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Old 08-10-2018, 05:19 PM   #10276
O.A.F.K.1.1
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
Speaking for myself, the economic point about Leave is that the EU is a small and declining part of the world in terms of population and GDP, and therefore it's not good to be tied in to taking imports from it to the exclusion of other potential trading partners.

Obviously we can get better deals on our imports by taking offers from the whole world on the things we can't do ourselves, the question marks are firstly whether we'll still be able to get exports shifted to the ROW more or less as well (e.g. quality of trade deals) - and secondarily the amount of import substitution relative to the EU (e.g. import fewer Renaults, export fewer Nissans). Now we can argue those things out again, but the argument will look the same as two years ago - the jury is still out on both of those things till the transition period ends.

The political stuff hasn't changed much either. It's even clearer that the EU is becoming a de facto country (Ireland isn't even at the table where its border is discussed) and the question is still whether or not we want to join it or keep the UK, as 2 years ago.
We did this before.

EU+Canada+Japan = largest trade block that has ever existed. Leave largest trade block in history to get better deals is retarded.

Also gravity of trade is basically a truism.
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:20 PM   #10277
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by heh View Post
It's sad if this is what you got out of the last 18 months, but you live your life.
Its also ironic in that ALDB is one of the most regurgitate posters itt.
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:21 PM   #10278
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Re: Brexit Referendum

I agree

I think it should be

brexit

Or

Full commitment to EU including ASAP adoption of Schengen and the euro

Let remainers and leavers really know what they're voting for.
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:23 PM   #10279
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
I agree

I think it should be

brexit

Or

Full commitment to EU including ASAP adoption of Schengen and the euro

Let remainers and leavers really know what they're voting for.
I'd like both of those but it's not on the table and not what we're voting for.
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Old 08-10-2018, 05:35 PM   #10280
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Re: Brexit Referendum

I don't believe a second referendum is likely any time soon. May is unlikely to call for another mandate, either an election/referendum, having already called for one and failed. It looks likely that she will be replaced with a leader to her right as that is where the Conservative base is at present and I doubt they will stand for 2 successive leaders parachuted in with no vote from party members. Plus the increasingly likely new centrist formation will pull remainers away from the tories.
It isn't in remainers best interests in any case as a bolstered leave vote is basically guaranteed with the addition of the EU playing hardball increasing hostility to them, on top of all the arguments for and against which have been done to death already. There is also the possibility of an increased turnout, in the favour of leave.
The best possibility of remaining in the EU is to rely on the status quo as it plays out, undemocratic as it is. The EU will not agree to brexit, they must punish the UK and not set a precedent, and since no deal won't happen under this govt there will be an extension to the process. There is no onus on the govt to take proper heed of the referendum result except opportunist populism which is ultimately a much weaker force than the gravity of remaining in the EU. With that said, beware of a disenfranchised radical far right alignment becoming an inevitable outcome of continued EU membership.
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Old 08-10-2018, 06:45 PM   #10281
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
We did this before.

EU+Canada+Japan = largest trade block that has ever existed.
Have you thought of your answer yet?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
Ok. Perhaps the pro-EU posters will explain how this can possibly work without Japan and Canada having to:
1) allow free movement for anyone who wants to move there
2) sign up to the social chapter
3) accept the supremacy of ECJ in deciding any disputes in the relationship
4) change the colour of their passport
5) give up their seat at the WTO
6) share their fish?
7) allow only the EU to negotiate trade deals with other countries on their behalf?

or are those things only necessary when the country concerned is occupying part of what the EU considers to be part of its future national territory?
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Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
Isn't it reasonable to say that it would be more suitable for the UK to join "the biggest free trade area in history" without having all the other stuff that bothers its people so much related to building a political union, so we should have a deal more comparable to Canada or Japan than that of Luxembourg?
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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Leave largest trade block in history to get better deals is retarded.
Not necessarily if the current deal restricts import partners.
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Old 08-10-2018, 09:53 PM   #10282
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Re: Brexit Referendum

I mean, it's possible that by leaving the biggest trade union on the planet and relinquishing its political influence within the European community the UK will immediately be able to strike a series of hugely positive trade deals that were previously unattainable because of the restriction of teaming up with the likes of Germany and France. But I'd suggest it's at least equally likely that the UK will end up begging for scraps from the tables of the likes of the US and China, its economy will disappear up its own arse, the welfare state will quickly become unsustainable and the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg will hoover up the scraps as the bottom 99.9% starve to death. But hey, at least we'll have the freedom to negotiate our own trade deals and we'll no longer be beholden to the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels. And there will be fewer Poles, Romanians, Hungarians and ******s.
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Old 08-11-2018, 01:14 AM   #10283
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Re: Brexit Referendum

