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Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel. Georgia's 6th - Ossof v. Handel.

06-23-2017 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
The problem with that is the same reason you shouldn't lie to pollsters, partly. The unrelated problem is that it assumes everyone lying is doing so for the same purpose, which would require a staggering amount of coordination that none but the most ardent conspiracy theorists could accept.

The main problem is that such an action would not send the intended message to the intended recipient. This is part of the reason polling exists, because in an election you only have two options for a candidate: vote for them or don't. There's no way to convey which of their policies you agree or disagree with at the ballot box, you simply have to pick one person and back them. Polling can let voters express concerns or support that otherwise just voting doesn't let them. This is all contingent upon people being honest to pollsters, of course, much like it's harder to get an accurate diagnosis from a doctor you lie to.
People lying for different reasons and in different ways will still screw with the accuracy, no conspiracy is needed.

Part of Hillary's failure was she didn't know which states to focus on. Trump's internal polls seem to have been better than hers or the media's. I don't know why that is, maybe Trump voters could tell if they were being polled by a liberal college kid who they felt they should lie to, but it had an impact.
06-23-2017 , 12:04 PM
Hillary knew exactly which states she needed to be in. She was just arrogant enough to think she could win by ignoring internal polling.

Plenty of people from the campaign have come out saying they knew they were weak in some of those states she lost, but the decision was to do nothing because if they went to those states, trump might know she knew she was vulnerable.
06-23-2017 , 12:09 PM
Pollsters are using old likely voter models that don't take into account widespread voter suppression. GOP investment in Voter ID is paying huge dividends.
06-23-2017 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
Which reasons for disliking her have been proven true iyo?
Nice goal post shift.

This is the claim:
"People still dislike Hilary even though it has been shown almost all the reasons for their dislike have pretty much been created by fake news stories implanted by Russian hackers and alt right news sources."

It is false.

She has been involved in scandals going back twenty-five years -- including with her work with her law firm and documents that went missing, her proficiency with cattle futures trading, travel-gate, etc., etc. Many covered by MSM -- but feel free to try to "show" that almost all of these (i) are "fake news" stories and (ii) were "implanted" by Russian hackers and alt-right media sources (lol).

There are also people who dislike her because of her views as well as her propensity to lie.

It's kind of funny (sad?) actually, though, that in a forum that has literally tens of thousands of posts speaking to Trump and his administration being full of lies and liars, many of these same posters actually turn around and with a straight face are able to do one or more of the following: (i) defend this c***, (ii) fail to understand why some people might dislike her and (iii) make ridiculous claims like that above, even though about 5 seconds thought would make a normal person realize that the claim is absurd.

It's okay to say you like Hillary; also okay to say that you don't but Trump worse; okay to acknowledge that you don't like her (or think she's not really likeable generally), but her policy positions are much better than other politicians; even okay to say you think she's bad but the better of poor option. But nope, not strong enough for some posters -- it has to be the case that NOBODY should dislike her, obv victim of russian hackers/right wing media conspiracy -- anybody that dislikes her is just misinformed -- etc. That's when you get dopey posts like the one above.
06-23-2017 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KellyRae
She has been involved in scandals going back twenty-five years -- including with her work with her law firm and documents that went missing, her proficiency with cattle futures trading, travel-gate, etc., etc. Many covered by MSM -- but feel free to try to "show" that almost all of these (i) are "fake news" stories and (ii) were "implanted" by Russian hackers and alt-right media sources (lol).
Weird that all we really heard about during the election was BENGHAZI!!!!, buttery males, and the bombshell that Bill Clinton is a cheating SOB, I guess everyone just already had perfect memories of scandals from 20 years ago.
06-23-2017 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
She has been involved in scandals going back twenty-five years -- including with her work with her law firm and documents that went missing, her proficiency with cattle futures trading, travel-gate, etc., etc. Many covered by MSM -- but feel free to try to "show" that almost all of these (i) are "fake news" stories
That's not how proof works. You don't get to make claims and demand others prove you wrong.
06-23-2017 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
That's not how proof works. You don't get to make claims and demand others prove you wrong.
Except I didn't make the claim. Try again.
06-23-2017 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by otatop
Weird that all we really heard about during the election was BENGHAZI!!!!, buttery males, and the bombshell that Bill Clinton is a cheating SOB, I guess everyone just already had perfect memories of scandals from 20 years ago.
Nah, just examples. Lots of reasons people might not like her.
06-23-2017 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
Hillary knew exactly which states she needed to be in. She was just arrogant enough to think she could win by ignoring internal polling.

