Quote:
Originally Posted by Namath12
Is Flake really vulnerable? I've been hearing this a lot but haven't really seen anything in depth on it. I know there was talk of AZ going for Clinton before it didn't.
It depends how you define vulnerable, I guess. Here are the last few Senate/Presidential races in Arizona:
2004:
Bush wins 54.9-44.4
2006:
Kyl wins 53.3-43.5
2008:
McCain wins 53.6-45.1 (Presidential)
2010
McCain wins 58.7-34.5 (Senate)
2012:
Flake wins 49.2-46.2
Romney wins 53.7-44.6
2016
McCain wins 53.7-40.7 (5.4% went to the Green party)
Trump wins 48.7-45.1
Given the current climate, it's winnable. Nevada is the easiest to flip, followed by Arizona. After that, based on Cook PVI it's Cruz's seat in Texas - obviously a big gap between Arizona and Texas, so there's not much of a choice here. They've gotta go after Flake aggressively.
There best/only shot at flipping a seat elsewhere would be to funnel money to a conservative third party challenger in the general election and try to siphon off enough of the Republican vote to make it competitive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich
Trump only won by 3% or so. AZ obv isn't trumpland with the wall thing but dems gotta give it a shot, better off there than say trying to retain the WV senate seat. Otherwise it's full defense in 18 for the senate outside of Heller.
I disagree with the bolded. The Dems who are in red states obviously did something right to win there, they know their states, and they should be given the full resources to hold those valuable seats. There are two seats that are realistically flippable, Nevada and Arizona, and the Democrats should spare no expense on those. This isn't an either/or situation.