If the under 25's can be bothered to turn up and vote, Brexit is dead.
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Old 08-11-2018, 01:45 AM   #10284
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by LostOstrich View Post
I mean, it's possible that by leaving the biggest trade union on the planet and relinquishing its political influence within the European community the UK will immediately be able to strike a series of hugely positive trade deals that were previously unattainable because of the restriction of teaming up with the likes of Germany and France. But I'd suggest it's at least equally likely that the UK will end up begging for scraps from the tables of the likes of the US and China, its economy will disappear up its own arse, the welfare state will quickly become unsustainable and the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg will hoover up the scraps as the bottom 99.9% starve to death. But hey, at least we'll have the freedom to negotiate our own trade deals and we'll no longer be beholden to the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels. And there will be fewer Poles, Romanians, Hungarians and ******s.
So you think this all hinges on 'immediately' having deals?

This is the long game. Retain nationhood or become a district of the USE is the simple long game choice.

I remain surprised that so many remainers do not appreciate this - which is why, if there's another referendum, this is the choice they should be making. They could do with a dose of reality.

If the majority vote for being a district of USE, I'll be a good democrat and go with it. It's the sheer underhandedness of the power-leaching of the EU project that I loathe so much. Honesty I can abide.
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Old 08-11-2018, 02:08 AM   #10285
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Re: Brexit Referendum

The reason I do not appreciate that (as a Remainer) is because I'm not into paranoid fan fiction involving a complete dissolution of the nation state.
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Old 08-11-2018, 02:28 AM   #10286
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Would you deny there has been piecemeal dissolution?
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Old 08-11-2018, 03:35 AM   #10287
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by heh View Post
The reason I do not appreciate that (as a Remainer) is because I'm not into paranoid fan fiction involving a complete dissolution of the nation state.
Would you rejoin EU if terms were taking the euro and accepting Schengen? If not, why not? (if you avoid answering he question, I will understand why, it's a difficult one)

Do you think the level of integration the EU has achieved is the end of the process, or just part of the long term journey to more integration?
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Old 08-11-2018, 04:27 AM   #10288
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
Would you rejoin EU if terms were taking the euro and accepting Schengen? If not, why not? (if you avoid answering he question, I will understand why, it's a difficult one)

Do you think the level of integration the EU has achieved is the end of the process, or just part of the long term journey to more integration?
If the choices were to leave the EU or rejoin with your caveats, then I would choose rejoining every day of every week, etc.
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Old 08-11-2018, 05:10 AM   #10289
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Re: Brexit Referendum

schengen is good too. but nobody is forced into either
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Old 08-11-2018, 07:14 AM   #10290
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
Have you thought of your answer yet?
.
Go back and try reading the thread, someone answered that question.

Also its a strange type of rebuff or debating point, thing that is actually in existence and easily checkable in 1sec on google, must not exist because I have not been given an adequate response about it on 2+2.

Typical of the mangled cognitive dissonance that is your calling card.
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Old 08-11-2018, 12:39 PM   #10291
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by jalfrezi View Post
If the under 25's can be bothered to turn up and vote, Brexit is dead.
Could

And if you're talking about a hypothetical rerun (redoing referenda until you get the result the EU wants seems like standard practice), what makes you think that this'll happen?
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Old 08-11-2018, 05:03 PM   #10292
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Re: Brexit Referendum

This will
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Old 08-11-2018, 08:00 PM   #10293
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by jalfrezi View Post
This will
1: he wasn't correcting your grammar, he was pointing out that the vote has already happened.

2: This'll is a legitimate contraction of this will (at least in an informal environment such as this), so your correction of his grammar is a fail anyway.
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Old 08-11-2018, 09:13 PM   #10294
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Re: Brexit Referendum

I don't get the aversion to redoing referenda. It seems that's a thing that should happen regularly in a democracy, just like voting for MPs.
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Old 08-12-2018, 03:35 AM   #10295
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Re: Brexit Referendum

Agree. Referenda about any process that has signed away national democratic powers should be as regular as general elections imo.

The problem is the referenda involving the EU are used as a gating mechanism to move control towards the greater centralisation of EU powers - once you vote in, there's rarely any referenda to vote out again.

The people of Europe aren't stupid, it's a standing joke about how controlling the EU are, that they can be the root cause of referendums being run over and over till the results suit the EU.

