Greek debt negotiation - Page 20 - Politics and Economics

Two Plus Two Forums Other Topics Politics

Greek debt negotiation

...

Page 20 of 28

First

10 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Last

Page 20 of 28

First

10 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Last

07-11-2015 , 05:23 PM

#476

daca

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,499

and yeah crashing your economy to force people to give you money, when those people werent too keen on the idea in the first place, probably wasnt a great plan, even if it looked fine on paper.

07-11-2015 , 05:53 PM

#477

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 46,881

Quote:

Originally Posted by daca

this is the newer one with Latvia and Lithuania apparently https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJqPdf9UMAAcntU.jpg:large

Greece + Germany, France, Italy and Spain is a little under 80% as far as I can tell, so you can probably get there somehow.

Cobbling together another few percent would be trivial. There's only a few of them who might be dead set against

Quote:

Originally Posted by plexiq

From what I read it is not yet clear whether they can use the emergency 85% clause in this situation. This can only be used if lack of action "...would threaten the economic and financial sustainability of the euro area".

It doesn't have to be clear and in practice they only have to say it's threatening and there's enough agreement this is a crises. If any court could or wanted to rule it illegal it would be too late.

07-11-2015 , 06:07 PM

#478

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 46,881

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Well I just want to see how Germans react this time before entering into a friendly wager.

Politicians always amaze me with their can kicking, infact can kicking is one of the major flaws in our political economic organisation which incentives kicking a can past the next election.

Its interesting what will happen in Greece.

Next year or so is going to be rough as sandpaper, they elected a radical we will take a hard line party that promised no more austerity, yet has totally renegaded on that promise.

Greeks have elected a radical party, that all said and done has achieved nothing remotely radical, a bigger loan yes and possibly yet to be quantified debt restructuring, but these are outcomes that still belong well within the bounds of business as usual. The main driver of the move to the left still remains, aggressive deficit reduction.

As the situation worsens on the ground and it will, where do the Greek electorate go?

Fair enough.

What happens with Varoufakis will be interesting. He stayed away from the vote in parliament which is very wise politically. he could make a serious comeback although he may be seduced by celebrity instead

07-11-2015 , 07:28 PM

#479

seattlelou

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 31,584

A hardy lol euros seems to be in order.

07-11-2015 , 07:32 PM

#480

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by WeLikeSportz

A bailout will work only if Greece has an austerity plan

They have one.

Austerity has kinda jumped the shark in Greece at this point.

07-11-2015 , 09:24 PM

#481

seattlelou

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 31,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

They have one.

Austerity has kinda jumped the shark in Greece at this point.

How do you keep the banks from collapsing? It seems pretty foolish to have any money in a DDA account.

07-11-2015 , 10:20 PM

#482

Dutch101

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,987

The local newspaper said that part of the new deal needs unanimous approval from all the Euro countries which means Finland can block it. Last time Finland got its own special deal to get them to approve but they are not likely to do that again.

07-12-2015 , 06:15 AM

#483

daca

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,499

For Greece this is how the negotiations should have looked from the start. With them splitting the Eurozone and the hardliners on the defensive with more of the public against them. Open banks and a growing economy would have made everything easier too.

Instead they've spent 6 months irritating opponents, pushing away allies and adding to the amount they're asking for.

07-12-2015 , 07:52 AM

#484

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 46,881

Quote:

Originally Posted by daca

It's impossible to have done that. The country leaders have basically no power until suddenly they get together and the real political business starts. Everything else is done quietly by the institutions amidst loud but largely irrelevant noise by those leaders.

I'm not sure how to judge Greece approach, if they get a deal and change the focus of the EU institutions towards sorting out this mess properly once everyone has stopped looking then that's worth a very high price.

07-12-2015 , 10:26 AM

#485

seattlelou

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 31,584

So we struggle on into next week with the banks still closed?

07-12-2015 , 11:47 AM

#486

Kneel B4 Zod

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by daca

this is arguably the biggest problem with Syriza, and there are many of them. You have various independent European countries openly saying they don't trust Greece - they aren't even necessarily disagreeing on technical terms, but on the basis that Syriza is full of **** and can't be trusted. impossible to negotiate a good deal for your country when this is the case. and this is not just the Germans but various countries.

07-12-2015 , 11:52 AM

#487

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Could not Greece have cut new deals with the IMF and ECB so that they dont have to keep asking the EU for so much moneis to payback loans to the above.

07-12-2015 , 11:58 AM

#488

seattlelou

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 31,584

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Could not Greece have cut new deals with the IMF and ECB so that they dont have to keep asking the EU for so much moneis to payback loans to the above.

I don't think the IMF does hair cuts. Argentina paid back the IMF in full as they were privileged creditors.

07-12-2015 , 12:48 PM

#489

Tien

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 8,626

50b of collateral is asked now. My God, talk about being raked over the coals completely.

07-12-2015 , 12:49 PM

#490

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,570

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Could not Greece have cut new deals with the IMF and ECB so that they dont have to keep asking the EU for so much moneis to payback loans to the above.

Negotiating with IMF is still negotiating with the Euros. Germany, France, Spain, and Italy make up just under 20% of IMF votes and US another 15%. Not exact figures but pretty sure I am in ballpark.

ECB already ran out of bullets to help Greece. They could have more bullets if they made different decisions in the last few years but as it stands, ECB is running out of ways to keep Greek banks officially solvent.

Draghi's policy has always been "I am not swinging the axe but I am not helping either."

Last edited by grizy; 07-12-2015 at 12:57 PM.

07-12-2015 , 01:51 PM

#491

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Its not just keeping Banks solvent. Next two payments that were scheduled (before this all blew up) where to the ECB.

07-12-2015 , 02:25 PM

#492

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,570

Yeah that too.

07-12-2015 , 02:52 PM

#493

chytry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Could not Greece have cut new deals with the IMF and ECB so that they dont have to keep asking the EU for so much moneis to payback loans to the above.

What new deals? They are bankrupt without ECB's help.

07-12-2015 , 02:55 PM

#494

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,570

Greek banks aren't even pretending they are solvent at this point. Multiple news sources citing "senior banking officials in Greece" or some such variant that Greek government hasn't been talking to the Greek banks at all and they really have no end game if ECB pulls the plug.

07-12-2015 , 03:17 PM

#495

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by chytry

What new deals? They are bankrupt without ECB's help.

Im very much thinking out load, but anything along the lines of can we pay less, less often etc, can we have some moah please.

IMF has admitted debt is unsustainable.

07-12-2015 , 03:23 PM

#496

chytry

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 4,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Im very much thinking out load, but anything along the lines of can we pay less, less often etc, can we have some moah please.

IMF has admitted debt is unsustainable.

That's not a problem as long as they reform. Nobody really thinks they can pay it back.

07-12-2015 , 03:42 PM

#497

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by chytry

That's not a problem as long as they reform. Nobody really thinks they can pay it back.

Yes, but the point is to get terms changed with the EU is a massive ball ache as we are witnessing now.

I was just punting the idea that maybe getting terms changed with other creditors might have been less of a ball ache and also its these very creditors that they are being loaned money to by the EU to pay.

07-12-2015 , 03:46 PM

#498

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

So apparently the now proposed financing of 82-86B would push Greed debt to 200% of GDP.

Seems legit.

07-12-2015 , 03:51 PM

#499

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Anyone else thinking that Greece's offer of basically everything Germany was asking for after the referendum was pretty genius, in that it very starkly showed German disingenuousness and intractability?