One of the more interesting derails to me in the Vigorous Debate thread was the talk about climate change. So inspired by the new and genteel Politics forum, I thought I'd start a thread and hope reasonable people can have an intellectually honest discussion without flinging too much poo.
I concede that since the Industrial Revolution got rolling, any intellectually honest person who's done any research on this topic would have to say that carbon emissions have risen, and average global temperatures have also risen. I don't contest any of that, and maybe accepting that as a given puts me far to the left of the present-day right wing derposphere.
My problem is when people on the left talk about climate change, they get carried away with agreeing with each other, and don't propose workable, empirical solutions. What they do propose could have untenable unintended consequences for industry or the economy as a whole. I see climate change as a trade-off; it's the cost of a modern, technological society.
Here are my main points, just waiting to be refuted:
1: Global temperatures aren't "supposed" to be anything.
Throughout the history of this planet, average temperatures have changed wildly, in both directions. I see global warming champions point to the rising temperatures, as if it's "supposed" to be one thing, but all those carbon emissions are making it Something Else, and that's Bad.
2.
I don't think higher average global temperatures necessarily cause more extreme or inclement weather.
Every time a bad hurricane or tornado or wildfire or earthquake or tsunami rolls through, global warming people say "Welp! It's getting worse and worse because of global warming!"
According to wikipedia, the deadliest natural disaster in the world (excluding pandemics and famine) was a flood in China in 1931. The deadliest natural disaster in America was a hurricane that hit Texas in the year 1900.
I don't think
Katrina and Maria are evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger ... wildfires are intensifying ...
???? ...
must be man-made global warming!
I think it's possible that rising temperatures could lead to rising sea levels as polar ice melts, but sea levels are another thing that isn't static over the course of the planet's history. Succinctly, I think the relationship between climate change and inclement weather is poorly understood.
3. I'm not prepared to stop driving and using electricity, are you? ...Hypocrite.
If you want to learn more about energy,
read this long but fantastic blog post about electric cars. Basically, about 40% of the world's total energy flow is dedicated to producing electricity, and 2/3rds of that comes from burning carbon-emitting fossil fuels, which is mostly coal. Transportation is almost a third of developed countries' energy flow, and runs nearly entirely on oil.
Now, there are emerging technologies and alternate energy sources (for electricity production AND transportation) that show promise. I support the innovation that the private sector can bring to market. If Elon Musk really builds a more efficient and cheaper alternative, I'd probably buy one. I'm rooting for him to shift the paradigm and change the world.
But in the meantime, I think it's asinine to punish the industry and economies of the developed world (who are also fueling the research and innovation) for carbon emissions. This is a trade-off I'm willing to make to live in 2019. And if climate change really does shift the landscape, then the changing economic conditions will reflect that.
So change my mind.