Plenty of people from the campaign have come out saying they knew they were weak in some of those states she lost, but the decision was to do nothing because if they went to those states, trump might know she knew she was vulnerable.
jesus christ, that's so incompetent and downright unforgiveable. like, he was already campaigning in those areas a ****ton so what's the difference? elected dems are just complete ****ing spineless idiotic losers, they all need to be primaried
06-23-2017 , 01:46 PM
takes a lot of nerve for right wingers to bring up the same one unconfirmed allegation of insider trading in cattle futures (for what like $100k?) while completely ignoring the dozens of confirmed instances where donald trump has cheated or scammed people out of millions in his business endeavors. and then you also want to talk about honesty/lying? gtfo here!! the cognitive dissonance among republicans is just unbelievable, y'all are ****ing stupid garbage human beings for real
06-23-2017 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KellyRae
Except I didn't make the claim. Try again.
PEOPLE ARE SAYING
06-23-2017 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poconoder
good reasons to lie to pollsters:
  • To make poll results less reliable over time so that people show up and vote more, knowing they can't just trust that reported "4% lead" to be accurate.
  • To make the parties spend more money in the race because they can't be sure if the race is really as safe as the polls suggest.
  • To force the media to spend more money doing more polling if they want to get an accurate idea of where the race is.
  • and other variations on these
Is there any data showing this happening on a large scale, or are you just saying it's theoretically possible? Because the first is reality based and the other is what you want to be true to fit a certain worldview.

This is similar logic:

1. We know a small handful of few people voted illegally.
2. Trump lost the majority of American votes by 3 million.
3 Therefore, 3 to 5 million people voted illegally, AND ALL AGAINST TRUMP LOL.

What Trump is missing is well, ANY evidence for 3. What you're missing is even if we had cold, hard data for 2 million illegal anti-Trump voters, he STILL would claim 3 to 5 million. Why? Because 2 million wouldn't be enough to make him right.

And so he lies.
06-23-2017 , 02:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawnmower Man
PEOPLE ARE SAYING
Mostly just in this derposphere.
06-23-2017 , 02:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KellyRae
Except I didn't make the claim. Try again.
You didn't? Then who said:

Quote:
Originally Posted by KellyRae
her work with her law firm and documents that went missing, her proficiency with cattle futures trading, travel-gate
Because I could swear you're the same person as you.
06-23-2017 , 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
You didn't? Then who said:

Because I could swear you're the same person as you.
Context helps. This was the claim made that started this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigt2k4
People still dislike Hilary even though it has been shown almost all the reasons for their dislike have pretty much been created by fake news stories implanted by Russian hackers and alt right news sources.
It was contained in the first post you responded to on the matter, as well as the post you are questioning (copied below). In it I repeated the claim that was being made. The claim was essentially that it has been "shown" that it isn't possible to dislike Hillary absent reliance on "fake news" "implanted" by Russian hacking/alt-right media. Don't think this is true, let alone "shown" to be true -- but keep trying to shift the goalposts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KellyRae
Nice goal post shift.

This is the claim:
"People still dislike Hilary even though it has been shown almost all the reasons for their dislike have pretty much been created by fake news stories implanted by Russian hackers and alt right news sources."

It is false.

She has been involved in scandals going back twenty-five years -- including with her work with her law firm and documents that went missing, her proficiency with cattle futures trading, travel-gate, etc., etc. Many covered by MSM -- but feel free to try to "show" that almost all of these (i) are "fake news" stories and (ii) were "implanted" by Russian hackers and alt-right media sources (lol).

There are also people who dislike her because of her views as well as her propensity to lie.

It's kind of funny (sad?) actually, though, that in a forum that has literally tens of thousands of posts speaking to Trump and his administration being full of lies and liars, many of these same posters actually turn around and with a straight face are able to do one or more of the following: (i) defend this c***, (ii) fail to understand why some people might dislike her and (iii) make ridiculous claims like that above, even though about 5 seconds thought would make a normal person realize that the claim is absurd.

It's okay to say you like Hillary; also okay to say that you don't but Trump worse; okay to acknowledge that you don't like her (or think she's not really likeable generally), but her policy positions are much better than other politicians; even okay to say you think she's bad but the better of poor option. But nope, not strong enough for some posters -- it has to be the case that NOBODY should dislike her, obv victim of russian hackers/right wing media conspiracy -- anybody that dislikes her is just misinformed -- etc. That's when you get dopey posts like the one above.
06-23-2017 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KellyRae
The claim was essentially that it has been "shown" that it isn't possible to dislike Hillary absent reliance on "fake news" "implanted" by Russian hacking/alt-right media.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigt2k4
People still dislike Hilary even though it has been shown almost all the reasons for their dislike have pretty much been created by fake news stories implanted by Russian hackers and alt right news sources.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KellyRae
Nice goal post shift.
.
06-23-2017 , 03:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib
.
Yep, got me there -- "almost all" makes the post true.

