Greek debt negotiation - Page 21 - Politics and Economics

Yes, but the point is to get terms changed with the EU is a massive ball ache as we are witnessing now.

I was just punting the idea that maybe getting terms changed with other creditors might have been less of a ball ache and also its these very creditors that they are being loaned money to by the EU to pay.

IMF doesn't do write downs for developed countries anyway.

07-12-2015 , 04:10 PM

#502

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Few more months and Greece might not be developed any more

07-12-2015 , 04:14 PM

#503

plexiq

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 2,554

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

Anyone else thinking that Greece's offer of basically everything Germany was asking for after the referendum was pretty genius, in that it very starkly showed German disingenuousness and intractability?

Uh? Germany/Eurogroup was asking for these things for a small ~6 month extension of the 2nd bailout. But the 2nd bailout expired before the referendum and an extension was never on the table after that. They are now considering to negotiate a much bigger 3rd bailout package.

Don't get me wrong, the new conditions do look very tough. But you couldn't possibly expect that the requirements for a 13bn package would stay unchanged when the new package is now for 80bn?

07-12-2015 , 04:15 PM

#504

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,569

It starkly shows how stupid it was to renege on old reforms, install a lying buffoon as Finance Minister and lead negotiator, and then pull the referendum stunt, yes.

The loss of credibility is real. Germany isn't even saying they won't give Greece the money. They are saying they want, unlike for the last package Greece reneged on, some serious guarantees and assurances that the promised reforms will be carried out.

PS: I strongly suspect 80 million will not be enough.

Last edited by grizy; 07-12-2015 at 04:26 PM.

07-12-2015 , 04:24 PM

#505

SenorKeeed

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Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by plexiq

This is semantics to most people. I'm saying it was great PR.

07-12-2015 , 04:27 PM

#506

plexiq

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 2,554

Great PR, yeah maybe. But they have to negotiate the big 3rd package with closed banks now, instead of getting the "easy" 6 month extension first.

07-12-2015 , 04:30 PM

#507

SenorKeeed

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Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Well I think they want to leave the Euro. This is a great way to do it IMO, convincing a reluctant populace that Germany is to blame.

07-12-2015 , 04:31 PM

#508

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by chytry

IMF doesn't do write downs for developed countries anyway.

It does not have to be a write down, and well maybe when a country faces 200% Debt to GDP it might want think outside the box one time.

07-12-2015 , 04:33 PM

#509

daca

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,499

The Germans have too many lawyers. Some of these plans are insane.

Focus on the important parts like bakery liberalisation.

07-12-2015 , 04:37 PM

#510

chytry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

It does not have to be a write down, and well maybe when a country faces 200% Debt to GDP it might want think outside the box one time.

they want 50 billion in escrow now

07-12-2015 , 04:38 PM

#511

plexiq

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 2,554

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

Well I think they want to leave the Euro. This is a great way to do it IMO, convincing a reluctant populace that Germany is to blame.

This will be very tough to sell. About 80% of the population was pro EURO and Tsipras promised them he would be able to deliver a deal within 24-48h in the case of "NO" vote. The EU already warned that there would be a very significant risk of a Grexit.

Pretty sure that Tsipras is done if he can't get a deal. His party/coalition is already starting to crack as it is.

07-12-2015 , 04:39 PM

#512

SenorKeeed

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Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by plexiq

Right, this is exactly why it was such a great PR move. He doesn't have to sell it, it's being imposed by the insane German proposal.

07-12-2015 , 04:50 PM

#513

plexiq

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 2,554

I agree that the referendum was mostly a PR thing, and especially the timing only made any sense if Syriza planned to leave the euro zone.

But we'll see how this plays out. The pro-EU parties in Greece should be able to communicate this as a huge Tsipras failure in the case of a Grexit.

07-12-2015 , 04:53 PM

#514

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 46,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

Right, this is exactly why it was such a great PR move. He doesn't have to sell it, it's being imposed by the insane German proposal.

That could make it good politics as well as PR. The lack of trust is not manufactured and it's quite possible that such contentious measures could fail to get through even if the current government was totally committed.

Maybe his next great PR move is to resign.

Last edited by chezlaw; 07-12-2015 at 04:59 PM.

07-12-2015 , 05:10 PM

#515

seattlelou

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 31,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

Well I think they want to leave the Euro. This is a great way to do it IMO, convincing a reluctant populace that Germany is to blame.

If that is the case well played if he can manage to stay in power. I assume that is his wish.

07-12-2015 , 05:14 PM

#516

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

So what exactly is the agenda between Germany and France because more and more this looks like some kind of proxy war between them.

07-12-2015 , 05:17 PM

#517

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Also totally willing at this point to bet on this being the last can kick.

If we end up in this situation again with Greece needing substantial refinancing to make good existing repayments, its Grexit.

Also this process can be described as crush the can before kicking it.

07-12-2015 , 05:25 PM

#518

frommagio

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 4,453

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

Germany is looking for basic trustworthiness on the part of Greece, and unfortunately that's not coming easily. After several bailouts gone bad and six unpleasant months of open antagonism from the new regime, Europe would be foolish to spew another 50-80 billion down the bottomless drain. Irresponsible government gonna act irresponsibly.

This is all charity anyway; better to end the fiction, allow the exit, and direct the charitable funds to the people of Greece while they rebuild their economy and hopefully develop a functioning government.

07-12-2015 , 05:27 PM

#519

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

Well I think they want to leave the Euro. This is a great way to do it IMO, convincing a reluctant populace that Germany is to blame.

If they want to leave, this is pretty clown shoes:

Quote:

So the first rather chilling thing I've learned, from well-placed bankers, is there have been no conversations between the Bank of Greece, the government or regulators and Greece's commercial banks about the technicalities of leaving the euro and adopting a new currency.
This is astonishing - and some would say pretty close to criminal - given that on Wednesday night the president of the European Council, former Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, was explicit that this weekend's negotiations were all about whether Greece would stay in the eurozone.
"There have been absolutely no talks with the authorities on what we would do if we leave the euro - no technical preparations, nothing that we are aware of," said one senior banker.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33497877

07-12-2015 , 05:29 PM

#520

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Let Greece exit then send in a development QANGO staffed by Germans with a 50B development fund, because yea, its all charity at this point.

07-12-2015 , 05:31 PM

#521

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Anonymous source saying he isn't aware of any discussions? As far as the basis for a news story, that is a complete and utter joke.

07-12-2015 , 05:35 PM

#522

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 46,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

If it goes through then see you in n years time. Though your second line is a bit of a constraint - much future can kicking could be framed differently.

and yes it's a battle between Germany and France. Plenty of other battles going on as well but with the UK on the sidelines at the moment that's the main one. The ever closer union is in real jeopardy.

07-12-2015 , 05:37 PM

#523

longmissedblind

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,733

Here's a tweet from today: "Troika needs to be brought to the European Court of Justice for starting a ponzi scheme and enforcing it with austerity"

07-12-2015 , 05:41 PM

#524

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

Anonymous source saying he isn't aware of any discussions? As far as the basis for a news story, that is a complete and utter joke.

Robert Peston is very very solid and would not make such comments unless his sources are reliable.

07-12-2015 , 05:43 PM

#525

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by chezlaw

You really think that with all the hand wringing this time, the next time where said wringing will increase exponentially, they still crush and kick the can?

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