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Old 07-13-2015, 06:32 AM   #551
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Wonder where Greece will be at when we get the next economic shock, they happen about once every ten years so we are due one by 2018.
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Old 07-13-2015, 06:32 AM   #552
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by daca View Post
I should have been clearer about what I meant. The debt relief/restructuring that's talked about might happen at some point, but other than that I think there's over a over 50% chance this fixes it. I think we're unlikely to see bailout #4 or Grexit and I think debt restructuring will likely happen pretty peacefully.
I hope so. I'd still bet on more can kicking but I'd bet far more confidently on no Grexit.
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Old 07-13-2015, 06:34 AM   #553
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by daca View Post
btw if anyone wants to know what's meant by 'reforms' (Phonebooth?) then this is much of what they're going for http://www.oecd.org/daf/competition/...sment-2013.pdf

It's not spending cuts or tax increases. It's bakery liberalisation, Sunday shopping, selling of over the counter medication in supermarkets and so on. It's the standard neoliberal stuff, but from OECD instead of the IMF because the IMF is for poor 3rd world countries. It's also why the pharmacists' union is planning to protests the deal.
Not sure what context you mean reforms in, but there are going to be tax increases in VAT.
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Old 07-13-2015, 06:51 AM   #554
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Not sure what context you mean reforms in, but there are going to be tax increases in VAT.
yeah that should probably have been 'structural reforms' instead of just 'reforms'. The word reform gets gets used more more widely. Structural reform mostly doesnt.
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Old 07-13-2015, 06:56 AM   #555
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by seattlelou View Post
Better yet not joining the EU.
The less developed countries in the EU get a net profit of around 2-3% of their GDP from the EU budget, to support developing their economies.

e.g. Greece gets around 5bn net every year, and they don't even take full advantage of some programs because these would require co-funding.

Hard to imagine these countries would be better off without the EU. Maybe without the euro though.
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Old 07-13-2015, 07:06 AM   #556
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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The less developed countries in the EU get a net profit of around 2-3% of their GDP from the EU budget, to support developing their economies.

e.g. Greece gets around 5bn net every year, and they don't even take full advantage of some programs because these would require co-funding.

Hard to imagine these countries would be better off without the EU. Maybe without the euro though.

That makes sense. I was thinking of the Swiss, UK, and the Scandies.
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Old 07-13-2015, 07:10 AM   #557
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

I worked at the coal face of one of the EUs grant funds, very depressing experience that made me much more sympathetic to right of centre ideas.
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Old 07-13-2015, 07:36 AM   #558
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

For the developed countries the access to the $18 trillion single market / EEA is pretty valuable. That doesn't necessarily require joining the EU (e.g. Switzerland), but they still pay for the privilege (and are required to adopt some of the EU legislation without having representation there).

Last edited by plexiq; 07-13-2015 at 07:46 AM.
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Old 07-13-2015, 07:58 AM   #559
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

The news coverage this morning appears to be much more positive. Everybody happy with the result?
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Old 07-13-2015, 08:20 AM   #560
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

The coming months and years will tell whether it was a good idea or just throwing more money into a deep black hole. I am not optimistic.
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Old 07-13-2015, 08:28 AM   #561
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Trade off appears to be:

Increase of debt to 200% GDP.
Harsher fiscal measures.
Damage done by several weeks of capital controls. (No change till this Wed)
Forced privatization and asset fund, with political strings.
Any changes of fiscal policy must be approved by EU partners (not sure of mechanism)

In exchange for:

Bigger refinancing package, therefore able to meet repayments over longer time frame.
Asset fund will recap banks.
Possibility of repayment horizon being extended if fiscal reforms carried through.

The thing is, even a completely middle of the road super standard centrist political administration would have reached the point under BO3 where they would have had to say, wtf, we just cant pay, give us a break.

Given the the objective reality of the ability of non payment, I am pretty confident that a more middle road party would have emerged with a better deal given greater commonality with negotiating partners hence more "trust." They probably could have done this without forcing capital controls for 2 and half weeks.

The current admin in terms of results have emerged with nothing radical whatsoever. The only thing that one can claim as victory is the 80B of refinancing, its very hard to determine whether this would have been smaller under a more bulk standard centrist party, seems likely that it would not have needed to be 80B.
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Old 07-13-2015, 08:36 AM   #562
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Actually there is a bit more gravy in the deal.

Quote:
Greece will get short-term bridge financing to avoid bankruptcy - separate from the ESM. The amount is estimated to be €7bn by next Monday and another €5bn by mid-August
Quote:
The European Commission will try to mobilise €35bn - outside the ESM loan - to help Greece with growth and job creation.
Interested about the 200% debt to GDP figure as the monies for BO4 come from the ESM (some from IMF), which is not added to national debt.
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Old 07-13-2015, 09:45 AM   #563
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Just 3 days ago I remember arguing with a certain person that this Syriza government was the best government Greece had in a while.... And waiting until banks were bankrupt was the best thing the Greece government could do to start a negotiation....


