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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

12-07-2018 , 12:05 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ur-theresa-may

"Labour could do a better Brexit deal. Give us the chance"
Jeremy Corbyn


12-07-2018 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
My stance has always been violence as a last resort, either to overthrow a regime when there's no democratic route, or as a prophylactic against emerging tyranny.
Last resort is my position. I'll assume your objections were playing to the peanut gallery rather than anything to take seriously

What about you wanting to make the UK more like the USA - can i treat that with the same seriousness or do you really mean it ?
12-07-2018 , 12:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Regardless of polling, a second referendum - would go "leave" because of what my father calls the "Mark Oaten effect".

Mark Oaten was a candidate who won a seat in the 1997 election but due to irregularities the losing candidate forced voting to be re-run later in the year. The result was that Oaten increased his majority by more than a million percent.

Basically people don't like to be made to vote again about matters which they see as already having been settled earlier and they're likely merely to reconfirm the result.
It's possible but then again the effect might be much smaller over something that really matters to people.

Plus one of the banes of politics is making use of ~no data to draw strong conclusions.
12-07-2018 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
So I assume you won't be complaining if leavers feel democracy is denied by remainer spoiler tactics leading to an overturning the first referendum results, and violence erupts?

Because, that would be hypocr...oh, wait...
You're repeating yourself.

By definition a more recent referendum makes the result of a previous referendum void, just as 2016 made the 70s referendum result void.

Now who's being hypocritical?

Sorry if you were to lose a new referendum, but thats democracy in action.
12-07-2018 , 12:23 PM
12-07-2018 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
So I assume you won't be complaining if leavers feel democracy is denied by remainer spoiler tactics leading to an overturning the first referendum results, and violence erupts?

Because, that would be hypocr...oh, wait...
You will notice that many proponents of that sort of violence only think it applies when they support it. They also have this strange idea they can control and direct it.

Fortunately the vast majority of leavers wont want any part of violence either even though they believe democracy is failing. More violent than remainer no doubt because of the extreme right but still a small minority.
12-07-2018 , 12:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
Last resort is my position. I'll assume your objections were playing to the peanut gallery rather than anything to take seriously

What about you wanting to make the UK more like the USA - can i treat that with the same seriousness or do you really mean it ?
Your position isn't last resort; it's let's wait until it's too late then we can wring our hands and say how much we regret not acting sooner etc etc. Does that remind you of any recent forums here? Just wondering

Now what's this che(e)zy nonsense about me wanting the UK to become more like the USA?
12-07-2018 , 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by medgar
So many tactics and options still available. No idea which will win out but this sort of thing is far from unlikely

It would be amendable so it could end up with a no deal option added. Remember most labour MPs have a sizable leave constituency as well.
12-07-2018 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Your position isn't last resort; it's let's wait until it's too late then we can wring our hands and say how much we regret not acting sooner etc etc. Does that remind you of any recent forums here? Just wondering

Now what's this che(e)zy nonsense about me wanting the UK to become more like the USA?
No my position is last resort. No rhetoric of yous will change that.

On the USA thingy I wont bother digging out the posts , I'll even accept I was plain wrong, and take it that you don't want the UK to become more like the USA. Happy to be wrong.
12-07-2018 , 12:36 PM
violence is short term symptom.

Disillusionment and distrust of mainstream parties will last for decades, and will be the real legacy of overturning the referendum via the various remainer tricks coupled with spineless politicians. I reckon the tories have a much, much keener sense of this than labour, who remain totally clueless that their antics are making them look like total chancers, especially when they go on about their impossible 6 item list and yet sit on the fence about where they really stand, and what they can actually achieve in reality...

I'm pretty sure May will go and Raab will be in place soon. May has essentially tried to pass off a bad deal as a good deal, and she's burning through her 'what a trooper' stock really fast by effectively bull****ting both sides of the house and indeed the country. Apparently, grass roots tories are refusing to show any kind of support for her deal now this legal advice stuff has blown up.

The tories are feeling the pressure now and they want someone who at least appears tough to have a fighting chance to get a decent score in next GE. I expect Raab to start popping up talking about 'it's gonna be tough, but we've been through worse, despite what you've heard we are ready for a no deal, and we can grab the opportunity if we have confidence' kind of talk.
12-07-2018 , 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
No my position is last resort. No rhetoric of yous will change that.

On the USA thingy I wont bother digging out the posts , I'll even accept I was plain wrong, and take it that you don't want the UK to become more like the USA. Happy to be wrong.
You're confusing me with someone else. It's probably an age thing

The only way I'd want the UK to become more like the USA is with Northern California's climate. The rest of the USA, morally, culturally and politically? **** me, no way.

