How do we not have a PA-18 SWEAT THREAD - Page 5 - Politics and Economics

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How do we not have a PA-18 SWEAT THREAD

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03-13-2018 , 08:29 PM

#101

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

Omg the neeeeeeeeeeeeedle is moving!

03-13-2018 , 08:30 PM

#102

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

Drew Miller coming on strong with 2 votes.

03-13-2018 , 08:32 PM

#103

fxwacgesvrhdtf

Guest

Posts: n/a

First numbers to report are not great. It's a blue Alleghany precinct and Lamb only up by 5. He needs to be up by a lot more than that in Allegghany.

03-13-2018 , 08:32 PM

#104

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiltedDonkey

Drew Miller coming on strong with 2 votes.

03-13-2018 , 08:33 PM

#105

fxwacgesvrhdtf

Guest

Posts: n/a

3 precincts in Alleghany now, trendline still not good, 5 points not enough.

03-13-2018 , 08:33 PM

#106

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

First numbers to report are not great. It's a blue Alleghany precinct and Lamb only up by 5. He needs to be up by a lot more than that in Allegghany.

Seems a tad early for this kind of analysis. Lol

03-13-2018 , 08:34 PM

#107

JonnyA

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,664

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

First numbers to report are not great. It's a blue Alleghany precinct and Lamb only up by 5. He needs to be up by a lot more than that in Allegghany.

According to NYT they are favorable to Lamb. Remaining vote is slightly in favor of Lamb (assuming 50/50 result) so fact that Lamb is also up in the actual results means they expected those votes to be in favor of Saccone (again assuming 50/50 result).

edit: started posting this before last batch came in and needle actually moved towards Lamb.

03-13-2018 , 08:35 PM

#108

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

Quote:

Originally Posted by StimAbuser

Why were they ****ting on him again?

Because he was a poor grassroots fundraiser (almost all Republicans are), but mainly because they don't want Trump to take the blame if he loses.

03-13-2018 , 08:39 PM

#109

Matty Lice

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 3,438

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatkid

Looking forward to Rara votesplaining why he couldn't have voted for Lamb if he lived in PA-18.

03-13-2018 , 08:40 PM

#110

MrAdvantage

Guest

Posts: n/a

Wow nice bump on that refresh

03-13-2018 , 08:41 PM

#111

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

3 precincts in Alleghany now, trendline still not good, 5 points not enough.

62% for Lamb in Alleghany now.

03-13-2018 , 08:42 PM

#112

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,424

Needle

PA-18 is ruby red. A democrat hasn't won there since 2002, Trump won the district by nearly 20 points, as did Mitt Romney.

As we all know, this race is a toss-up.

Go Conor!

03-13-2018 , 08:42 PM

#113

Matty Lice

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 3,438

Damn, Greene county was +40 Trump in general election

03-13-2018 , 08:42 PM

#114

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jbrochu

62% for Lamb in Alleghany now.

No dude jman has the scoop here. Listen to him.

03-13-2018 , 08:43 PM

#115

DeuceKicker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 5,359

Oh, needle, how I've missed you

03-13-2018 , 08:44 PM

#116

fatkid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 8,860

I turned on the needle. Give it to me.

03-13-2018 , 08:47 PM

#117

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

52% lamb bitches

03-13-2018 , 08:47 PM

#118

JonnyA

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,664

So far it looks like turnout has been good in D areas (compared to what NYT is using in their model), which is moving needle towards Lamb. Issue is whether turnout is going to be similarly good in R areas.

03-13-2018 , 08:48 PM

#119

fxwacgesvrhdtf

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatkid

No dude jman has the scoop here. Listen to him.

I obviously withdraw my earlier comment upon more returns. That said the needle still has lamb only winning by .6, and believes Saccone leads in the remaining votes to be counted. It is still close.

03-13-2018 , 08:49 PM

#120

fxwacgesvrhdtf

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonnyA

We still have no returns from 2 of the republican counties unfortunately.

03-13-2018 , 08:49 PM

#121

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Man oh man it's gonna go down to the wire.

03-13-2018 , 08:49 PM

#122

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

03-13-2018 , 08:50 PM

#123

Matty Lice

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 3,438

Damn, CNN saying people were still waiting on line at 8 PM and will be allowed to vote. LOLGOP.

03-13-2018 , 08:51 PM

#124

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Lamb also up in Washington county now and not too far behind in Greene. I have no idea if any of this means anything yet.

03-13-2018 , 08:52 PM

#125

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matty Lice

Damn, CNN saying people were still waiting on line at 8 PM and will be allowed to vote. LOLGOP.

You're assuming that those people are Dems. Maybe it's rednecks who forgot about the election until the last minute.

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