Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Politics political discourse

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-05-2015, 06:19 PM   #126
O.A.F.K.1.1
Ted Patrick
 
O.A.F.K.1.1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Deep Coma
Posts: 21,691
Re: Greek debt negotiation

So 240B has been spent by the Greek Gov into a population of 10M and its GDP has still shrunk by 25%?

Its simply not possible even if they used the money to buy dog ****, piled the dog **** up high and then lit it on fire.
O.A.F.K.1.1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 06:19 PM   #127
ALLTheCookies
half a brain
 
ALLTheCookies's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Trips to areas with jihadi ties
Posts: 23,375
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by STA654 View Post
Most disappointing thing about this is the lack of LOLworthy treaty of Versailles comparisons in the press

"Germans should really understand the difficulty of repaying a large debt to foreigners" etc
Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”
ALLTheCookies is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 06:20 PM   #128
longmissedblind
veteran
 
longmissedblind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: the fairest portion of the Earth
Posts: 3,468
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
You're assuming that the EU will abandon them.

It's possible but that's a fairly unlikely result of all this.
I've been seeing more and more of this thinking online. Something along the lines of:
"Greeks don't need the EU, the EU needs Greece for regional security. The EU will do what it takes to keep Greece from drifting North or East."
longmissedblind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 06:40 PM   #129
FWWM
FOOT FF Fristion '15
 
FWWM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Somewhere over the m÷ller
Posts: 7,219
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
So 240B has been spent by the Greek Gov into a population of 10M and its GDP has still shrunk by 25%?

Its simply not possible even if they used the money to buy dog ****, piled the dog **** up high and then lit it on fire.
a) The pre-crisis GDP was blown up artificially by a large debt, Greece's deficit pre-crisis was around 8-9% GDP, which means that around half of government spending was financed by new debt. After the credit market dried out, most of the bailout money was simply needed to keep going, it could not be used to fund anything new.
b) You are assuming that all the money sent into Greece is spent in ways that shows up on a balance sheet and therefore in the GDP. But esp. in Greece a lot of money simply disappears into the shadow economy and/or is channeled abroad.
FWWM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 06:50 PM   #130
chezlaw
Limey Bastard
 
chezlaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 34,131
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by longmissedblind View Post
I've been seeing more and more of this thinking online. Something along the lines of:
"Greeks don't need the EU, the EU needs Greece for regional security. The EU will do what it takes to keep Greece from drifting North or East."
That's extreme though, Greece do need the EU and will do even if they leave the Euro. The point I was making is that it's the nature of the EU to manage it's way through problems. It's very very good at it even though it always seems to happen 'after it's too late' and I still wouldn't bet against this time.

Not sure regional security is an issue but there have been noises that Germany is concerned about the UK leaving from a security point of view (wrt Russia in particular). I don't know if it's at all plausible that they are concerned Greece could escalate into an existential crises for the EU. Maybe the reverse with this crises providing an opportunity for some new treaty.
chezlaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 07:42 PM   #131
LukeSilver
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 918
Re: Greek debt negotiation

stupid greeks have no consideration to what this will do my personal portfolio well screw them.

I say we should kick them out the euro zone, and out of Europe and leave them to rot in there own mess. before people said it was not the Greek peoples fault it was there government well they elected this government and they have shown support in the referendum.

As far as I am concerned the greek people deserve all the mess they should get.
LukeSilver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 08:31 PM   #132
Dutch101
old hand
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Sydney
Posts: 1,571
Re: Greek debt negotiation

The Greek are underestimating what would happen if the EU provides them bailout money without reform. The moment that happens Spain, Portugal, Italy and France will want the same thing. The countries that would actually end up financing that have no chance getting that through their parliaments. Any party agreeing to that would be voted out the next election and in the case of Holland it might cause the anti-euro party to get into power and force Holland to exit.

The question now is what Greece will do when it finds out that the no vote didn't make a difference and they won't get the money without reforms. Will they let their banks fail and start a new currency or will they fold and reform anyway.
Dutch101 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 09:11 PM   #133
chezlaw
Limey Bastard
 
chezlaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 34,131
Re: Greek debt negotiation

There's no question of bailout money without reforms

It's just about whether a deal acceptable to all can be reached
chezlaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 09:34 PM   #134
samsonh
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Belmont Alum
Posts: 3,519
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy View Post
Defaulting and devaluation shut the paths forward, not open.

Greece hadn't paid any of its debt (sorry, debtors paying themselves don't really count) for years. And the effective value of the debt, with lower rates, was cut in half over the past few years. The troika refrained from cutting "face" accounting value to preserve the appearance that Greek is living up to its obligations. Defaulting and simply negating the debt doesn't relieve Greece of debt burden; it only removes the incentive to reform.

Now Greece punts the reforms and has to go on with diminished (I don't think it will disappear) European support, massive flight of capital, much higher costs of borrowing, and brain drain.

This vote just locked Greece into an economic disaster that will only result in a fresh round of negotiations in a few years, possibly only 1, under significantly worse circumstances. That's even if Tsipras and Syriza eventually manages to get a favorable deal.

