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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

12-08-2018 , 03:27 PM
next step is uk parliament will vote next week on whether to accept this deal

they prolly vote no

dunno what happens then
12-08-2018 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
The lady was wrong about no deal shouldnt be a choice on any new ref. That's would be a total rig, and would kick off some right nasty ****.
No Deal is national suicide and cannot be on the ballot. And if you traitors want 'some right nasty ****,' you might just get it. In fact you certainly will, when people find out what your agenda really means.
12-08-2018 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hobbes9324
Could someone give a Yank a Cliff-notes version of where the process is now? From the post above, is May successfully playing a game of chicken with the EU - and if so, is the EU likely to swerve? If Germany and France want to cut a deal, can one of the smaller countries refuse to go along and kill it? (I'm under the impression that the deal has to be unanimous, which seems to give a whole lot of leverage to that last hold out country?)

Or am I just a confused 'merican.

MM MD
It's complicated.

Brexit vote: What could happen next?

EU approval needs 20 of the 27 countries representing at least 65% of the population, which is the sort of margin that the 2016 referendum should have required instead of a simple wafer-thin majority.

Last edited by jalfrezi; 12-08-2018 at 03:43 PM.
12-08-2018 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 57 On Red
If May's deal fails in the House it can't go to the country.
She could get some parts (ie the backstop) re-worded by the EU, claim it's not the same deal and put it to a referendum.
12-08-2018 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
It's complicated.

Brexit vote: What could happen next?

EU approval needs 20 of the 27 countries representing at least 65% of the population, which is the sort of margin that the 2016 referendum should have required instead of a simple wafer-thin majority.
Thanks, that was helpful.

MM MD
12-08-2018 , 07:42 PM
12-09-2018 , 06:15 AM
Never thought I would say this, but Boris Johnson is speaking a load of sense here https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/793358...brexit-vision/. I don't like him one little bit, but he would be a competent lead negotiator, especially compared to the travesty that is currently going on.

Quote:
it is time now to show our EU friends that we mean business.

This should be a take it or leave it offer – and so show that we mean business we must be able to walk away.

This is a great country, capable of rising to immense challenges – and I believe the people of this country are fed up to the back teeth of being told by their government that they are simply incapable of managing the logistical problems of Brexit, when for two and a half years this government has studiously and deliberately failed to address those logistical problems.

It is that failure and that lack of resolve that has so weakened our hand in the talks.

Now is the time to get on with it – and remember, if we have to go down this route, we will have the entire £39billion to spend on it.
No deal must be left on the table as an option or our hand is extremely weak. Nobody wants to see it but if we are treated badly then they have to know we will do it, otherwise we will just get bullied.
12-09-2018 , 06:50 AM
Boris laying down a major FU EU message on Marr right now.

And he's had a hair cut.
12-09-2018 , 07:43 AM
He's talking as much nonsense about the £39Bn we owe for commitments made as he did about the £350M/week for the NHS.

He can't ever be trusted.
12-09-2018 , 10:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
You're confusing me with someone else. It's probably an age thing

The only way I'd want the UK to become more like the USA is with Northern California's climate. The rest of the USA, morally, culturally and politically? **** me, no way.

One of the attractions of the EU for me was in taking the UK away from the malignant influence of the USA which over the past half a century or so has become a total basket case.
I'm sure most of us agree about the USA (yes to craft beer, no to most everything else)

And yet you want our state to hand over power to a difficult to control federal government ruling over an empire with the the wealth of a full continent. In order to be less like the USA?

Eventually, a Trump will be elected to be head of the federal EU, then what do we do?

I propose that the highest power we can elect a bad (/any) politician to is something much smaller.
12-09-2018 , 10:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexdb
I'm sure most of us agree about the USA (yes to craft beer, no to most everything else)

And yet you want our state to hand over power to a difficult to control federal government ruling over an empire with the the wealth of a full continent. In order to be less like the USA?
If by "more like the USA" chez really meant more integrated with the EU countries, then yes I'm a federalist because I see it as a good thing to be able to oppose/mediate Russia/USA, and see people worrying about loss of national identity are being very silly and xenophobic because they are forgetting that Wales/Scotland/Cornwall/Liverpool/Newcastle/London all have distinctive identities that havn't been subsumed into British homogeneity, while Oklahoma, New York and California are as distinct from each other as countries in Europe are.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexdb
Eventually, a Trump will be elected to be head of the federal EU, then what do we do?
Eventually everything will happen, including a Trump exploiting the UK's lack of a written constitution who can ride roughshod through long-observed and critically important Parliamentary and constitutional conventions. Why don't you care about that possibility?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexdb
I propose that the highest power we can elect a bad (/any) politician to is something much smaller.
OK, that's your point of view which I don't agree with but respect.
12-09-2018 , 11:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Eventually everything will happen, including a Trump exploiting the UK's lack of a written constitution who can ride roughshod through long-observed and critically important Parliamentary and constitutional conventions. Why don't you care about that possibility?
I do, but those stakes aren't as high. I don't want to re-raise that from national to continental. Then we can reform that bit.
12-09-2018 , 11:36 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/08/Remainers gear up for second referendum, with new NHS pledge

