On the hope a deal is on the way and brexit wont be too hard?

Anyway, I'm just pointing out how weak the tarif/culture argument is. Plenty of extra cod is up for grabs, it's not at all clear that exports to the EU will go down rather than up. and exports to row are more likely to go up. [And culture can change fast if prices/supply change but I doubt we get far on that argument if we disagree].

Hard to see any of that outweighing being able to catch a lot more of a valuable product.

Some nearly most of the fish the Brits wont eat is already way cheaper than Cod.

No there is not plenty of Cod up for grabs. Most of it is already in non EU countries. That wont let us fish there.

Also the will be able to catch A LOT more of a valuable product is pure Daily Mail/Farage narrative.

Fish are valuable. The idea we wouldn't be able to sell them if the quota's ended because of tariff's / culture was, as explained above, very weak. Making the brexiters right about something is bad enough but you cant then dismiss it just because they take advantage of it.

@chezlaw

Don't waste your time with this guy. He's a markets truther who was in the thread before the referendum using pretty much the same phrase to people who said the weaker pound would help exports after Brexit, but he dresses it up in this kind of pseudo-teacher language to make him sound good.

Do a search on his posts from 2 years ago and you'll find stuff like

e.g.
Pretty much everything he wrote then has since been shown to be incorrect, including his classic mocking of Nissan workers voting themselves out of jobs into increased investment.

He did assure us that:

No, you're a faker and you've been exposed.

We need tariffs and quotas on chez's tariff's and quota's.

Just to refresh who has been exposed.

A very weak pound is utter AIDS for the UK economy is pure economic consensus. No one with any rudimentary economic understanding would dispute this.

You managed to find one economist who does dispute this, who claimed that whilst a very weak pound would be good for the UK economy it would also destroy manufacturing, the very industry you were using his work to claim a weak pound would help. looooooooooooooooooooooooooooool. Also that one economist is a laughing stock in the economic community.

Being called a faker by you is a badge of honour.

Stop it, you are just making absurd claim after absurd claim.

You are saying the demand for fish is completely elastic?

Even now not every fish that is landed is sold or is sold at a rate far below market rate to be used in a subsidiary product (pet food etc).

One thing the EU quotas try to achieve is avoiding massive drops in price when a lot of one particular fish is landed and supply>>>demand.

It still happens.

I live near Newlyn and its common practice to hop down to the fish market and get a bargain from lots that have not sold.

Also nice try at typical leaver style misrepresentation.

Selling less =! not selling them that all.

What we do know, however, is that it's just good politics to go and throw dead fish in the Thames.

Aside from that, campaigners against Brexit were out in full force today as I was making my way to the office. I'm amazed that they're still trying (and I admire them for it!)

You stop it. You claim with absolute certainty that higher prices for exports means lower sales but run away from your logic when it's pointed out that prices are more likely to be lower than the past.

Your economic arguments are simply very weak because it's not at all clear that prices will be higher than they used to be or that exports will be hurt at all. That's even ignoring the rest of the world where export prices are more likely to be lower.

You can't just hide behind the claim that anything that disagrees with the way over-zealous remain economic claims is siding with the leavers.

If there's a hard Brexit, I think fishing is going to be a fairly small problem in comparison with other damage to the UK economy. shrug

We will never give up. If brexit goes ahead the campaign to rejoin will start.

Which I think is absolutely the right way to go about it. Most leavers, who now demand that democracy is respected, etc., seem to forget that Nigel Farage famously said that even if the referendum was lost he'd never stop campaigning for leaving the EU.

the real danger is that we'll go back to the old days of overfishing without the cfp. fishing stocks are finally mostly healthy because some pretty strict quotas were set, but it was a hard fight were politicians always wanted higher quotas this year and didn't care that it would hurt a couple years down the line.

i don't have much faith in uk politicians standing up to short term thinking, special interests and dumb tabloid pressure to secure the long term health.

the truth is the tragedy of the commons is real and the cfp (finally) works really well to avoid it

Indeed and we must respect democracy.

Remaining by some backdoor method would be a disaster. Remain (or rejoin) has to win another referendum or a General Election with a clear mandate.

lol what?

I have not run away from anything. I did point out that your claims about the devaluation were completely false. Also that same pointing out shows that the devaluation effect is diminishing and is predicted to carry on diminishing.

However who knows with currency, its effect is not as predictable as a hard administrative legal tarrif.

Also maybe its gone whoooosh over your head, but its hard Brexit which we are discussing.

There are lots of leave options, one that allows fishermen to export with out tarrifs but carry on enjoying remnants of the devaluation effect are obviously best.

Unless you are working off the completely Farage assumption that hard Brexit means more fish landed.

Over fishing or catching too young is a real danger - not just from the UK end. Competition for the fish can cause all sorts of problems.

There's also plenty of scope for conflict between countries over fishing. (Not talkign about actual wars which are somewhat unlikely).

I think one area that's being ignored in the fishing debate is the heating of fishing waters meaning a lot of fish are seeking out waters a lot north of what they used to. apparently it's impacted Icelandic fishing a lot (and I only know that from talking to someone in the fishing industry yesterday)

devaluation predicted to carry on dimishing even with a hard brexit?

Beyind that, no it's not jsut about a hard brexity.

I was chatting to a colleague about how immigration is still cited by the public as the main reason they voted for Leave.

Me: Most people are racist to some degree.

Him: I don't agree, it's all about having a shared language.

Me: That's a separate issue that most people think is important, but it's used by many as a proxy for racism.

Him: Why do you say that?

Me: Given a choice between a random non English speaking 'professional' German family moving next door to you and a random English speaking 'professional' Kenyan family, which would you choose?

Him: Germans

I had a long working holiday in Devon and based on my experience there, it seems nonsensical to say that the Brexit vote had nothing to do with racism.

My oldest friend's wife is black. When they went on holiday to Cornwall only 10 years ago, there were loud comments in one pub about golliwogs.

You do realise that devaluation is a double edged sword right?

Fuel is a massive expense of fishing, as is it also of exporting that fish, mostly by lorry to Europe.

What they gain on the swings of devaluation they lose on the roundabouts. Add in tariffs and yes the most likely outcome of hard brexit is an increase in the price of UK fish exports. Its a simple non controverial reality.

Of course in your unicorns world, the British will suddenly start consuming fish they have had the opportunity to consume for generations.

So lets look at fishing from a non Chezfarage perspective.

etc

http://nffo.org.uk/eu-referendum/201...fishing-policy

It's 13% if you count the EEZ of French Polynesia as EU waters.

The 30% is only of fish species that live in UK waters so you're not comparing like with like.

Next time don't post a link and you won't get found out.

I only said it was a non chezfarage perspective. Note the use of the word perspective, implying subjectivity.

Im glad I have reduced you to a mere stalker troll.