so many people twisted and writhing around in anger and frothing at Muslims and blacks and immigrants, mainlining Fox News and fundamentalist religious zealotry and AM radio and that **** all day.

But the increase of global interconnections and global trade and the ascendancy of industries vastly different from the ones present in their towns, and impracticality of maintaining manufacturing concerns out in the American hinterlands have made these people double victims of some past bad choices. As wealth flows into cities and to the educated and the cosmopolitan set, these people are paradoxically building the paranoid dystopian future they always imagined when they or their grandparents fled in the first place, where they are second class citizens and dispossessed of wealth and the dominant culture and elites are becoming distant and unrecognizable to them. This ain't Hillbilly Elegy, believe me, I ain't demanding sympathy here. But you have to appreciate the irony of what's transpired that their meta, collective, fear-driven decision making actually built to their degraded state. Even worse is how they are heaping more bad decisions into the mix, anointing a billionaire real estate baron who lives in a Manhattan skyscrapper to lead the charge against the cosmopolitan elites. I boggle, but you have to admit this is one hell of a ****ing story about human nature, almost astounding in a way.
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Old 06-04-2017, 06:25 AM   #134
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Sure, sure. But then why *Trump* and not Ted Cruz or Rubio or Kasich or whoever? Why a buffoon noted most for stoking white racial animus?

The answer imo is in my last post. Where did Trump get the primary support that built to his nomination?: the south, Appalachia, the industrial midwest. Read: racist whites.

Where did he flip votes or turnout more voters than Romney?: not the south or other traditional GOP strongholds. As you know, general elections are something of a fait accompli. The (R) candidate is guaranteed a huge floor. But where did he flip votes?

My MS Paint skills are garbage but this is the best I can do in 120 seconds. Obviously not you know like exactly accurate but you know, it's a meta point. The arrows are migration patterns of the 20th century:



He got votes where white people fled to when black people migrated north. Suburbia, exurbia, one-horse industry towns across the midwest built largely during the middle part of the 20th century.

So we go back to the point: is that *economic* anxiety? Those places are largely hot garbage right now, mostly just an assortment of meth addicts, opiate addicts and Walmarts. So, well, kinda economic anxiety? But there's NO WAY to tell the story in an accurate and meaningful way without diving into the history of migration and racial anxiety like 100 years in the making.
Very interesting.

As a Brit trying to read this correctly with limited knowledge, in addition to Trump gaining votes where white people moved to, it looks as though he also gained votes where black people moved to (presumably because a lot of the remaining white Dems there switched to Repubs as a protest vote, plus some of the new black arrivals might be more in favour of Repubs than previously).

Deserves a thread of its own.

EDIT: I believe on a more micro scale a similar shift may have happened with the post War white population of the East End of London, traditional left voters, who largely moved further East out of London altogether and into Essex and became vociferously right wing following immigration by people from Pakistan and Bangladesh into the East End.

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Old 06-04-2017, 06:26 AM   #135
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Bleh - that's Wichita. I fell asleep just writing that sentence.

I'd want to be where I am, or in a small town where I know everyone. I want to hang out in the town square and gossip and eat pie.

The right small town of course. Need to avoid overly racist small towns. So the South is out. Also want to avoid towns currently being terrorized by a corrupt sheriff or local warlord and his goons. And finally no towns where everyone is secretly an alien please. (*space alien)
Small towns with a college are a bit more liberal.
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Old 06-04-2017, 06:57 AM   #136
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Sure, sure. But then why *Trump* and not Ted Cruz or Rubio or Kasich or whoever? Why a buffoon noted most for stoking white racial animus?

The answer imo is in my last post. Where did Trump get the primary support that built to his nomination?: the south, Appalachia, the industrial midwest. Read: racist whites.
Of course. I'm completely agreeing with that. The twist is that no one, including craven republicans like Ted Cruz, realized you could go full on racist sans dogwhistle in the primaries and it barely register with moderate republicans/swing voters. Everyone always knew you could win the primary with full on racism. They just didn't think it would hold in the general.

