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Old 06-03-2015, 04:21 PM   #1
Summoner500
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Greek debt negotiation

im kinda confused but what is exactly the objective of this negotiation? if greek goverment succeed what exactly will it gain? will it be a 3rd memorandum?
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Old 06-04-2015, 10:15 AM   #2
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

An additional tranche of funding for the ongoing bailout (240 bn Euro and counting) as well as either an extension on loan payments due to the ECB, IMF and others, or some level of forgiveness on outstanding debt (haircut). In exchange, they will need to enact significant tax and structural reform in order to increase their primary budget surplus to certain targets over the next 3-5 years.
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Old 06-28-2015, 11:22 PM   #3
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

They have seem to have failed. Greece has closed its banks for a week and limiting ATM withdrawals to 60 euros a day when the atm's get turned back on Tuesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0P40EO20150628
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Old 06-28-2015, 11:35 PM   #4
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Who is the most responsible person for this and can he be shamed mercilessly?
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Old 06-28-2015, 11:41 PM   #5
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Other people's money thatcher .win
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Old 06-29-2015, 12:40 AM   #6
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by LASJayhawk View Post
They have seem to have failed. Greece has closed its banks for a week and limiting ATM withdrawals to 60 euros a day when the atm's get turned back on Tuesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0P40EO20150628
They haven't failed yet.

This round of negotiations is just getting to it's head and you wouldn't be wise to bet much against whatever counts as success.
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Old 06-29-2015, 04:28 AM   #7
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by Howard Beale View Post
Who is the most responsible person for this and can he be shamed mercilessly?
The German state.
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Old 06-29-2015, 05:27 AM   #8
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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The German state.
Booring
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Old 06-29-2015, 05:43 AM   #9
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by Howard Beale View Post
Who is the most responsible person for this and can he be shamed mercilessly?

Not sure it's a person so much as a general proclivity toward communism. Something's in the water there.
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:02 AM   #10
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the next week. Default looking quite likely, the next question is: Drachmas or will Greece stay in the Euro with strict capital controls and try to muddle along? Maybe the first is the better long-term option for the Greek economy but it'll be a mess either way.
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:13 AM   #11
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by Howard Beale View Post
Who is the most responsible person for this and can he be shamed mercilessly?
The ranking of blame goes something like this:

Greek politicians pre-crisis and the people that voted for them (corruption, spending and cheating their way into a dumb currency union).

The people that came up with the Euro (just an dumb idea in general and they let in Greece despite knowing they cheated).

The ECB / people that made the rules for the Euro (the reluctance to do monetary stimulus is just insane and destructive).

Syriza and the people that voted for them (just no idea what they're doing. Things were actually looking like they were getting better, but they destroyed that. Lied to everyone by promising to stay in the Euro while ending austerity. Have handle the negotiations about as badly as is humanly possible and the referendum even worse).

Other Greek politicians post-crisis and the people that voted for them (too slow to implement supply side reforms)

Troika / rest of the Eurozone (Should have let Greece default / restructure their debt early in the crisis. Should have been more generous. Could maybe have done some kind of fiscal stimulus).
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Old 06-29-2015, 08:20 AM   #12
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by daca View Post
The ranking of blame goes something like this:

Greek politicians pre-crisis and the people that voted for them (corruption, spending and cheating their way into a dumb currency union).

The people that came up with the Euro (just an dumb idea in general and they let in Greece despite knowing they cheated).

The ECB / people that made the rules for the Euro (the reluctance to do monetary stimulus is just insane and destructive).

Syriza and the people that voted for them (just no idea what they're doing. Things were actually looking like they were getting better, but they destroyed that. Lied to everyone by promising to stay in the Euro while ending austerity. Have handle the negotiations about as badly as is humanly possible and the referendum even worse).

Other Greek politicians post-crisis and the people that voted for them (too slow to implement supply side reforms)

Troika / rest of the Eurozone (Should have let Greece default / restructure their debt early in the crisis. Should have been more generous. Could maybe have done some kind of fiscal stimulus).
I was going to say that Syriza should move up the list, but everyone above them on the list is so spectacularly bad that it's hard to argue.
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Old 06-29-2015, 10:40 AM   #13
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Quote:
Originally Posted by daca View Post
The ranking of blame goes something like this:

Greek politicians pre-crisis and the people that voted for them (corruption, spending and cheating their way into a dumb currency union).

The people that came up with the Euro (just an dumb idea in general and they let in Greece despite knowing they cheated).

The ECB / people that made the rules for the Euro (the reluctance to do monetary stimulus is just insane and destructive).

