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Old 06-29-2015, 01:07 PM   #26
seattlelou
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

I wonder if the Greek unemployed will migrate to Germany and other more hospitable labor markets. That was the hope that labor when they created the Euro. Labor markets would be less sticky.
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Old 06-29-2015, 01:21 PM   #27
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by Renton555 View Post
How wrong is it to assume that this exact type of event is in the near future of Spain and France? I'm really asking because I don't follow those countries that closely. I only know that they have very high unemployment rates and debt to gdp ratios that aren't that far from Greece.
The bond market doesn't seem to think it's very likely.
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Old 06-29-2015, 01:22 PM   #28
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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I wonder if the Greek unemployed will migrate to Germany and other more hospitable labor markets. That was the hope that labor when they created the Euro. Labor markets would be less sticky.
This still wouldn't fix Greece's problems because the local tax base would be moving away.
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Old 06-29-2015, 01:23 PM   #29
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Germany's inflation phobia is at least as great a cause of the current situation as Greece's supply side problems. Every round of fiscal cuts in Greece has resulted in plummeting tax revenues as the economy tanks and unlike in the US monetary policy can't counteract cause 4-5% German inflation = Weimar or something.
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Old 06-29-2015, 01:24 PM   #30
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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This still wouldn't fix Greece's problems because the local tax base would be moving away.

Less people being supported by the government would help. The unemployed are a net loss to the economy.
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Old 06-29-2015, 01:33 PM   #31
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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I don't care if you're sympathetic or not.

1) Austerity has been proven an inferior measure in the past decade
.
I dont what anyone to think I support Austerity, but hyperbolic statement seems hyperbolic when you consider how well the UK has done relatively to most of EU with some ******g pretty hard core austerity.
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Old 06-29-2015, 01:35 PM   #32
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

People blaming Germany need to understand that the current impasse is all about Greece receiving a loan so it can pay back another loan it all ready owes the IMF.
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Old 06-29-2015, 01:37 PM   #33
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by Renton555 View Post
How wrong is it to assume that this exact type of event is in the near future of Spain and France? I'm really asking because I don't follow those countries that closely. I only know that they have very high unemployment rates and debt to gdp ratios that aren't that far from Greece.
France has its problems but its not one of the PIGS and its no where close to Greece problems.

Spain would be ok if it had not had such a ridiculous housing bubble.
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Old 06-29-2015, 01:39 PM   #34
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Old 06-29-2015, 02:11 PM   #35
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
People blaming Germany need to understand that the current impasse is all about Greece receiving a loan so it can pay back another loan it all ready owes the IMF.
That's not what's really going on. You have a country that needs to be restructured economically. Another country who states that process has to be within an unreasonable time frame. You can lay off all the public sector employees in Greece if you wish to. But that isn't going to make it an attractive place for investors all of a sudden.
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Old 06-29-2015, 04:41 PM   #36
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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That's not what's really going on. You have a country that needs to be restructured economically. Another country who states that process has to be within an unreasonable time frame. You can lay off all the public sector employees in Greece if you wish to. But that isn't going to make it an attractive place for investors all of a sudden.
Again with the silly hyperbole. No one is asking for all the public sector employees to be laid off.

For the current bailout to payback a previous bailout the sticking point has been a raise in VAT and an increase in the Pension age for PSW, both entirely reasonable (short term) requests for a country that is effectively fiscally insolvent. The Greek Government said No waiz, we will raise tax on business instead, which is much worse fiscal measure in terms of attracting investment.
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Old 06-29-2015, 04:55 PM   #37
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Is it actually helpful to call what is happening in Greece: "Austerity"?

If a country still has fiscal solvency and actually has the option of either spending more or spending significantly less, then the option to spend less should be called Austerity.

If a country is just absolutely totally flat broke and does not have the option to fiscally increase spending and has to borrow from non business as usual creditors such as the IMF, then calling the resulting inevitable spending cuts Austerity conflates the circumstances to much with the above circumstances imo. What is happening in Greece is very different to what is happening in the UK for example and to call them both austerity seems lazy and short hand and not very helpful imo.
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Old 06-29-2015, 06:02 PM   #38
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Bayern goalkeeper in defending ZeGermans shocker (more on p.94)
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Old 06-29-2015, 06:29 PM   #39
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Again with the silly hyperbole. No one is asking for all the public sector employees to be laid off.

