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Old 03-17-2019, 11:53 AM   #15301
diebitter
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn indicates he could vote Leave in a new referendum on Britain’s EU membership

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8826776.html
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Old 03-17-2019, 12:04 PM   #15302
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Brexit: No new vote on May's deal without DUP support - chancellor
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But Philip Hammond told the BBC's Andrew Marr that it would only be put to MPs if "enough of our colleagues and the DUP are prepared to support it".

He did not rule out a financial settlement for Northern Ireland if the DUP backed the deal.
Another bung on the way
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Old 03-17-2019, 12:06 PM   #15303
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Re: Brexit Referendum

As a dumb American who is barely following Brexit it seems like they are a guy who proposed because he felt like it was the next logical relationship stage, but is just going through motions and really doesn’t want to get married so he is being very passive aggressive and pushing the wedding further and further out.

What’s the probability of politicians just saying, “Yeah, we ****ed up that referendum. We’ll stay, sorry.” Is it possible or are they legally forced to follow the referendum?
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Old 03-17-2019, 01:16 PM   #15304
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by aarono2690 View Post
As a dumb American who is barely following Brexit it seems like they are a guy who proposed because he felt like it was the next logical relationship stage, but is just going through motions and really doesn’t want to get married so he is being very passive aggressive and pushing the wedding further and further out.

What’s the probability of politicians just saying, “Yeah, we ****ed up that referendum. We’ll stay, sorry.” Is it possible or are they legally forced to follow the referendum?
The referendum was 'advisory', i.e not legally binding.

The chances of them saying we "****ed up and are staying" period is close to zero. It would rightly be seen as an attack on democracy. Brexit could get reversed after and probably only after another referendum. For various reasons it is not clear how likely that is, for example what would the second referendum question be? May's deal v. remain? Leavers who consider May's deal tepid at best would consider this a stitch up. So: May's deal v. Hard Brexit? May's deal v. remain v. Hard Brexit in a ranked choice ballot? And how could May even advocate her deal v. remain when she voted remain in the referendum? And so on.

Politicians don't admit they ****ed up so quickly. How many high profile Brexiters have said "actually I made a mistake"? How many high profile Leavers have said "actually May's deal surpasses remaining"? In both cases the answer is very close to zero. (there are someexceptions).

Politicians might admit they ****ed up in a few years time but there's not going to be some big mea culpa in the next twelve days.

Last edited by PartyGirlUK; 03-17-2019 at 01:19 PM. Reason: Your analogy is pretty pretty good. There's an overwhelming consensus of parliament that wishes this would all just go away.
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Old 03-17-2019, 01:26 PM   #15305
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
The referendum was 'advisory', i.e not legally binding.

The chances of them saying we "****ed up and are staying" period is close to zero. It would rightly be seen as an attack on democracy. Brexit could get reversed after and probably only after another referendum. For various reasons it is not clear how likely that is, for example what would the second referendum question be? May's deal v. remain? Leavers who consider May's deal tepid at best would consider this a stitch up. So: May's deal v. Hard Brexit? May's deal v. remain v. Hard Brexit in a ranked choice ballot? And how could May even advocate her deal v. remain when she voted remain in the referendum? And so on.

Politicians don't admit they ****ed up so quickly. How many high profile Brexiters have said "actually I made a mistake"? How many high profile Leavers have said "actually May's deal surpasses remaining"? In both cases the answer is very close to zero. (there are someexceptions).

Politicians might admit they ****ed up in a few years time but there's not going to be some big mea culpa in the next twelve days.


And by that time another vote swinging number of bitter old white dudes will have died.
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Old 03-17-2019, 01:33 PM   #15306
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Re: Brexit Referendum

if the second referendum isn't clarification of how to pursue the result of the first ref (ie which way shall we leave), then it shouldn't be held until the first referendum is delivered. That seems fair.
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Old 03-17-2019, 01:41 PM   #15307
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Why does May keep trying to get her deal through? Seems undemocratic to those MPs who voted it down twice. Gotta respect the will of the voters and all that.
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Old 03-17-2019, 01:47 PM   #15308
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Re: Brexit Referendum

It's the MPs seeking to remain by hook or by crook that are not respecting the will of the voters
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Old 03-17-2019, 01:54 PM   #15309
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
if the second referendum isn't clarification of how to pursue the result of the first ref (ie which way shall we leave), then it shouldn't be held until the first referendum is delivered. That seems fair.
“fair” here meaning something you just made up because it suits you.

which is fine because that’s really all any argument ever is. people don’t have principles or anything like it. just outcomes to like and outcomes not to like
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Old 03-17-2019, 01:57 PM   #15310
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Do you consider a referendum result not being delivered as 'unfair'?

I do.
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Old 03-17-2019, 02:08 PM   #15311
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Re: Brexit Referendum

The question on the referendum was "Should the UK remain in the EU or leave the EU?"

