Greek debt negotiation - Page 15 - Politics and Economics

I thought we were discussing generally but of course you're correct about Greece. But it's still true for Europe as a whole and looking at the news today, it looks like we pretty much have a fiscal union, with sadistic characteristics.

07-09-2015 , 04:52 PM

#352

grizy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Loooooooooooooooooool.

Isn't that the line the Belgian EMP fed Tsipras?

07-09-2015 , 05:30 PM

#353

seattlelou

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So the deal Tsipras is proposing is worse from the Greek prospective than the pre-referendum offer? If he can sell that he is a master of domestic politics.

07-09-2015 , 05:33 PM

#354

Kneel B4 Zod

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Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Anyway looks like the new proposals from Greece are very austere, basically rendering the No in the referendum totally moot

in an absurd situation, this might be the most absurd sequence of events. What sort of outcome was Tsipras expecting?

Hold vote on austerity >> reject austerity >> wait a few days >>> accept worse austerity ?

btw I agree with Krugman. I think the Euro zone is now best off without Greece and Greece is best off suffering through some time of chaos by introducing it's own currency (rather than accepting another austerity package). but either way Greece needs massive reform and not the leadership of communists.

07-09-2015 , 05:38 PM

#355

chezlaw

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Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 46,846

Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

So the deal Tsipras is proposing is worse from the Greek prospective than the pre-referendum offer? If he can sell that he is a master of domestic politics.

There will just be promise about something good alongside it and it will probably even be a genuine promise.

Unlikely he even has to sell it. If Tsipras supports it then there will just be a collective sigh of relief that the banks are reopening etc. Choppier political waters might come later but that's par for the course.

07-09-2015 , 05:51 PM

#356

Tien

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Tsipras and his entire legion of cohorts are just pure amateurs running on nothing.

Could have made a deal when he first joined that would have been much better than the deal he is doing now, which he has absolutely zero leverage to work with.

Dicked around for 6 months wasting everyone's time and doesn't understand the hand he has to play with gets progressively worse over time.

I feel bad for the Greeks, but they voted every single one of their incompetent leaders in.

07-09-2015 , 05:56 PM

#357

Phone Booth

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You guys are missing that Syriza has been okay with this all along as long as they were getting significant debt relief, whereas Germany unreasonably drew the line in the sand on any debt relief. Also, what they were getting in the previous deal was the money they were already supposed to receive from the previous bailout, whereas I think here they are getting way more additional money. Not all details are available, but this seems to be what's going on.

Syriza has pretty much been reasonable all along.

07-09-2015 , 06:13 PM

#358

Phone Booth

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It's hilarious that you guys bought into the bizarre narrative that Syriza has been refusing to negotiate and practicing brinkmanship or something that what's currently on the table seems like total capitulation for them, when they've been pretty much conceding almost as much all along for far less.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/06/...-at-11th-hour/

http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...ommon-currency

And lolwow @ the euros not wanting tax increases on the rich/corporations/etc.

07-09-2015 , 06:18 PM

#359

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phone Booth

Syriza has pretty much been reasonable all along.

Phoooonebooooothhhhhhhh.

07-09-2015 , 06:21 PM

#360

Kneel B4 Zod

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Well we need to see what sort of debt cut they are getting. Germany can veto and it doesnt seem like they are going to cede much

07-09-2015 , 06:27 PM

#361

Phone Booth

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Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Phoooonebooooothhhhhhhh.

I know not to expect much from you, but exactly what on earth is your opinion? Your position seems to be that austerity is bad, spending is bad, Euro is bad, drachma is bad, Syriza is bad, previous Greek governments are bad, blah blah, phone booth something something, etc.

07-09-2015 , 06:29 PM

#362

wishingwell

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Finally someone is standing up to fuehrer Merkel and her vision of a 4th Reich. What the germans couldn't accomplish twice on the battlefield is now being attempted through economic terrorism. The allies should have never let the Germans get a state after WW2. Instead they bailed their asses out through the Marshall plan. When Germany is in a similar position to help they instead put down the iron boot on the Greeks' necks.

07-09-2015 , 06:31 PM

#363

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

"Getting more money" obviously needs a lot of clarification as the bailout money they were supposed to receive a few days ago, was merely to pay off a loan to the IMF. They were being given a loan to meet payments on a loan.

This just seems the worst possible outcome, austerity continues but in an economy that has just had its banks closed for a week, snuffing out the .5% GDP growth that was predicated for this year.

The only options that brought synthesis to the crises where massive debt restructuring or Grexit. Instead it looks just like more of the same. It cant be, no one is that dumb.

07-09-2015 , 06:32 PM

#364

Phone Booth

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It looks like the Euros don't want to look wrong on their neoliberal/austerian position so they are going get the budget cuts they've demanded all along but are going juice the deal with a large bailout package and some debt relief with a direct humanitarian aid which essentially amounts to fiscal stimulus that counters the austerity.

It's incredible how the European taxpayers are getting fleeced to allow austerity to save face.

07-09-2015 , 06:33 PM

#365

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phone Booth

Yea for Greece at this point most things are very bad.

Least bad actual thing that can happen is Greece leaving the Euro.

07-09-2015 , 06:36 PM

#366

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Calling what is happening in Greece austerity is not at all accurate imo.

