An article written by the countries one rational leave campaigner.

Hypnotised by cake and unicorns, the Brexit perfectionists have blown it

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-zealots

Yeah, mostly agree with this.

The only people that are worse are those who vote against the deal which everyone pretty much knows is the only deal available, then vote for stopping no deal. That's just ridiculous, and typical of scumbag remainer tactics.

We're not there yet because May just will not go away. Deal is coming back for a 3rd time in the next few days. There's rumours that the DUP is searching for a way to support a deal and I dont know how much we can rely on the hard line brexiters turkeys to keep on voting against canceling christmas.

An important issue might be how many will defect away from their previous support for May's deal - the remainers who voted for it because they were scared of no-deal.

It's perfectly reasonable for an MP to want a softer Brexit than May's in which case they should do exactly this, hoping to get an extension and/or Parliament to take control.

Disagreeing with you about Brexit doesn't make anyone a scumbag; quite the contrary.

There are reckoned to be about 20 hard line ERG type Brexiters, so even if they and the DUP support May's deal it's still a long way short of the 75 they need to flip, though still possible if they can rattle MPs enough.

Second point is solid.

It does make you a scumbag if you also say you respect the result of the first referendum, which is what the labour party is always banging on about to try and appeal to leavers.

We're relying on some very determined turkeys. There's a risk we get confused by the plumage displays.

But if May get's it down to manageable numbers then the targeting of individuals (very much including Labour MPs) becomes a very winnable proposition for May. (Even if it takes meaningful vote no 4+).

She's even lost control of her own cabinet, let alone her government and party, so the possibility of a PCP mutiny arises if Labour calls for a vote of no confidence once it becomes clear she's heading down the vote #3 and vote #4 road.

Time for some on topic music.

oh yes. Lots of other possibilities.

But for May ... (and I hope you appreciate it not being British and from this century)

I'm hearing some very interesting things (unable to cite source, but it's authoritative):

Starting with the fairly obvious:

GE 2019 more likely than not
3rd and 4th May vote likely/possible


Then less obviously...

If the Letwin/Cooper/Boles amendment passes, Letwin is effectively PM

In a Tory party leadership campaign, expectation is that two candidates to go into the head-to head would both be Brexiters.


Probability of Tory party de-selections is high.

Revocation of Article 50 is extremely unlikely.

Varadkar will face a vote of no confidence as soon as Brexit is over.

No. 10's time horizon is 48 hours at best (maybe this should be in the "obvious" section).

Fixed Term Parliament Act is a problem and will be for future PMs.

Article 50 extension will be granted as long as big countries get behind it (smaller countries will succumb to their influence).

Don't want to argue any of these, cos they either sound right/are right or I don't know enough to form an opinion or don't care, but can you expand on these:

- If the Letwin/Cooper/Boles amendment passes, Letwin is effectively PM
- Varadkar will face a vote of no confidence as soon as Brexit is over.

lol Francois.

Just checking best odds for next leader:

Boris and Gove are both front runners, both about 5/1

Raab somewhere between 7/1 - 9/1

Then Hunt/Javid a little longer odds

If you want a punt, both Cameron and Farage are 200/1

If you want to spew money, Grayling is 250/1


(Ruth Davidson is 66/1, and I personally think she may well walk it if she was in the race, but she said she wouldn't not long ago).

I wasn't present at the talk so heard this all second hand.

Letwin point is really just a technical observation on how powerless May has become that an amendment forced the government to vote for it.

Re. Varadkar - we haven't heard much about Irish politics recently because of Brexit, so who knows what's happening behind the scenes there?

Lol BBC reporting plan A is coming up for another vote next week.

can someone tldr why this isnt showing bias? Im trying to look into how amendments are selected but i know people in my life will be shouting from the roothtops this is "one remoaner having too much power and is showing his bias"?

this **** is all too complicated for me lol

Bercow is supposedly neutral but he hates may for bulldozing/bypassing parliament at every opportunity and wants to inflict as much humiliation on her as he can. If you watched his responses to the votes he was almost giddy about the amendments he was going to allow to go forward in the coming days. It's not quite partisan its personal.

so shouldnt he be sacked/step down if things get personal and not neutral?

Well he does it in a very passive aggressive way. It's obvious to anyone reading between the lines but he's doing nothing against the letter or really the spirit of his position.

Benn amendment sunk 314-312. Wow.

amazing

Jesus it's the house that doesn't want anything. They don't want the deal they don't want no deal now they don't even want the right to vote against all the things they don't want in the future.