For the current bailout to payback a previous bailout the sticking point has been a raise in VAT and an increase in the Pension age for PSW, both entirely reasonable (short term) requests for a country that is effectively fiscally insolvent. The Greek Government said No waiz, we will raise tax on business instead, which is much worse fiscal measure in terms of attracting investment.
You are obtuse if you think that's hyperbole.
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Old 06-29-2015, 06:34 PM   #40
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

In no way is it obtuse at all. Its silly hyperbole and also a ridiculous strawman that does nothing to forward your side of the debate.

Germany wants restructuring to fast let me refer you to a hypothetical laying off of all public sector workers?????

Try again.
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Old 06-29-2015, 06:56 PM   #41
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by tchaz View Post
Bayern goalkeeper in defending ZeGermans shocker (more on p.94)

vait, vatt?
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Old 06-29-2015, 10:55 PM   #42
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
The whole process is basically rest of Europe holding the money hostage until Greece implements much needed structural and social reforms.

Every time Greece actually does something, IMF and Co. gives the debt a haircut in market value without changing the book balance.

Notice even in the graphic posted by Greece's MoF, 5.6 billion more goes in Greece than goes out of Greece.

Last edited by grizy; 06-29-2015 at 11:22 PM.
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Old 06-29-2015, 11:14 PM   #43
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

How's about the Greek PM goes on the TV and asks the ROW to please buy a couple of bottles of Greek olive oil? Would that help at all? I figure he's already in so deep that he ought to give it a try, nothing to lose, etc.
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Old 06-30-2015, 12:02 AM   #44
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

The latest offer was pretty straightforward. You can't pay for your pensions so you need to increase the pension age and you need more income so increase VAT. Especially the first one is so obvious something they need to do that I don't understand how you can run an election on the promise you won't do it. Every other country in Europe has done it when they were struggling.

Greece also refuses to fix a lot of their bureaucratic problems so even if you decide that austerity isn't the solution and just give them the money you might end up in the same spot again later. It is also not fair to the rest of the PIGS that did work hard to get their economy in order.
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Old 06-30-2015, 02:50 AM   #45
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
I dont what anyone to think I support Austerity, but hyperbolic statement seems hyperbolic when you consider how well the UK has done relatively to most of EU with some ******g pretty hard core austerity.
UK isn't part of the monetary union. The UK and US carry debt levels (as percentage of GDP) about the same as a place like Spain (slightly worse actually, if I remember right), but they have their own currencies. It makes a huge difference.
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Old 06-30-2015, 02:51 AM   #46
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Again with the silly hyperbole. No one is asking for all the public sector employees to be laid off.
A huge part of the political/ideological agenda of the undemocratically chosen people running Europe is the destruction of the public sector. That is clearly one of their goals, and definitely they are achieving it in places like Spain and Portugal.
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Old 06-30-2015, 06:25 AM   #47
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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A huge part of the political/ideological agenda of the undemocratically chosen people running Europe is the destruction of the public sector. That is clearly one of their goals, and definitely they are achieving it in places like Spain and Portugal.
Who are these undemocratically chosen people? All the people I would list as running Europe were democratically elected. On top of that each individual countries parlement still has the final say.
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Old 06-30-2015, 06:33 AM   #48
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

The other part is even the heads of the "troika" aren't looking to dismantle the public sector.

To the contrary, they are looking to preserve the public sector with more fiscally responsible policies. That means higher taxes and reigning pension funds in to sustainable levels.
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Old 06-30-2015, 06:37 AM   #49
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Who are these undemocratically chosen people? All the people I would list as running Europe were democratically elected. On top of that each individual countries parlement still has the final say.
Depends on who you think is really running Europe.

Most of this fiasco boils down to banks making bad loans and refusing to mark down their assets to reflect their true value as they go bad - since this would reveal the banks to be bankrupt, as their liabilities far exceed their assets.

It is all a gigantic ongoing bank bailout.
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Old 06-30-2015, 09:20 AM   #50
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Depends on who you think is really running Europe.

Most of this fiasco boils down to banks making bad loans and refusing to mark down their assets to reflect their true value as they go bad - since this would reveal the banks to be bankrupt, as their liabilities far exceed their assets.

It is all a gigantic ongoing bank bailout.
The above has almost nothing to do with what is happening in Greece.
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