Quote:
Originally Posted by master3004
Yeah you're right. There is no possibility of a 3 point swing
Not based on election politics in 2018. Maybe a couple moderates won't vote for it on principle. Perhaps Cory Gardner in Colorado or Susan Collins in Maine.
The first time around, Collins, Heller, Lee and Paul opposed it. But Lee and Paul were because it wasn't going far enough. Maybe they still feel that way, but I doubt it. So you're hoping for Collins and Heller, then you need Gardner to come along too. Possibly Portman, Capito or Murkowski, who had expressed some concern over the first bill... But my guess is those three get in line.
The only other long shot I see is Rubio, based on presidential ambitions. Voting for this could disqualify you from the presidency in 2024 once people see what a disaster it is.
That said, they may re-work the bill in the Senate and make it passable. However, I have a lot of questions as to whether this can fall under reconciliation and avoid the filibuster. I'm not so sure.