Last edited by diebitter; 08-12-2018 at 03:41 AM.
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Old 08-12-2018, 04:06 AM   #10296
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by _dave_ View Post
I don't get the aversion to redoing referenda. It seems that's a thing that should happen regularly in a democracy, just like voting for MPs.
It's the power to call a referendum that can be abused. If it's automatic, conventional or regular then it's fine.

While I'm uncomfortable with the notion of 'asking again because we don't like the last answer', this is a bit different because
a) our government is trying for a compromise that ~no-one wants
b) it's so important that it's reasonable to check if a significant number of people have changed their minds.

Hopefully we will also have leaned for the future that referendum need to produce a much clearer result. Both in the margin of victory required for seismic change, and on what the ****ing question means
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Old 08-12-2018, 05:03 AM   #10297
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by diebitter View Post
These polls that say the UK would now vote remain cos its 52% remain and 48% in the latest 1000 person poll seem to have forgotten what the polls were saying just before the actual referendum, arent they...
The trend is clearly going one way though. Before last year's general election it was near impossible to find a reliable poll indicating a remain preference. That is no longer the case. There's some obfuscation because the question is never quite the same, but polling is indicating a noticeable shift in attitude amongst the electorate as it becomes clearer that Brexiteer promises on how negotiations would pan out are exposed for folly.

This is now becoming an issue of time, more than argument. We will inevitably* reach a point where polling solidly indicates a significant cross sectional majority for remain / noBrexit in some form. What is unlikely is that we will reach it quick enough for MPs to feel confident in beating the drum for another vote against the wishes of their leaders. Brexiteers are where they need to be, no deal achieves their aims and they simply need to retain the current status quo and path through to March of next year and time expires.

*I say inevitably because I don't see any significant shift in the tenor of negotiations, economic forecasting or performance of the pound between now and March. As those trends go, so will the changing preferences of the non core Brexiteer electorate. That and deaths of older voters every month which weaken the Brexiteer base of the electorate. Brexiteers complain that the negotiations prove the EU as the big bad vindictive wolves they painted them as before the referendum; but the middle part of the electorate don't care. They'll just see the major facts and rationally move away from Leave as something they support.
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Old 08-12-2018, 05:12 AM   #10298
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
It's even clearer that the EU is becoming a de facto country (Ireland isn't even at the table where its border is discussed) and the question is still whether or not we want to join it or keep the UK, as 2 years ago.
Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney may not be at the table, but their positions and those of the Irish electorate have been robustly represented at the table at all times throughout the Brexit negotiations. Given Brexiteers never seemed to consider the implications of the GFA or the Irish border before the referendum or triggering of article 50, the fact that they have been such a pain in the hole for JRM / Johnson et al speaks to the extent to which Irish interests have formed part of the conversation.

And, rather ironically, Brexit is proving the biggest threat to the UK since World War II. Scotland and Northern Ireland will most likely be lost in the event of a No Deal Brexit and the concept of the Union being beneficial for all has been exposed throughout the entire process, as it becomes clearer than ever that the desires of England and Wales drive what happens to people in Scotland and Northern Ireland, their democratic wishes be damned.
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Old 08-12-2018, 05:55 AM   #10299
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by sixfour View Post
Could

And if you're talking about a hypothetical rerun (redoing referenda until you get the result the EU wants seems like standard practice), what makes you think that this'll happen?
Surely that's secondary to doing what's best for your country.

Brexit is a ****ed up mess already, I don't really want to experience the coming consequences.
 
Old 08-12-2018, 06:01 AM   #10300
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Re: Brexit Referendum

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Originally Posted by LuckyLloyd View Post
Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney may not be at the table, but their positions and those of the Irish electorate have been robustly represented at the table at all times throughout the Brexit negotiations. Given Brexiteers never seemed to consider the implications of the GFA or the Irish border before the referendum or triggering of article 50, the fact that they have been such a pain in the hole for JRM / Johnson et al speaks to the extent to which Irish interests have formed part of the conversation.

And, rather ironically, Brexit is proving the biggest threat to the UK since World War II. Scotland and Northern Ireland will most likely be lost in the event of a No Deal Brexit and the concept of the Union being beneficial for all has been exposed throughout the entire process, as it becomes clearer than ever that the desires of England and Wales drive what happens to people in Scotland and Northern Ireland, their democratic wishes be damned.
Why bother?

The dishonest ****er knows the Irish interests are being represented.
 

 
      

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