Oops.

This is the enduring lesson of 2016. Which will be remembered.
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Old 06-04-2017, 07:07 AM   #137
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Small towns with a college are a bit more liberal.
In the South I'm guessing is what you mean? Yeah I bet. And at least in the midwest I know there are plenty of small town outliers.

My gf wanted to see the midwest, so she booked us a farmstay near Paola, KS (about an hour south of KC - but sadly I did not see the Double Deuce anywher neabry). It was a charming B&B run by a gay couple - one had grown up in the area - the other in DC. They met in DC and decided to move back to rural KS to open a B&B on some land with cows, chickens, turkeys, ducks and the coolest dogs ever to guard the flock - great pyrenees. It makes me happy to know they can do that w/o (I'm assuming) too much hassle.

We also walked through Osawatomie, KS - pop 4500, which has a town square and a cafe with homemade pie, and saw way more Hillary signs than Trump. They actually have a museum dedicated to John Brown (the abolitionist) there. However, the closest house to the museum was flying a confederate flag. Which would have been lol in KS until very recently - as MO was a slave state and they still have major grudges from the Civil War. Jayhawks were KS raiders and Tigers were MO raiders. Both terrorized the other side.

This was right before the election. The two guys who ran the B&B were watching the news very nervously the whole time we were there. I almost told them something to the effect of "Don't worry, I watch the polls very closely and am plugged in - Trump can't win". But I held off. Lol @ me.

One thing that hasn't seem to happen so far is Trumpfan morons lashing out at gay people. Just blacks, immigrants and Muslims. Thanks, Ivanka. I guess.

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Old 06-04-2017, 07:24 AM   #138
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

I've lived my whole life in the driftless area



Obama crushed here x2, Kerry won here, Gore won, Clinton won x2. If you look at electoral maps it's that chunk of blue that's always in the middle of the sea of red between Chicago and like, the west coast and it's pretty weird that there's no big cities or real union-y influence.



I think part of the reason Obama did well here is that he actually visited the area multiple times. I saw Obama in La Crosse, Wisconsin, a city of 50k, twice. Clinton never set foot in the area, or even Wisconsin, once. Geniuses running that campaign. That's basically the area that Clinton should have been targeting, to counteract the topographically-challenged hick parts of those states. Instead she ignored the strategic area, lost Wisconsin, lost Iowa, and almost lost friggin Minnesota (the ONLY state that Reagan didn't win in 84).
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Old 06-04-2017, 07:27 AM   #139
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

Name a presidential race in the TV era where the more charismatic candidate lost.

Neil deGrasse Tyson - 2020!
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Old 06-04-2017, 07:50 AM   #140
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Name a presidential race in the TV era where the more charismatic candidate lost.

Neil deGrasse Tyson - 2020!
Kind of a circular metric. Clinton had relatively low favorability and likability ratings but was consistently higher than Trump's. There's no real rational basis for saying Trump was more charismatic than Clinton when he was generally measured as deeply unpopular in public opinion polls. His favorability ratings in Gallup's pre-election tracking poll never rose above 35%. Clinton's never fell below 40%. So I think this meme needs to go away too, but I suppose we can simply redefine charisma to be some immeasurable quality and therefore the claim can never be proven wrong.
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:00 AM   #141
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Kind of a circular metric. Clinton had relatively low favorability and likability ratings but was consistently higher than Trump's. There's no real rational basis for saying Trump was more charismatic than Clinton when he was generally measured as deeply unpopular in public opinion polls. His favorability ratings in Gallup's pre-election tracking poll never rose above 35%. Clinton's never fell below 40%. So I think this meme needs to go away too, but I suppose we can simply redefine charisma to be some immeasurable quality and therefore the claim can never be proven wrong.
It's pretty obvious that Trump is more charismatic than Hilary Clinton. I don't think you'll be able to quantify that with numbers or polls.
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:02 AM   #142
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Kind of a circular metric. Clinton had relatively low favorability and likability ratings but was consistently higher than Trump's. There's no real rational basis for saying Trump was more charismatic than Clinton when he was generally measured as deeply unpopular in public opinion polls. His favorability ratings in Gallup's pre-election tracking poll never rose above 35%. Clinton's never fell below 40%. So I think this meme needs to go away too, but I suppose we can simply redefine charisma to be some immeasurable quality and therefore the claim can never be proven wrong.
Polls != charisma. If you're arguing HRC has more charisma than Trump - I want some of what you're smoking.