If you seriously believe the claim, though, guess there really isn't much to say.
06-23-2017 , 03:32 PM
well I don't even know wtf you're talking about wrt documents missing from her lawyer years, or travel-gate, but like I said, it's kind of up to you to present those arguments as factual, rather than just assume everyone knows everything about them and accepts them as bible truth (which is a rather appropriate phrase in this case)
06-23-2017 , 03:36 PM
Maybe adios realized he didn't need a citation, but here's one anyway:

https://www.nationofchange.org/2017/...-georgias-6th/
06-23-2017 , 06:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
This is a revealing take on a few levels. I will ignore the tactic of "shaming" and its effectiveness. Your premise in reality is that the polls were accurate in putting Ossof ahead and are concluding that attack ads carried her from a big deficit and a probable loss to a comfortable win. Not sure I'd make the conclusion that the polls were ever that accurate given that this is a Congressional election in a Republican district. You can prattle all you want about TRUMP carrying this district by a narrow margin but this race is for a different office, different branch of government, and arguably about a different kind of representation. Price was carrying this district by double digit margins. Why couldn't the argument be that the attack ads had little effect and that Ossof did much better than a Democrat would have otherwise expected?
I didn't call the tactic shaming, though that would be applicable. I said the Republicans have no shame in resorting to blatant lies in absurd attack ads. Nor in ignoring the tactic afterward, I guess...

You can argue that, but Ossoff got 48.1% in the primary, so it was pretty clear it was going to be a close race. That means there's plenty of reason to think it would be in line with Trump v. Clinton than Price's election. There were also numerous polls from different companies that had Ossoff in the lead, all with similar margins if I recall (~3%), so logic would dictate he was likely in the lead. The only outlier that I know of had him up 7. It'd be different if they were all over the map, but they pretty consistently showed Ossoff with the lead.
06-23-2017 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
I didn't call the tactic shaming, though that would be applicable. I said the Republicans have no shame in resorting to blatant lies in absurd attack ads. Nor in ignoring the tactic afterward, I guess...

You can argue that, but Ossoff got 48.1% in the primary, so it was pretty clear it was going to be a close race. That means there's plenty of reason to think it would be in line with Trump v. Clinton than Price's election. There were also numerous polls from different companies that had Ossoff in the lead, all with similar margins if I recall (~3%), so logic would dictate he was likely in the lead. The only outlier that I know of had him up 7. It'd be different if they were all over the map, but they pretty consistently showed Ossoff with the lead.
I will put it more simply, there is an excellent chance the polls were wrong I.E. the polling was faulty.
06-23-2017 , 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poconoder
good reasons to lie to pollsters:
  • To make poll results less reliable over time so that people show up and vote more, knowing they can't just trust that reported "4% lead" to be accurate.
  • To make the parties spend more money in the race because they can't be sure if the race is really as safe as the polls suggest.
  • To force the media to spend more money doing more polling if they want to get an accurate idea of where the race is.
  • and other variations on these
1. thousands of poconoders tell pollsters they want a ridiculous fake political agenda as a joke and to discredit polls

2. real politicians see those polls and run real political campaigns on aforementioned terrible political agenda

3. thousands of poconoders go out and vote for aforementioned politicians
06-23-2017 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by poconoder
good reasons to lie to pollsters:
  • To make poll results less reliable over time so that people show up and vote more, knowing they can't just trust that reported "4% lead" to be accurate.
  • To make the parties spend more money in the race because they can't be sure if the race is really as safe as the polls suggest.
  • To force the media to spend more money doing more polling if they want to get an accurate idea of where the race is.
  • and other variations on these
There might be a handful of people who lie to pollsters for this reason. But I doubt there are enough to affect the poll numbers.
06-23-2017 , 09:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian
1. thousands of poconoders tell pollsters they want a ridiculous fake political agenda as a joke and to discredit polls

2. real politicians see those polls and run real political campaigns on aforementioned terrible political agenda

3. thousands of poconoders go out and vote for aforementioned politicians
Oh snap, it works the other way too? Man that's really gonna mess with poco's already failed attempt at reasoning.
06-23-2017 , 09:20 PM
A lot of so called polling is about the choices pollsters make. If they decide the party mix should be 36% Dem 26% Rep instead of 34% Dem 28% Rep it completely changes the result, and that is totally unrelated to what poll respondants are actually saying.

      
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