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The GOP war on voting The GOP war on voting

06-25-2018 , 10:17 AM
06-25-2018 , 10:57 AM
2 minor thoughts from the Texas decision:
- I think Alito might be the worst writer on the Court. Putting aside what the clinically-correct ruling would be (I don't know), his decision is so dense and unengaging that I couldn't get through it. Sotomayor's dissent is much stronger. (Actually, Kennedy is probably the worst writer on the Court.)

- The fact that Alito wrote this opinion makes it slightly less likely that SCOTUS rules against the union in Janus v. AFSCME. (It's been thought that if the union lost, Alito would be the likely author of the decision.)
07-20-2018 , 04:36 AM
New Hampshire GOP passes law to restrict college students from voting

Quote:
But beginning in the 2019 municipal elections – and later, in the 2020 elections – people who vote in New Hampshire must be residents of the state and if, for instance, they do not have a New Hampshire driver’s license, they will be required to obtain one within 60 days of voting. They must also register their vehicles in the Granite State.
Hassan 48, Ayotte 47.8
Hillary 47.6, Trump 47.3
GOP: Time to shrink the electorate!
07-20-2018 , 07:08 AM
Man, that one doesn't even have a pretextual "prevent fraud" justification.
07-30-2018 , 01:24 PM
no worries

08-01-2018 , 03:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Namath12
no worries

Let's be realistic here. It took them two hours to hack into these voting machines. Russian hackers had months to attempt to gain whatever amount of physical access was necessary and to hack in. I believe I remember reading something about some of the machines not being airgapped. There's a quote in that article that all it would take was five seconds with a USB drive to have future remote access. What are the odds a Russian could secure five minutes with one of them in the leadup to the election? Could it be done during the election? Like, could someone walk in to vote, plug a USB drive in and compromise the machine on the spot?

There's been reporting that Russia tried to hack voting machines. It sure sounds like they would have had an easy time doing it...

What are the odds that zero results were changed in the 2016 election? 1%? 5%? 25%?

Like, there's no evidence of it so the media can't/won't cover it, and we may never know for sure... but if we just think about the probability that votes were changed somewhere, it has to be pretty high, right? What about the probability that they hacked enough votes to change the outcome and literally install Trump as President? I think it's reasonable to consider that an act of war, if it happened, for whatever that's worth.
08-02-2018 , 09:20 AM
Quote:
Like, there's no evidence of it so
Yes, once the various conservatives in charge destroyed all the records there was indeed no evidence to examine. (See, I think, Georgia)

Mind you, that could have been done to cover up any number of fraudulent election crimes committed.
08-02-2018 , 10:53 AM
My brother who is far right sent me this article today.

Thoughts?

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2...-than-estimat/
08-02-2018 , 11:01 AM
My thoughts are it is an order of magnitude more difficult to refute bull**** than it is to create it.

(But it's definitely pure bull**** - 5.7M risking deportation to vote - riiiiiiight.)

https://www.politifact.com/florida/s...ns-claim-57-m/

Quote:
That’s 39 respondents out of 32,800 people who are now being used to extrapolate millions of illegal voters. Schaffner has warned that with a subset that small, the responses might be unreliable.

"Survey respondents occasionally select the wrong response by accident—perhaps because they are rushing through and not reading the questions carefully, because they do not fully understand the terminology being used, or because they simply click on the wrong box on the page," Schaffner wrote in a Politico magazine article after the November election.

Subsequent CCES surveys provide more evidence that some respondents answered the question wrong. There were 20 respondents who identified themselves as citizens in 2010 but then in 2012 changed their answers to indicate that they were noncitizens, which Schaffer said is "highly unrealistic."
Quote:
Agresti of Just Facts, the source of the numbers cited on Fox and Friends, used the same data from CCES and Old Dominion and concluded that between 594,000 to 5.7 million noncitizens voted illegally in the 2008 election. Agresti said his number on the high end of his range was higher than Old Dominion because he used different methodology in his calculations.
LOOOL

Quote:
There have been some instances of noncitizens voting, but actual evidence has shown small numbers among millions of votes cast nationwide. Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who co-chairs Trump’s voter fraud commission, has obtained a total of one conviction for noncitizen voting since 2015.

North Carolina’s 2016 post-election audit showed a few dozen noncitizen voters out of 4.8 million votes cast. Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted announced in February that since he took office in 2011, he has identified 126 noncitizens who cast ballots.
08-02-2018 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by markbris1

Thoughts?
Don't read "articles" sent to you by nazi's even if they are your family.
08-02-2018 , 11:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by markbris1
Thoughts?
It's bull****.

The source (Moonie Times) should have been the first clue.

This should have been the second:

Quote:
The research organization Just Facts, a widely cited, independent think tank led by self-described conservatives and libertarians, revealed its number-crunching in a report on national immigration.

"independent conservatives and libertarians"

Actual scholarly research has been done on this topic which is the reason Kris Kobach keeps losing lawsuits (and even Kobach didn't spew numbers that ****ing ridiculous).

Sharad Goel and others have been using antiquated techniques like "mathematics" to **** all over these garbage studies for years now. Here's one of many articles if you care to read more: We looked at 130 million ballots from the 2012 election and found practically zero evidence of fraud.

Common sense should be enough, though; How is it remotely possible to get MILLIONS of people who won't even answer the door for a census taker for fear of deportation to come out in droves on election day and commit felonies?
08-02-2018 , 11:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
New Hampshire GOP passes law to restrict college students from voting



Hassan 48, Ayotte 47.8
Hillary 47.6, Trump 47.3
GOP: Time to shrink the electorate!