The only positive I get out of this is when Greece runs out of outsiders to blame, it will finally look inward and implement the needed reforms.
You seem to have zero idea how capital markets work. Devaluation should have been happening the whole time. It will happen now. It will be severe. Long term it is positive. This is undeniable.
samsonh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 09:43 PM   #135
Tien
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Tien's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: INFOWARS ALL DAY
Posts: 6,172
Re: Greek debt negotiation

If Greece exits the eurozone and collapses, wouldn't the tourist industry become a boon with depressed prices?
Tien is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 09:48 PM   #136
SenorKeeed
mew mew mew
 
SenorKeeed's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 36,364
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Of course.
SenorKeeed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 10:15 PM   #137
BigPoppa
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BigPoppa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Solitary,poor,nasty, brutish, short
Posts: 22,217
Re: Greek debt negotiation

I agree with something I just read:


The vote makees it less likely they'll be a deal, but if there is it will be a better deal for Greece (since, ldo, a worse deal or the same deal will never get approved).
BigPoppa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 10:36 PM   #138
esad
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
esad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 9,071
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tien View Post
If Greece exits the eurozone and collapses, wouldn't the tourist industry become a boon with depressed prices?
Exactly. Plus Cheaper greek labor etc..

In the long term it's probably a better option but the short term will be a **** show.

Long term Greece can just go back to being a third world country like it was before it joined the EU.
esad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2015, 10:38 PM   #139
Dutch101
old hand
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Sydney
Posts: 1,571
Re: Greek debt negotiation

The tourist industry will go through a big downturn before it starts booming. Tourist are not going to a country where there is no money in the ATM's and no food in the stores.
Dutch101 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 12:47 AM   #140
grizy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
grizy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Looking for Rush HU Poker
Posts: 16,456
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Greece tourism can't really boom that much relative to now. The industry has been near saturation for years.

Tourism's share of Greece GDP will probably grow to over 20% but that will have just as much to do with rest of the economy shrinking as tourism booming due to lower costs.
grizy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 01:23 AM   #141
Tien
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Tien's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: INFOWARS ALL DAY
Posts: 6,172
Re: Greek debt negotiation

To those that know the Greek situation more, is another bailout going to solve anything in Greece?

Are structural issues that brought Greece to where it is today be fixed or will we be back where we are 5 years from now if Greece gets a bailout.
Tien is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 03:24 AM   #142
Dutch101
old hand
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Sydney
Posts: 1,571
Re: Greek debt negotiation

They are already on the right path, they are just not moving fast enough. The current government also refuses to reform in certain areas that are obvious problems like the pension system. With the previous government I would have expected them to eventually get to a point where no more money needed to be pumped into their economy but I am not so sure with the current one. Giving them money might just be throwing it in a bottomless pit.
Dutch101 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 04:06 AM   #143
einsteinaint****
adept
 
einsteinaint****'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Outer space
Posts: 1,041
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
ain't nobody caused greek debt problems but themselves.
Even if one accepts the ridiculous and difficult to defend narrative that this is all due to irresponsible governance, spending what isn't there, etc., that doesn't mean that the Greeks themselves caused the debt problems. That vast majority of Greeks, like the vasty majority of Italians or Germans, are just peons going to work and doing their jobs, if they are fortunate enough to have them. A banking and governance structure plagued by corruption and criminality is not the fault of the ordinary people, and what is going on now is that, slowly, they are reacting. So far the reaction has been peaceful, but as this degenerates more, and more people pile on blaming the hungry unemployed father for what some banker did, things might change for the worse.
einsteinaint**** is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 05:15 AM   #144
chezlaw
Limey Bastard
 
chezlaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 34,131
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Yanis Varoufakis is standing down. "I shall wear the creditors' loathing with pride."

Sounds like a step taken to help with finding a way forward.
chezlaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 07:33 AM   #145
matispar
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 47
Re: Greek debt negotiation

..problem in europe is not greece but germany..just look who is winning money all these -crisis -years in europe..ofcourse there wasnt anywhere,anytime,anyone political leader to make a stand...only thing left for this stand is to be made by european citizents..

e.gi m refering to govermenments and organizations not simple people..
people duty is to search for the hidden picture and not be propaganda s victims(this is for greek people too).
sorry for my english..doing my best
matispar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 07:40 AM   #146
chytry
veteran
 
chytry's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 3,036
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by einsteinaint**** View Post
Vast majority of Greeks, like the vasty majority of Italians or Germans, are just peons going to work and doing their jobs, if they are fortunate enough to have them.
chytry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 09:05 AM   #147
seattlelou
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
seattlelou's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: 6'20" and killing for fun.
Posts: 31,605
Re: Greek debt negotiation

So what is the trioika's next playa? I am guessing they let the banks fail and see if the government stands.
seattlelou is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 09:44 AM   #148
matispar
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 47
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou View Post
So what is the trioika's next playa? I am guessing they let the banks fail and see if the government stands.
,,Dont think USA like these games ..they want stability in this area..so something a bit better for greece but not enough in the long run is probable..
matispar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 09:51 AM   #149
grizy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
grizy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Looking for Rush HU Poker
Posts: 16,456
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Firing Varoufakis buys time. Draghi is not going to be solely responsible for the fall. He'll give Greek banks enough money for $60 withdrawls for a week or two, essentially kicking the can over to EC.
grizy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2015, 10:05 AM   #150
dessin d'enfant
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou View Post
So what is the trioika's next playa? I am guessing they let the banks fail and see if the government stands.
Hopefully the opposite....pull a Costanza and just show up with the funds regardless of what you said before.
  Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:49 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online