Quote:
Remain strategists keen to avoid mistakes of 2016’s ‘Project Fear’ plan a grassroots campaign with no designated leader

A pledge to spend the “dividend” secured by staying in the European Union on nationwide regeneration is being drawn up by senior Remain strategists ahead of a possible second referendum. In anticipation of a fresh poll, they are developing plans for a grassroots campaign that will operate without a traditional figurehead.

Eyecatching promises to spend billions on “left-behind” communities, the NHS and areas affected by high levels of migration are among the ideas being developed by campaigners keen on avoiding the mistakes of the much-criticised 2016 operation.

With Theresa May under pressure from her cabinet to delay a vote on her Brexit deal, figures on both sides of the debate are now planning how they could win a second public vote should a referendum emerge as the only way to break the political deadlock. Leave donors and pro-Brexit MPs are already said to have held talks about how to fight for a hard Brexit.

The Remain camp is desperate not to repeat the mistakes of the last campaign to keep Britain in the EU, which was labelled “Project Fear” for its alarmist predictions about the consequences of leaving the bloc. “There needs to be a positive vision and a message that things won’t just stay the same should the country back Remain,” said one senior strategist.

There are already plans to have no designated leader and instead rely on the grassroots movement for a second vote that has developed since 2016. This would avoid relying on figures from the first referendum who were regarded as representing the establishment and an unsatisfactory status quo. A slogan is also being developed that will make it clear that a Remain vote would not mean “no change”.

Attention has already turned to how the financial dividend from reversing the Brexit vote would be used. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, May’s deal would have a negative fiscal impact of some 1.8% of GDP in the long term, which campaigners say equates to about £36bn.

Remain figures from Labour, the Conservatives and the minor parties are already backing three ideas drawn up by people working with the pro-Europe Common Ground thinktank, including former Tory minister David Willetts. They are designed to address “the underlying problems that led many people to vote for Brexit in the first place”.

The first is a “jumpstart fund” for parts of the country starved of investment compared with London and other big cities. The money could be spent on public infrastructure, housing, local transport, skills or business development. Crucially, there is support for local communities to be given a say in how the money is spent.

Second, a further cash injection for the NHS, above the 3.4% annual increases pledged by May, is seen as key. Campaigners believe it would alleviate concerns about the health service and highlight the misleading Vote Leave claim that money sent to Brussels could be diverted to the NHS should Britain vote for Brexit.

Third, ideas are circulating about spending the net tax take from EU nationals in the UK on underlying issues that fuelled the Brexit vote. Research for the government’s Migration Advisory Committee put EU nationals’ contribution at £4.7bn. One suggestion is a “Migration and Communities Fund” for areas affected by significant migration of all kinds. However, there are already splits over the details, with some campaigners wanting the money to be used more generally to help poorer communities. Yesterday, Labour MP Anna Turley and other People’s Vote campaigners backed the idea of spending it on a globalisation fund for communities that have been “left out and left behind”.

Senior figures are wary of imitating the Leave campaign’s tactic of making promises that would not or could not be fulfilled. There is also some nervousness among Tory supporters of a second referendum about making wild spending pledges, though most agree that some guarantees about boosted local services will have to form part of the offer.

The People’s Vote and Best for Britain campaigns, which both back a second referendum, are running events and rallies this weekend to boost support. A newly developed app makes it easy for the public to lobby their MP for another vote. Strategists claim to have a network of some 30,000 activists across the country ready for a new campaign.

Leave campaigners are also gearing up for a new poll, though several believe a general election is more likely. Richard Tice, of Leave Means Leave, has already said he has begun planning a campaign. Meanwhile, former Tory election supremo Lynton Crosby has denied his company is formally involved in campaigns for a hard Brexit. There have been reports that an associate was working with Tory MPs on opposing May’s Brexit plans, including discussions about a new referendum campaign.
12-09-2018 , 11:55 AM
Ah so trying a positive message for a change?

The actual behaviour from before 2016 up until today belies that, doesn't it...

So, these promises about spending more on communities and NHS Etc.. Who exactly is promising that, cos only Gov/parliament majority can actually deliver that, so they'd need the government to get behind that otherwise it's all lies.
12-09-2018 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
So, these promises about spending more on communities and NHS Etc.. Who exactly is promising that, cos only Gov/parliament majority can actually deliver that, so they'd need the government to get behind that otherwise it's all lies.
very good
12-09-2018 , 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
Ah so trying a positive message for a change?

