ELECTION DAY 2017 PREDICTIONS/RESULTS - Page 2 - Politics and Economics

Polls in NJ don't close for another hour. I read on NJ.com that polls were predicting record low turnout. JFC NJ. Eight years of Christie and Donald ****ing Trump is President and that's not enough motivation for indolent New Jerseyans to turn out.

11-07-2017 , 08:06 PM

#27

goofyballer

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Harry Enten of 538 says CNN's exit poll shows Northam +5

11-07-2017 , 08:07 PM

#28

wheatrich

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in other words Gillepsie or whatever wins by 5 easily.

11-07-2017 , 08:10 PM

#29

AllTheCheese

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EDIT: May be talking out my ass. I defer to more knowledgeable posters.

Last edited by AllTheCheese; 11-07-2017 at 08:19 PM.

11-07-2017 , 08:11 PM

#30

adios

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ReasonableGuy

Here in WA, $9 million has been spent on a state senate race. Why? Because if it flips from R to D, the Ds will have a majority in both state houses along with the governorship.

Poised for West Coast Dominance, Democrats Eye Grand Agenda

Dem should be a slam dunk in Sammamish right?

Edit: looks like this is a vote for a state senate district in King County. Definitely a Dem party slam dunk.

Last edited by adios; 11-07-2017 at 08:19 PM.

11-07-2017 , 08:12 PM

#31

fatkid

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Quote:

Originally Posted by wheatrich

in other words Gillepsie or whatever wins by 5 easily.

Heh

11-07-2017 , 08:16 PM

#32

AllTheCheese

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PS: I don't see the exit polls he's talking about though. Following the link in goofy's link just brings me to a page with one paragraph about the race on it. Does anybody have a good link?

11-07-2017 , 08:17 PM

#33

lycosid

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

Exit polls are not like pre-election polls. Historically, they're very accurate. Gillespie +5 is basically inconceivable at this point.

Wat? There are still Bernie bros mad about exit polls in the New York primary last year.

11-07-2017 , 08:19 PM

#34

AllTheCheese

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Quote:

Originally Posted by lycosid

Wat? There are still Bernie bros mad about exit polls in the New York primary last year.

Fixed.

11-07-2017 , 08:21 PM

#35

StimAbuser

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nytimes link has a ton of stuff besides a graph, dunno whats wrong with your puter. Has city/county live updates and breakdowns, a prediction meter etc.

Edit: spoke too soon, Northams votes all just disappeared from the page lol.

11-07-2017 , 08:22 PM

#36

Loki

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10k votes in for VA and not a single one has gone to the Democrat?

Not fishy at all.

edit

20k

11-07-2017 , 08:22 PM

#37

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

PS: I don't see the exit polls he's talking about though. Following the link in goofy's link just brings me to a page with one paragraph about the race on it. Does anybody have a good link?

I had the same problem, I think if you click "elections 2017" from that CNN page then go to Virginia and hit "full details" then "exit polls", that's it (and they don't show full #s for some reason, only crosstabs, though from that you can derive the overall #s).

11-07-2017 , 08:23 PM

#38

goofyballer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib

10k votes in for VA and not a single one has gone to the Democrat?

Not fishy at all.

lol wtf, a minute ago it was like 68/34 or something (lots of rural counties reporting obv) and now...

11-07-2017 , 08:23 PM

#39

ANONN123

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Noodle Wazlib

10k votes in for VA and not a single one has gone to the Democrat?

Not fishy at all.

edit

20k

It was working a couple minutes ago. Some sort of technical issue I assume

Or the Russians have gotten really really good at this

11-07-2017 , 08:25 PM

#40

goofyballer

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AND WE'RE BACK

11-07-2017 , 08:29 PM

#41

Riverman

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Ohio Issue 2 would mandate the state pay no more than the VA for drugs. Big Pharma pumped $50 million into ads that were complete lies. Gogogo

11-07-2017 , 08:30 PM

#42

ANONN123

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Early VA results are favoring Northam if the NYT analysis is to be believed

11-07-2017 , 08:31 PM

#43

StimAbuser

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bware

Early VA results are favoring Northam if the NYT analysis is to be believed

Just keeps growing baby, +4.2 now.

11-07-2017 , 08:33 PM

#44

Namath12

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H.Y.D.R.A. needs to pull an upset here imo

11-07-2017 , 08:34 PM

#45

Loki

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omg, i kept reading hydra for that name too, didn't realize the D was missing

11-07-2017 , 08:34 PM

#46

ANONN123

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Really interested to see how much of a bomb Arlington will be

11-07-2017 , 08:35 PM

#47

JonnyA

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bware

Early VA results are favoring Northam if the NYT analysis is to be believed

Based on NYT analysis, the results are heavily favoring Northam (indicating 10%+ victory). They projected the vote initially to be almost even, and now based on only 10% in they are Northam + 4%. My understanding of their model is that they don't update their estimates for votes outstanding based on votes already recorded (at least they didn't for HRC-Trump election).

Hopefully, they are using a solid baseline.