Honest question from someone who is very liberal and is deeply against voter suppression tactics: What is the issue opponents of this law have with it?

When I was in college, I wasn't a resident of the state in which I attended school. Thus, I voted absentee in the state of which I was a resident. Seems reasonable to me.

I am fully willing to admit that I could be missing something significant here. It just seems, on its surface, to make sense. Vote in one's state of residency.
08-02-2018 , 11:17 AM
Thanks, I glanced through it and it seemed like bull**** but hadn’t really dug into it deep.
08-02-2018 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dlk9s
Honest question from someone who is very liberal and is deeply against voter suppression tactics: What is the issue opponents of this law have with it?

When I was in college, I wasn't a resident of the state in which I attended school. Thus, I voted absentee in the state of which I was a resident. Seems reasonable to me.

I am fully willing to admit that I could be missing something significant here. It just seems, on its surface, to make sense. Vote in one's state of residency.
When I was in college, I spent ~75% of my time in the state of the college rather than the state I was born in, and so arguably, I was more interested in the state and local laws to which I was subject more often than in the laws I was subject to less often. It seems most reasonable to do what we do for most people who have residences in multiple states: let them pick which one the register to vote in, and let them vote absentee if they won't be in that state at election time.
08-02-2018 , 11:26 AM
It's not the most egregious of the suppression laws, but the requirements to have both a state ID AND register one's vehicle in the state seem like they could be problematic taken together. I assume the second bit is not required if you do not actually own a vehicle, but the article doesn't explicitly say that.

Per the article, NH is the only state that didn't already have the residency requirement.
08-02-2018 , 11:33 AM
This American Life did an episode partially on Goel's work called "Things I Mean To Know" that was really good if you're into podcasting (TAL has its own app now, highly recommended in general). It dealt mainly with Kobach's assertion of widespread double-voting. Here's the link to the transcript:

https://www.thisamericanlife.org/630/transcript

Quote:
David Kestenbaum
They could have published their work and this number, 20,000 possibly fraudulent double votes. But there was one other thing to consider. They started wondering if there might be errors in the data. Like, maybe the data file says someone voted, but that's wrong. The person didn't vote, in which case, what looked like a double vote might actually just be a single vote. Maybe that would account for some of the 20,000 double votes.

But to check this, after doing all that fancy math, they had to go out into the messy world. The researchers sent out a team of undergrads to go through some poll books in Philadelphia. I talked to one of the students who did this. He said the books were in this forgotten building in a run-down part of town-- three-ring binders with the names of registered voters. On election day at your polling place, you find your name and sign next to it in the book.

It was super boring work, he said. They double-checked 11,000 names-- people the data file listed as having voted. And they found, in about 1% of the cases, according to the poll book, the data file seemed to be wrong. There was no signature. It didn't look like the person had actually voted.

David Kestenbaum
So before this, you had 20,000 what looked like double votes that were unexplained. How many of those 20,000 does this explain?

Sharad Goel
All of them.


David Kestenbaum
Wow.
08-02-2018 , 11:40 AM
And this, yesterday, from the Party of Election Integrity

08-02-2018 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
When I was in college, I spent ~75% of my time in the state of the college rather than the state I was born in, and so arguably, I was more interested in the state and local laws to which I was subject more often than in the laws I was subject to less often. It seems most reasonable to do what we do for most people who have residences in multiple states: let them pick which one the register to vote in, and let them vote absentee if they won't be in that state at election time.

Yeah, that makes sense. I was thinking something similar.

When I was in college, I was more concerned with what was going on in my home state, so I never really wanted to vote in my school's state.
08-02-2018 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dlk9s
Yeah, that makes sense. I was thinking something similar.

When I was in college, I was more concerned with what was going on in my home state, so I never really wanted to vote in my school's state.
I stayed registered in my home state as well, but saying that you want to register in the state where you live most of your days seems like unassailable logic to me.
08-02-2018 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by markbris1
My brother who is far right sent me this article today.

Thoughts?

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2...-than-estimat/
I did laugh at the assertion that polls show non citizens vote Democratic. It might be meaning situations where non citizens can vote in certain elections but the implication is that pollsters have already polled those non citizens just discovered to have voted and they vote Democrat
08-02-2018 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by markbris1
My brother who is far right sent me this article today.

Thoughts?

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2...-than-estimat/
Fivethirtyeight has a good piece on the flaw in the research on which these claims have been based, which has been acknowledged by the authors of the original study. I would bet that this same criticism applies to this new attempt using the same data.
08-02-2018 , 03:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
I stayed registered in my home state as well, but saying that you want to register in the state where you live most of your days seems like unassailable logic to me.
Giving you the choice doesn't seem fair to me. Should be a national rule for one or the other.
08-02-2018 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
Giving you the choice doesn't seem fair to me. Should be a national rule for one or the other.
That would require a constitutional amendment. States have almost complete autonomy when it comes to election rules and regulations.
08-02-2018 , 04:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkubus
That would require a constitutional amendment. States have almost complete autonomy when it comes to election rules and regulations.
So is there anything preventing someone from voting in multiple states? Or would that even violate any laws at all?
08-02-2018 , 05:22 PM
The malfeasance is limited only by your imagination!

Spoiler:
Yes, there are laws that prevent people from voting in multiple states for the same election.
Spoiler:
This has been studied. It almost never happens.

      
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