The actual behaviour from before 2016 up until today belies that, doesn't it...

So, these promises about spending more on communities and NHS Etc.. Who exactly is promising that, cos only Gov/parliament majority can actually deliver that, so they'd need the government to get behind that otherwise it's all lies.
You mean unlike the Leave campaign of 2016 promising £350M/week more for the NHS?

Who was going to deliver that because "only Gov/parliament majority can actually deliver that, so they'd need the government to get behind that otherwise it's all lies".

Funny how you apply criteria to one side of the debate and not to the other (ie yours). More hypocrisy from you.
12-09-2018 , 12:14 PM
Not really. I never believed the bus thing cos it was indeed lies, and never defended it because it was groundless nonsense.

I expect you to not support this tack if it's lies because it would be YOU that's the hypocrite, and I'm sure you wouldn't .... oh wait.

Last edited by diebitter; 12-09-2018 at 12:20 PM.
12-09-2018 , 12:17 PM
It is amazing how the positives are still not actually 'the EU is good because....'

It's more 'we'll do this to mitigate the effects of the EU if you vote to stay...'


loooool - they literally cannot see they are basically saying 'yeah EU is **** but we can help spread the **** out a bit so you're not in such deep ****'


No one is gonna believe it any more than they believed Project Fear, sorry about that Remain.


It might work better if you just go to 'Vote Remain and we'll give you 2 grand'
12-09-2018 , 12:30 PM
It says a lot that in the run up to the 2016 referendum, voters were force fed an absolute wall of remain propaganda from all angles yet the result was still 52% leave. I was solidly in the remain camp and still thought it was ridiculous and see through.

The book Unleashing Demons gives some insight, I mean the remain campaign director moans about the BBC News website redesign losing readership in it. Also when Obama came over he just asked the remain campaign "what do you want me to say" then did it. The book is laughably biased (especially in blaming Jeremy Corbyn for brexit).
12-09-2018 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
It is amazing how the positives are still not actually 'the EU is good because....'

It's more 'we'll do this to mitigate the effects of the EU if you vote to stay...'
There is still lack of why the EU is good (that's so tough without a leader after all these decades of abdication) but it's not about mitigating the effects the EU unless you mean things such as that the economic benefits of being in the EU weren't distributed fairly.

The anger/frustration caused by that unfairness, which is about far more than the EU, is the key underlying factor that led people to vote for brexit, and that's where the remain campaign need to focus a lot of their efforts. Then it has to actually be done because if it's not brexit, it will be other outlets they will vote for again and again.
12-09-2018 , 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
it's not about mitigating the effects the EU...
Quote:
Eyecatching promises to spend billions on ... areas affected by high levels of migration
Quote:
One suggestion is a “Migration and Communities Fund” for areas affected by significant migration of all kinds
o really?
12-09-2018 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
Not really. I never believed the bus thing cos it was indeed lies, and never defended it because it was groundless nonsense.

I expect you to not support this tack if it's lies because it would be YOU that's the hypocrite, and I'm sure you wouldn't .... oh wait.
I don't believe it's necessarily lies, but I do agree that it will be up to the government of the day to do something about it.

I think that's much more likely to happen now because it's become quite clear to every sentient adult in the UK (yes, even you) that some people voted to leave not because of "sovereignty" or even directly because of racism, but because of anger at how jobs have disappeared and communities have disintegrated, and frustration at both of the main parties for failing to tackle those things.

When voting for the opposition fails to make any appreciable difference to underlying problems in the infrastructure in some of the forgotten parts of the country, it's understandable that some people will lash out if given the chance to vote against the status quo, even if it does mean cutting their noses off to spite their faces.

It's clearly NOT the fault of the EU or of EU membership that some communities have been allowed to deteriorate so much: the EU has given direct grants of billions of pounds to some areas that would probably never have been given by a UK government (eg £2Bn just to Cornwall) because UK governments have gamed the political returns from Treasury spend and probably see investing large sums in a small number of seats as a poor investment when they can make headline-grabbing spends in other areas. It's apparent that this has led to a potentially catastrophic exit from the EU, which is why I believe there will be political will on both sides (but not the far right obviously) to fix some of the long-standing problems if we stay in the EU.
12-09-2018 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
o really?
Indeed. I've made exactly the same point before that immigration is good for the economy but the benefits/resources are not distributed well.

The solution isn't to be anti-immigration, it's to make sure that the benefits/resources are well distributed.
12-09-2018 , 01:05 PM
Jalfezi,

I do see something we can actually agree on in all this, for a change. I do believe giving affected communities proper help is something I'd definitely get behind and would like to see.

I would prefer excising the EU out of all of it though, and national democracy deal with it - preferably in some sort of centre ground party (or one of the main parties reclaiming the centre ground).

      
m