The public voted to indicate their belief that we should leave. The government has respected the will of the people by invoking Article 50 and negotiating a deal to leave the EU, but the deal has failed (twice and counting) to get through parliament for a combination of reasons: some don't believe it sufficiently severs ties with the EU and others argue it surrenders too much . The vast majority of MPs agree that one way or another it's a terrible deal for the UK.

So you have a mandate from the UK voters to leave the EU, but nothing even close to a consensus among MPs on how to do it. The logical answer is to either revoke or suspend A50, present the exact terms of the UK's exit from the EU to the electorate and either leave or stay based on the result. Of course the whole idea of presenting a complex social, political and economic contract to the general public and expecting a considered response is utterly stupid, but we have Cameron to thank for that.
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Old 03-17-2019, 02:24 PM   #15312
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
Do you consider a referendum result not being delivered as 'unfair'?

I do.
it’s not “unfair” for the voters to change their mind when they learn more about something. you’re not owed anything

but the entire thing is pointless. you only hold the position you do because it advances the outcome you want to see. and likewise on the other side. nobody actually has any principles about stuff like this
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Old 03-17-2019, 02:32 PM   #15313
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
Do you consider a referendum result not being delivered as 'unfair'?

I do.
'fairness' is not some absolute that fully determines what we decide to do.

There would be a degree of unfairness in not delivering on the referendum - fair minded people recognise that. Exactly how unfair, and whether that sufficient to overwhelm other considerations, is a matter for individual judgement.
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Old 03-17-2019, 02:52 PM   #15314
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Re: Brexit Referendum

My second referendum preference is something like (Stay; May; Hard) ranked choice with the proviso that in a runoff Stay has to beat whichever leave option it faces by more than Leave beat Remain in '16. So if Stay beat Hard Brexit by 51.5% v. 48.5% the U.K would leave without a deal.

I might even tilt it a little bit further in Leave's favour and say Stay would have to score 53.11% or more in a runoff, for a 10 point net swing versus 2016. Remainers should imo empathise with Leavers who oppose a second referendum and in particular seek to avoid a scenario where Remain won with 50.1% of the vote and Leave was suddenly memory holed. That's a bad look and imo Remainers should be willing to "spot" Leave a couple of points in the interests of maintaining democratic goodwill. Requiring a super majority to overturn the political default (currently Leave) has much precedent and is probably a good idea (see: 2016 referendum).
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Old 03-17-2019, 03:11 PM   #15315
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
if the second referendum isn't clarification of how to pursue the result of the first ref (ie which way shall we leave), then it shouldn't be held until the first referendum is delivered. That seems fair.
If the first was legally binding then it would be wrong to include Remain as an option on a second referendum.

But it was advisory, and having pursued the possibility of a good Brexit deal)to few people's satisfaction) it's logical for a second referendum to include the Remain option.
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Old 03-17-2019, 03:12 PM   #15316
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
Do you consider a referendum result not being delivered as 'unfair'?

I do.
Because you only care about getting what you want, not what is fair and true.
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Old 03-17-2019, 03:12 PM   #15317
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Re: Brexit Referendum

It's a weird form of democracy where getting the majority of the vote is not enough to win.
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Old 03-17-2019, 03:15 PM   #15318
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Re: Brexit Referendum

All forms of democracy are weird in some way.

It would be an even weirder form of democracy that didn't allow Parliament to be sovereign and allowed plebiscites to rule over it.
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Old 03-17-2019, 03:17 PM   #15319
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
The chances of them saying we "****ed up and are staying" period is close to zero. It would rightly be seen as an attack on democracy.
**** it who cares. i was worried about this for a long time, but **** it who cares. not like mogg&co will take to the streets as most of them are fat and/or over 75

maybe the dumbs will react by voting in simon cowell or something but i am prepared to take that chance
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Old 03-17-2019, 03:24 PM   #15320
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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**** it who cares. i was worried about this for a long time, but **** it who cares. not like mogg&co will take to the streets as most of them are fat and/or over 75

maybe the dumbs will react by voting in simon cowell or something but i am prepared to take that chance
The majority
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Old 03-17-2019, 03:34 PM   #15321
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Re: Brexit Referendum

The majority who voted more than 30 months ago.
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Old 03-17-2019, 05:35 PM   #15322
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by Louis Cyphre View Post
It's a weird form of democracy where getting the majority of the vote is not enough to win.
Not really. Lots of democracies build in counter-majoritorian clauses. Consensus provides more legitimacy than a bare majority, so it makes sense to shade more towards that as a requirement on some very important decisions (eg Constitutional amendments in the US).
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Old 03-17-2019, 06:21 PM   #15323
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by Louis Cyphre View Post
It's a weird form of democracy where getting the majority of the vote is not enough to win.
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Old 03-17-2019, 07:20 PM   #15324
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by Louis Cyphre View Post
It's a weird form of democracy where getting the majority of the vote is not enough to win.
Yep. Tell it to all the people trying to overturn democracy.
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Old 03-17-2019, 07:23 PM   #15325
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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The majority who voted more than 30 months ago.
LOL so kicking the can down the road and deliberate blocking of progress should be rewarded?

Are you in a job that's paid by the hour or something?
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