So 240B has been spent by the Greek Gov into a population of 10M and its GDP has still shrunk by 25%?

Its simply not possible even if they used the money to buy dog ****, piled the dog **** up high and then lit it on fire.

Thomas Piketty: “Germany has never repaid.”

I've been seeing more and more of this thinking online. Something along the lines of:
"Greeks don't need the EU, the EU needs Greece for regional security. The EU will do what it takes to keep Greece from drifting North or East."

a) The pre-crisis GDP was blown up artificially by a large debt, Greece's deficit pre-crisis was around 8-9% GDP, which means that around half of government spending was financed by new debt. After the credit market dried out, most of the bailout money was simply needed to keep going, it could not be used to fund anything new.
b) You are assuming that all the money sent into Greece is spent in ways that shows up on a balance sheet and therefore in the GDP. But esp. in Greece a lot of money simply disappears into the shadow economy and/or is channeled abroad.

That's extreme though, Greece do need the EU and will do even if they leave the Euro. The point I was making is that it's the nature of the EU to manage it's way through problems. It's very very good at it even though it always seems to happen 'after it's too late' and I still wouldn't bet against this time.

Not sure regional security is an issue but there have been noises that Germany is concerned about the UK leaving from a security point of view (wrt Russia in particular). I don't know if it's at all plausible that they are concerned Greece could escalate into an existential crises for the EU. Maybe the reverse with this crises providing an opportunity for some new treaty.

stupid greeks have no consideration to what this will do my personal portfolio well screw them.

I say we should kick them out the euro zone, and out of Europe and leave them to rot in there own mess. before people said it was not the Greek peoples fault it was there government well they elected this government and they have shown support in the referendum.

As far as I am concerned the greek people deserve all the mess they should get.

The Greek are underestimating what would happen if the EU provides them bailout money without reform. The moment that happens Spain, Portugal, Italy and France will want the same thing. The countries that would actually end up financing that have no chance getting that through their parliaments. Any party agreeing to that would be voted out the next election and in the case of Holland it might cause the anti-euro party to get into power and force Holland to exit.

The question now is what Greece will do when it finds out that the no vote didn't make a difference and they won't get the money without reforms. Will they let their banks fail and start a new currency or will they fold and reform anyway.

There's no question of bailout money without reforms

It's just about whether a deal acceptable to all can be reached

You seem to have zero idea how capital markets work. Devaluation should have been happening the whole time. It will happen now. It will be severe. Long term it is positive. This is undeniable.

If Greece exits the eurozone and collapses, wouldn't the tourist industry become a boon with depressed prices?

Of course.

I agree with something I just read:


The vote makees it less likely they'll be a deal, but if there is it will be a better deal for Greece (since, ldo, a worse deal or the same deal will never get approved).

Exactly. Plus Cheaper greek labor etc..

In the long term it's probably a better option but the short term will be a **** show.

Long term Greece can just go back to being a third world country like it was before it joined the EU.

The tourist industry will go through a big downturn before it starts booming. Tourist are not going to a country where there is no money in the ATM's and no food in the stores.

Greece tourism can't really boom that much relative to now. The industry has been near saturation for years.

Tourism's share of Greece GDP will probably grow to over 20% but that will have just as much to do with rest of the economy shrinking as tourism booming due to lower costs.

To those that know the Greek situation more, is another bailout going to solve anything in Greece?

Are structural issues that brought Greece to where it is today be fixed or will we be back where we are 5 years from now if Greece gets a bailout.

They are already on the right path, they are just not moving fast enough. The current government also refuses to reform in certain areas that are obvious problems like the pension system. With the previous government I would have expected them to eventually get to a point where no more money needed to be pumped into their economy but I am not so sure with the current one. Giving them money might just be throwing it in a bottomless pit.

Even if one accepts the ridiculous and difficult to defend narrative that this is all due to irresponsible governance, spending what isn't there, etc., that doesn't mean that the Greeks themselves caused the debt problems. That vast majority of Greeks, like the vasty majority of Italians or Germans, are just peons going to work and doing their jobs, if they are fortunate enough to have them. A banking and governance structure plagued by corruption and criminality is not the fault of the ordinary people, and what is going on now is that, slowly, they are reacting. So far the reaction has been peaceful, but as this degenerates more, and more people pile on blaming the hungry unemployed father for what some banker did, things might change for the worse.

Yanis Varoufakis is standing down. "I shall wear the creditors' loathing with pride."

Sounds like a step taken to help with finding a way forward.

..problem in europe is not greece but germany..just look who is winning money all these -crisis -years in europe..ofcourse there wasnt anywhere,anytime,anyone political leader to make a stand...only thing left for this stand is to be made by european citizents..

e.gi m refering to govermenments and organizations not simple people..
people duty is to search for the hidden picture and not be propaganda s victims(this is for greek people too).
sorry for my english..doing my best

So what is the trioika's next playa? I am guessing they let the banks fail and see if the government stands.

,,Dont think USA like these games ..they want stability in this area..so something a bit better for greece but not enough in the long run is probable..

Firing Varoufakis buys time. Draghi is not going to be solely responsible for the fall. He'll give Greek banks enough money for $60 withdrawls for a week or two, essentially kicking the can over to EC.

Hopefully the opposite....pull a Costanza and just show up with the funds regardless of what you said before.