One of the attractions of the EU for me was in taking the UK away from the malignant influence of the USA which over the past half a century or so has become a total basket case.
12-07-2018 , 12:40 PM
Good beer in nearly all cafes/restaurants as well. That may be more achievable although we're working hard on changing the climate.
12-07-2018 , 12:42 PM
I have an inkling May will resign Wednesday morning, or sometime soon after losing the vote. I hope the EU remain as intractable as they are being, cos then she's got nothing at that point, so gives her a clear and reasonable excuse to jump.
12-07-2018 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by martymc1
Only thing I find amazing about the graphic is the north of Ireland is missing.

You're talking to the wrong person about numbers.

NI was excluded 'because the different structure of census data from Northern Ireland prevented us from including this area at short notice.'
12-07-2018 , 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
You realise a lot, and I mean a lot, of people are starting to see this as the absolutely last chance to break away from the EU. And they've seen how the EU have been quite bullying in all this.

I like the odds if it's Remain/No Deal ref
What are you talking about? The EU has no reason whatsoever not to take a hard line on a member country unilaterally exiting the union. If anything the EU has been rather more compromising than could have been expected.
12-07-2018 , 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopie1
Alternatively the Mark Oaten effect is a one-off and there aren't enough data points to prove that this effect exists or is just bollocks.
I agree it's not enough data, but it seems to have also applied after other elections were voided in Oldham in 2010 or Bristol in 1961.
12-07-2018 , 03:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by martymc1
Only thing I find amazing about the graphic is the north of Ireland is missing.
That's because they didn't poll there. Tricky business. You may have forgotten Joanne Mathers, murdered by the IRA while collecting census returns in Derry in 1981, but I certainly haven't, and I never will.
12-07-2018 , 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopie1
That piece of piss that was exiting the EU has turned into threatening Ireland with famine. I am shocked to see walnut-brained Brexiteer Priti Patel advocating lunacy.
Patel is certainly a walnut-brained racist, but she didn't actually say what people claim she said. She noted government figures suggesting that Irish GDP would take a big hit and asked why this hadn't been stressed more in negotiations, imagining that the backstop could have been dropped.

The backstop can't be dropped. It's required by Britain's signature to the GFA, which is a binding international treaty. And Ireland's food-security position is far stronger than England's. It's the English who will starve if Brexit happens, not the Irish. And Patel is so stupid she probably hasn't even heard of the Great Hunger which my Irish forebears lived through. But this is the defective class of idiot politicians we're, for some reason, stuck with.
12-07-2018 , 03:38 PM
The government has now disclosed that, in the event of No Deal, not only will food supplies from abroad be held back in favour of medical supplies, but medical supplies will be so short that ministers will instruct pharmacists to ignore GPs' prescriptions, ration supplies and replace patent with generic drugs. This will be done under 'Henry VIII' powers so that relatives of those who die as a result can't sue.



https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1070936000841609217

Doesn't matter, in a way, because, for this and other reasons, the House is never going to permit No Deal. Every MP remembers Jo Cox and most of them remember Spencer Perceval, the only Prime Minister ever to be assassinated.

If May's Withdrawal Agreement fails in the House, as is expected, there can't be another referendum because you can't put May's deal on the ballot and you can't put No Deal on the ballot either. (MPs will not sign their own death warrants.) So Remain is the only option.
12-07-2018 , 03:48 PM
I hope you're right about that because the recent polls show that No Deal has an edge in a heads up vs Remain.
12-07-2018 , 04:17 PM
Remain need to push more project fear i guess

Or suggest we can get EU to reform, another great tactic.

If only remain could think of another argument to push their case, like something positive about the EU, rather than something negative about leaving the EU...

No, I got nothing.


Oh I have it, call all the people you don't agree with stupid racists. That might bring them around?
12-07-2018 , 04:55 PM
The failure of remain to make a positive case still sucks big time It's tough to do but at least we could be recognsing the genuine anger and frustration of so many people. If we go into another campaign still trying to scare people into voting remain while calling them stupid ignorant racists then we might just be ****ed.
12-07-2018 , 05:20 PM
Simple point: if you can't make a decent positive case for the EU, perhaps it's because the EU isn't very good.

Maybe some of its ideas like shared values, collaboration and common goals are what you like (it's what I like), but maybe its ways of working and the appearance that it is more about gaining greater levels of control over member states than good governance is the issue.

Maybe its current way of working is not fit for purpose, and deep down, a lot of people that support the EU for its virtues prefer to overlook its faults because there's no clear process to remedy them, and they know deep down the only way it can be fixed is by removing it and replacing it with a better model.

Last edited by diebitter; 12-07-2018 at 05:25 PM.
12-07-2018 , 05:25 PM
is 'lets be 10% richer' a positive case
12-07-2018 , 05:34 PM
You'd think, but it's like it's always sold as 'leave and you'll be 10% poorer'.

It always feel like even the biggest supporters of EU in the UK can't bring themselves to actually talk about it positively. Why should marginals or anti-EU's think any better of it than its biggest supporters?

      
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