Syriza and the people that voted for them (just no idea what they're doing. Things were actually looking like they were getting better, but they destroyed that. Lied to everyone by promising to stay in the Euro while ending austerity. Have handle the negotiations about as badly as is humanly possible and the referendum even worse).

Other Greek politicians post-crisis and the people that voted for them (too slow to implement supply side reforms)

Troika / rest of the Eurozone (Should have let Greece default / restructure their debt early in the crisis. Should have been more generous. Could maybe have done some kind of fiscal stimulus).
I agree with much of what you said, but not with the fat part. We (the European taxpayer) have already been extremely generous in that we've taken on like at least 80% of the Greek debt (and we were not exactly asked whether we wanted to do that) and we wont see much if any of that money again. The problem with a monetary stimulus is that it will only serve to uphold a deeply overblown, corrupt and dysfunctional Greek public sector and the whole cycle of having money, spending it not the way it was supposed to and being broke will start again. Greece has already received incredible amounts of other countries money since being in the EC/EU and did not use it wisely to say the least.
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Old 06-29-2015, 10:45 AM   #14
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

How wrong is it to assume that this exact type of event is in the near future of Spain and France? I'm really asking because I don't follow those countries that closely. I only know that they have very high unemployment rates and debt to gdp ratios that aren't that far from Greece.
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Old 06-29-2015, 10:53 AM   #15
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

In the near future: Very unlikely, also their debt/gdp ratio is much lower than Greece, these countries are not really comparable to Greece anyway. They have their problems but they are not on the same scale.
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Old 06-29-2015, 11:09 AM   #16
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by einsteinaint**** View Post
The German state.

Lol no.
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Old 06-29-2015, 11:11 AM   #17
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Uh, it kind of is Lou.
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Old 06-29-2015, 11:27 AM   #18
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Uh, it kind of is Lou.

So if Germany decided to let Greece handle its own affairs how would Greece look today?
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Old 06-29-2015, 11:31 AM   #19
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Lol, you just asked a ridiculous question if your position is Germany has no responsibility at all in Greece's financial situation.
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Old 06-29-2015, 11:42 AM   #20
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Lol, you just asked a ridiculous question if your position is Germany has no responsibility at all in Greece's financial situation.
I don't think it is a ridiculous question. Where do you find blame with Germany? If your argument is that Gernany should be blamed for the original sin of pushing monetary union in a less than ideal currency zone then I am somewhat sympathetic. If your argument is Germany did not take the ideal steps for saving Greece from itself by mandating austerity I am less sympathetic and even if I accepted that argument completely I would not apportion blame to them. Failing to save Greece from itself is different than causing the crisis.
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Old 06-29-2015, 11:52 AM   #21
Paul D
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

I don't care if you're sympathetic or not.

1) Austerity has been proven an inferior measure in the past decade
2) Germany's name is on Greece's balance sheet
3) Merkel and Co. have been heavy handed in Greece's affair

You can't make a case where Germany doesn't bear some responsibility in today's situation.
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Old 06-29-2015, 11:52 AM   #22
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Uh, it kind of is Lou.
Can you please explain this?
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Old 06-29-2015, 11:58 AM   #23
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

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Originally Posted by Paul D View Post
I don't care if you're sympathetic or not.

1) Austerity has been proven an inferior measure in the past decade
2) Germany's name is on Greece's balance sheet
3) Merkel and Co. have been heavy handed in Greece's affair

You can't make a case where Germany doesn't bear some responsibility in today's situation.
You're not really bridging the gap as to why Germany should be financing Greece's current spending. Sure, sucks to be Greece and austerity is unpleasant, but why should Germany or the IMF pick up the tab? Greece is an independent country.

Of course, Germany does have a lot of responsibility for disastrous euro monetary policy, but the notion of Germany bankrolling a bunch of unrepentant ultraleft crazies in Greece because reasons was always a Krugmanian fantasy that was never going to happen. I mean, why doesn't the U.S. just bail out Greece?
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Old 06-29-2015, 12:24 PM   #24
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Adding to that it was the last two Greek governments that pushed very hard to get the current credit programmes so they could avoid a default and a default of their banks that had much of that debt. Now almost all the debt is in the hands of the other Euro countries and they want a haircut. Understandably that's not very popular. Adding to that many wages and pensions in the public sector are still above the levels of the countries who they get credit from including Germany.
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Old 06-29-2015, 12:52 PM   #25
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Re: Greek debt negotiation

Greece has 25% unemployment and the youth unemployment rate is over 60%. The phrase "can't get blood from a stone" comes to mind.
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