Wonder where Greece will be at when we get the next economic shock, they happen about once every ten years so we are due one by 2018.

I hope so. I'd still bet on more can kicking but I'd bet far more confidently on no Grexit.

Not sure what context you mean reforms in, but there are going to be tax increases in VAT.

yeah that should probably have been 'structural reforms' instead of just 'reforms'. The word reform gets gets used more more widely. Structural reform mostly doesnt.

The less developed countries in the EU get a net profit of around 2-3% of their GDP from the EU budget, to support developing their economies.

e.g. Greece gets around 5bn net every year, and they don't even take full advantage of some programs because these would require co-funding.

Hard to imagine these countries would be better off without the EU. Maybe without the euro though.

That makes sense. I was thinking of the Swiss, UK, and the Scandies.

I worked at the coal face of one of the EUs grant funds, very depressing experience that made me much more sympathetic to right of centre ideas.

For the developed countries the access to the $18 trillion single market / EEA is pretty valuable. That doesn't necessarily require joining the EU (e.g. Switzerland), but they still pay for the privilege (and are required to adopt some of the EU legislation without having representation there).

The news coverage this morning appears to be much more positive. Everybody happy with the result?

The coming months and years will tell whether it was a good idea or just throwing more money into a deep black hole. I am not optimistic.

Trade off appears to be:

Increase of debt to 200% GDP.
Harsher fiscal measures.
Damage done by several weeks of capital controls. (No change till this Wed)
Forced privatization and asset fund, with political strings.
Any changes of fiscal policy must be approved by EU partners (not sure of mechanism)

In exchange for:

Bigger refinancing package, therefore able to meet repayments over longer time frame.
Asset fund will recap banks.
Possibility of repayment horizon being extended if fiscal reforms carried through.

The thing is, even a completely middle of the road super standard centrist political administration would have reached the point under BO3 where they would have had to say, wtf, we just cant pay, give us a break.

Given the the objective reality of the ability of non payment, I am pretty confident that a more middle road party would have emerged with a better deal given greater commonality with negotiating partners hence more "trust." They probably could have done this without forcing capital controls for 2 and half weeks.

The current admin in terms of results have emerged with nothing radical whatsoever. The only thing that one can claim as victory is the 80B of refinancing, its very hard to determine whether this would have been smaller under a more bulk standard centrist party, seems likely that it would not have needed to be 80B.

Actually there is a bit more gravy in the deal.

Interested about the 200% debt to GDP figure as the monies for BO4 come from the ESM (some from IMF), which is not added to national debt.

Just 3 days ago I remember arguing with a certain person that this Syriza government was the best government Greece had in a while.... And waiting until banks were bankrupt was the best thing the Greece government could do to start a negotiation....


So they accepted the worse possible deal ever after 6 months of negotiations and put themselves in a position to accept whatever the Eurozone wanted because they had no choice.


The Greeks voted these idiots in?


The funny thing is, this extremely harsh deal may be the medicine that forces Greeks to actually do something to fix their problems instead of yelling and stomping their feet for more money.

Here is Bloomberg View roasting Tsipras for "vandalizing" greece in the last year.

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...dalized-greece

Isn't most of the financing used to repay previous debts, meaning that the impact on debt to GDP ratio will not be that big?

this appears to be the extent of the debt relief Greece is getting

ie, no guarantees.

it wouldn't stun me if Greece Parliament did not accept the deal. this is markedly worse than the referendum deal the voters rejected. this is certainly a humiliation of Syriza and Tsipiras

Not sure how much new debt is added, but also GDP will have fallen during 2 and half weeks of capital controls.

nah, just the good old bad cop, good cop routine

I've found the recent serious comments about the end of euro because of Greece genuinely comical.

'Meh' is the general opinion I guess. The only surprise is that there's not a more positive spin put on it for the Greeks - maybe the result of so much bad feeling generated or general exhaustion.

Will always be left wondering what would have happened if Tsipras had shown serious intent about leaving the Euro and defaulting.

Do you think the German outline of a temporary (lol) Grexit was genuine? If so it would not be much of a bargaining chip. Grexit is being played as a gun to the Greeks head in the US media.

German finance minister is portrayed as having a hard on for Grexit.

I think the Germans have completely had it with the old/existing Greek ways - and would have preferred a Grexit to a bailout where they don't get everything they want.

Also think the Greeks should have preferred a Grexit to a deal where they give their creditors everything they want

More like Germany tapping a holstered gun with a mean stare in their eyes.

Their ability to use it was never tested because it was clear by then that Tsipras was coming quietly.

Apparently Tsipras tried to leave the room at 3am saying Im done, and was told no waize. There is even an internet meme with which ever negotiators head pasted onto Gandalf saying "You shall not pass".

Edit: It was Donald Tusk.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f908e534-2...#axzz3fm3lSXzI

are there proposed assets for the 50b privatization / sale? That is a huge number - anybody know how how they plan to get there? I'm assuming it can't include property (like islands) but I dunno.