So they accepted the worse possible deal ever after 6 months of negotiations and put themselves in a position to accept whatever the Eurozone wanted because they had no choice.


The Greeks voted these idiots in?


The funny thing is, this extremely harsh deal may be the medicine that forces Greeks to actually do something to fix their problems instead of yelling and stomping their feet for more money.
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Old 07-13-2015, 11:18 AM   #564
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Here is Bloomberg View roasting Tsipras for "vandalizing" greece in the last year.

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...dalized-greece

Quote:
By the second half of 2014, Tsipras's political promises were popular enough to prompt former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to hold back on fulfilling some of the required bailout terms. He forced early elections in an attempt to regain support for sticking with the bailout, arguing correctly but unsuccessfully that the alternative would be for Greece to exit the euro.
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Old 07-13-2015, 11:22 AM   #565
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Isn't most of the financing used to repay previous debts, meaning that the impact on debt to GDP ratio will not be that big?
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Old 07-13-2015, 11:30 AM   #566
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

this appears to be the extent of the debt relief Greece is getting

Quote:
the Eurogroup stands ready to consider, if necessary, possible additional measures (possible longer grace and payment periods) aiming at ensuring that gross financing needs remain at a sustainable level. These measures will be conditional upon full implementation of the measures to be agreed in a possible new programme and will be considered after the first positive completion of a review.
ie, no guarantees.

it wouldn't stun me if Greece Parliament did not accept the deal. this is markedly worse than the referendum deal the voters rejected. this is certainly a humiliation of Syriza and Tsipiras
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Old 07-13-2015, 11:31 AM   #567
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by MvdB View Post
Isn't most of the financing used to repay previous debts, meaning that the impact on debt to GDP ratio will not be that big?
Not sure how much new debt is added, but also GDP will have fallen during 2 and half weeks of capital controls.
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Old 07-13-2015, 12:11 PM   #568
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
So what exactly is the agenda between Germany and France because more and more this looks like some kind of proxy war between them.
nah, just the good old bad cop, good cop routine

I've found the recent serious comments about the end of euro because of Greece genuinely comical.
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Old 07-13-2015, 12:18 PM   #569
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by seattlelou View Post
The news coverage this morning appears to be much more positive. Everybody happy with the result?
'Meh' is the general opinion I guess. The only surprise is that there's not a more positive spin put on it for the Greeks - maybe the result of so much bad feeling generated or general exhaustion.

Will always be left wondering what would have happened if Tsipras had shown serious intent about leaving the Euro and defaulting.
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Old 07-13-2015, 12:29 PM   #570
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Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
'Meh' is the general opinion I guess. The only surprise is that there's not a more positive spin put on it for the Greeks - maybe the result of so much bad feeling generated or general exhaustion.



Will always be left wondering what would have happened if Tsipras had shown serious intent about leaving the Euro and defaulting.

Do you think the German outline of a temporary (lol) Grexit was genuine? If so it would not be much of a bargaining chip. Grexit is being played as a gun to the Greeks head in the US media.
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Old 07-13-2015, 12:52 PM   #571
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

German finance minister is portrayed as having a hard on for Grexit.
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Old 07-13-2015, 01:07 PM   #572
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by seattlelou View Post
Do you think the German outline of a temporary (lol) Grexit was genuine? If so it would not be much of a bargaining chip. Grexit is being played as a gun to the Greeks head in the US media.
I think the Germans have completely had it with the old/existing Greek ways - and would have preferred a Grexit to a bailout where they don't get everything they want.

Also think the Greeks should have preferred a Grexit to a deal where they give their creditors everything they want
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Old 07-13-2015, 01:07 PM   #573
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by seattlelou View Post
Do you think the German outline of a temporary (lol) Grexit was genuine? If so it would not be much of a bargaining chip. Grexit is being played as a gun to the Greeks head in the US media.
More like Germany tapping a holstered gun with a mean stare in their eyes.

Their ability to use it was never tested because it was clear by then that Tsipras was coming quietly.
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Old 07-13-2015, 01:20 PM   #574
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Apparently Tsipras tried to leave the room at 3am saying Im done, and was told no waize. There is even an internet meme with which ever negotiators head pasted onto Gandalf saying "You shall not pass".

Edit: It was Donald Tusk.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f908e534-2...#axzz3fm3lSXzI

Quote:
Alexis Tsipras of Greece and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, decided after 14 hours of anguished talks that they had reached a dead end. With no room for compromise, neither saw any reason to carry on. Grexit was the only realistic option. As the two leaders made for the door it was Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, who moved to prevent the fatigue and frustration from triggering a historic rupture for the eurozone.
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Old 07-13-2015, 03:32 PM   #575
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

are there proposed assets for the 50b privatization / sale? That is a huge number - anybody know how how they plan to get there? I'm assuming it can't include property (like islands) but I dunno.
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