Quote:

A country that still has good credit and can choose to spend more, but actually cuts, such as the UK, this is austerity.

A country that is fiscally insolvent cutting is something else entirely.

You hear a lot about "austerity" in the context of the Greek situation. This is in part because Greek fiscal policy has been very austere over the past several years, with the government cutting spending more drastically than any other in Europe.

But mostly you hear a lot about austerity because austerity was a very real issue in British and American politics during many of the relevant years, and if you read article on the internet in English you find yourself exposed to the preoccupations of Americans and British people.

In Greece’s case, however, austerity is largely a red herring.

In the US or the UK, austerity was a choice: financial markets were happy to keep lending the two countries more and more money to cushion their recessions.

But the Greek government didn't have a choice: it couldn’t run a bigger budget deficit. Nobody would lend them the money! Greece’s European partners have demanded a lot of austerity from the Greek government in exchange for their money, but absent that money Greek fiscal policy would have to be even more austere.

Often, when people criticize the austerity measures in Greece, what they are saying is that Germany and France should have given Greece more money. And maybe they should have! But they didn't, and in the absence of such subsidies, running a more stimulative economic policy wasn't an option for Greece.

http://www.vox.com/2015/6/30/8868363...ault-austerity

07-09-2015 , 06:44 PM

#367

Phone Booth

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Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

"Getting more money" obviously needs a lot of clarification as the bailout money they were supposed to receive a few days ago, was merely to pay off a loan to the IMF.

They wanted Greece to basically return to the budget targets for ~15B. Now they are talking about 50B + humanitarian aid + debt relief for the same targets.

Quote:

This just seems the worst possible outcome, austerity continues but in an economy that has just had its banks closed for a week, snuffing out the .5% GDP growth that was predicated for this year.

Quote:

The only options that brought synthesis to the crises where massive debt restructuring

It's the worst possible outcome but you've been basically cheerleading for this, right?

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

In a vacuum, I can get behind the idea of realistic debt relief, stimulus etc etc, but the problem is Greece as an institution is just to mal-adjusted to recieve such.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

I am keen to see specifically in black and white which reforms demanded by the Troika you think have been so terrible.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

That you should just throw money at an economy regardless of major structural problems is far from mainstream economics.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

Also asking to put up VAT and increase pension age, the actual specific reforms (which I suspect you dont actually know, yet are hating on) which caused this impasse are lunatic fringe stuff????

Exactly what on earth are you're arguing for? You're against austerity and potentially want massive debt restructuring but you don't want debt relief or stimulus because Greece is maladjusted? And troika's reforms are so good but now that Greece submits them, they are the worst possible outcome?

07-09-2015 , 06:53 PM

#368

Phone Booth

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Apparently this is what Greece is asking for:

"The Greek proposal... includes funding of the country's financing needs... for three years, debt adjustment and a front-loaded investment package of €35 billion," a government source said."

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0709/713574-greece-economy/

So they want the ~15B that was promised earlier in return for the austerity package, debt adjustment and "investment package" of 35B - this is apparently why people were talking about 50B in bailout.

07-09-2015 , 06:54 PM

#369

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

That you think those quotes are cheer leading for the current outcome if that outcome is more austerity just shows how rabidly polarized you have become on this issue, you seem to have quite the those that are not for me are against me complex there.

To be clear though, I thought putting the whole country into currency control over increased pension age and increased VAT was wrong, but those measures are far from austerity and far from lunatic fringe. However its obvious I might have to revise that opinion in light of however this deal works out.

Last edited by O.A.F.K.1.1; 07-09-2015 at 07:01 PM.

07-09-2015 , 06:58 PM

#370

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Greek Civil Servants gonna make bank.

07-09-2015 , 06:58 PM

#371

Phone Booth

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Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

This just seems the worst possible outcome, austerity continues but in an economy that has just had its banks closed for a week, snuffing out the .5% GDP growth that was predicated for this year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

For the current bailout to payback a previous bailout the sticking point has been a raise in VAT and an increase in the Pension age for PSW, both entirely reasonable (short term) requests for a country that is effectively fiscally insolvent.

Worst possible outcome and entirely reasonable.

07-09-2015 , 07:00 PM

#372

Phone Booth

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Quote:

Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1

I'm not polarized at all. You were rooting for Grexit and also incoherently rooting for austerity and against austerity at the same time. I'm pretty much okay with the compromise given the situation. There's much more disagreement within your own head than I have with any realistic observer.

07-09-2015 , 07:04 PM

#373

Phone Booth

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I mean this whole humanitarian aid thing is brilliant political messaging - who can argue against humanitarian aid? If "humanitarian aid" effectively amounts to significant stimulus and/or debt relief, that's a massive win for the moderates such as myself. I don't really have any problem with European taxpayers wasting money to fix a problem that could've been fixed for much less.

07-09-2015 , 07:05 PM

#374

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phone Booth

I'm not polarized at all.

Anyone who thinks:

Quote:

Syriza has pretty much been reasonable all along.

Is polarized to the point of hysteria.

As for the quotes they are entirely consistent when taken in the context of the discussion, nice try tho.

I can see how someone with an opinion more nuanced than one side must be completely in the right, whilst the other side must be completely in the wrong would confuse you.

Last edited by O.A.F.K.1.1; 07-09-2015 at 07:11 PM.