Kennedy over Nixon
Johnson over Goldwater
Nixon over Humphrey
Nixon over McGovern
Carter over Ford
Reagan over Carter
Reagan over Mondale
Bush over Dukakis (cripple fight!)
Clinton over Bush
Clinton over Dole
Bush over Gore
Bush over Kerry
Obama over McCain
Obama over Romney
Trump over HRC

I get what you're saying that we tend to look back on the winner as obviously the one with more charisma. I will grant I don't know **** about Humphrey's charisma. But still if I look at that list for every candidate I experienced personally, it seems pretty obvious the candidate with more charisma won.
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:05 AM   #143
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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If you look at electoral maps it's that chunk of blue that's always in the middle of the sea of red between Chicago and like, the west coast and it's pretty weird that there's no big cities or real union-y influence.
I've spent a bunch of time there. Cool place. Reminds me of the Berkshires or Vermont or the Pacific Northwest which is generally rural or lightly populated but retains a generally liberal / leftist political culture.

My guesses:

1. a bunch of Nordic immigrants retaining the political sensibilities of the Nordic region as opposed to much of Appalachia or the OH/PA/WV corridor which is a lot of Scotch Irish immigrants
2. deep religious influence of the social gospel culture without the competing influence of fundamentalist racist religious types
3. inheritance of farm labor / Progressive values from the early 20th century but WITHOUT a lot of industrial towns populated by white flight types; again an artifact of political geography -- the hills and carved up terrain meant that turning into a center of manufacturing didn't make sense. It's West Virginia without the coal mines. The result is this area *didn't* receive an influx of white labor in the middle of the 20th century.

Just some guesses but it's how I'd explain the curiosity.
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:07 AM   #144
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

Missouri used to be a bellweather state - and that wasn't all from the cities. In 2016 it broke 26 pts for Trump. WAAF
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:07 AM   #145
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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I've been to Clearwater - hot, humid, lots of mosquitos and the worst sunburn I've ever gotten. Not my ideal home.

Aw that's no fun. There's really cool places you can go to get some AC, they even give free personality tests! You should really, really reconsider ...
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:08 AM   #146
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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It's pretty obvious that Trump is more charismatic than Hilary Clinton. I don't think you'll be able to quantify that with numbers or polls.
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Polls != charisma.
Oh:

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I suppose we can simply redefine charisma to be some immeasurable quality and therefore the claim can never be proven wrong.
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:08 AM   #147
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

I am aware of AC. I just remember walking out to the beach in heat. Anyway I like Tampa a lot - could totally live there. Sanibel Island was nice too.
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:11 AM   #148
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

I'm trying to figure out if Trump is supposed to be more charismatic than Clinton, but now I'm sad I started thinking about America.
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:11 AM   #149
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

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Oh:
It helps to not have aspergers and be able to recognize charasma when you see it.



:44 in
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Old 06-04-2017, 08:13 AM   #150
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Re: Juno is a top notch neutrino observatory (LC Thread)

Just saying I think you guys missed with the argument about charisma and it's really the unseen miasmas which create an unseen but powerful energy force that surrounds the candidates which determines the winner. Trump clearly just had the miasmas on his side as was plain to everyone and we should make sure we nominate someone who can channel this force next time. It's a simple heuristic and has yet to fail, so obvious, let's get with the program. This 1980s music video should lay to rest any doubts:



Miasma ratings out the wahzoo.
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