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Originally Posted by grizy
Brexit causing a decline or slow down in manufacturing isn't even conjecture anymore. The data and industry surveys strongly back the narrative that Brexit is hurting the British economy.
BBC is a remain website, but even they aren't arguing that:
"UK manufacturing output at its highest for 10 years"
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42633502
It is reasonable to predict there will be a lot of disruption after 2020, a lot depends how much we on-shore our supply chains before then, how ready we are to substitute imports from the EU with local production and so on - also depends what's negotiated before then but it isn't harming manufacturing yet.
I've said before, if you think the world will end in 5 years anyway, then Remain is by far the simplest and best option. Longer term than that, if it's difficult to trade with the EU from outside then we're better off on the "world" side of the barrier rather than the EU side.
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Originally Posted by IAMTHISNOW
Yes lecktor one of the main reasons people voted for Brexit is so we can have more brown immigrants and less white ones.
With 17 million voters you can find all kinds of reasons why people voted. Undoubtedly there are some who wanted to stop all those black people coming over from Poland.
You also have people who see the situation as discriminatory:
Waiter from UK marries person from India. Cannot get spousal visa due to low income.
Person from Portugal marries person from India. Can come to work in the UK as a waiter and bring wife with them under EU freedom of movement rules.
Waiter from UK marries person from Portugal. Spousal visa not required under EU freedom of movement rules.
A lot of people on the wrong end of that voted out.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38762034
"in parts of London some Asian populations were more likely to support Leave"
though overall it's true that more white people voted out that people from other races.
I'm not claiming to speak for all the different reasons why people voted leave, but I just think habsfan's assertion that the EU is against people who want immigrants only from particular countries doesn't make sense when the EU has that built in.
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Originally Posted by Willd
When you describe one of the biggest Trump supporters and a committed member (arguably leader) of Trump's cult of personality in this way you'd think you might start questioning your position.
I just googled him, apparently he changed his endorsement several times between Trump, Clinton and Johnson. Sad!
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Or is your view that any law passed, so long as by democratically elected governments, should stand and the EU should do nothing?
In my opinion the bar here is where the law passed interferes with the ability of the populace to remove that government at a later time - e.g. cancelling elections, removing voters from electoral rolls etc.
Something like in the UK moving from drawing constituencies based on number of registered voters rather than total population doesn't qualify for example.
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The cartoon suggests that making assumptions are bad, when it's 100% necessary. The model and assumptions selection are crucial too, obviously, but your comments about a "4th pane" makes no sense. The third pane has the guy wanting to talk about the projections (ie model + assumptions + results), and other guy doesn't want to hear any details as assumptions are made and assumptions = bad.
Maybe, but in practice people who link to the output of these models are never offering a discussion on the assumptions behind them. It's like Schumacher's "calculating machine" that serves only to hide the assumptions when it would be more honest just to assume the result.
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I use modelling for my job as the advice we give 100% depends on making reasonable assessments of the future. There is literally no other way to do it. We vary assumptions, disclose them, provide funnels of doubt (so you know what the 5th percentile of badness looks like, for example). This enables people to make informed decisions.
Yet you approach published studies on leaving the EU without the same ability to think critically about how the results are arrived at and why all the predictions so far have been wrong, because "experts".
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Originally Posted by pyatnitski
There's a lot of "not elected", "non democratic" mentioned in this thread.
Specifically, about the European Commission - it is the Executive branch of the EU. It is nominated by the European Council, the heads of state, elected by the citizens (after the commission head is approved they are also involved in the nomination). Each member is then approved by the European Parliament - also directly elected by the citizens.
This is, in fact, very slightly more democratic than the UK and France, the two European democracies I've lived under. In both of those the executive is simply appointed by someone directly elected by the citizens, there is no separate approval process.
In both cases ministers/commissioners are indirectly appointed rather than elected directly. Maybe we should elect each minister or commissioner directly but no country does this so ok.
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Originally Posted by pyatnitski
Should add that the above ignores objections that see a democratic system elected by non nation state entities as inherently illegitimate. I'm happy for people who think that to regard my post as bunkum.
The problem is the following: it's highly unlikely in any election that one vote will change the outcome, and even if you do happen to cast the deciding vote, you may have got it wrong in the end or it may only make a small difference. Therefore voting is very close to 0EV, and bad move compared to e.g. working an extra hour overtime, watching TV, playing online poker or whatever which are all +EV.
It only makes sense to vote if you see yourself as part of a large group of people doing something collectively, "we're all voting Obama this time, we're all kicking the Tories out, we're all voting Leave" or whatever.
That's why European elections don't work. They are treated as opinion polls on the situation in national politics or on the EU in general. "We're giving Labour a bloody nose this time", "We're going to say up your Delors this time" or whatever.
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Originally Posted by tomj
So I read some "questionable stuff" which you cant be bothered to read.
I would prefer to take seriously an African trade unionist who has no vested interests, instead of EU propaganda - EU says: EU good, shock horror.
The thing here is that individual countries can have good or bad policies too. Don't choose whether you're going to be British or a USEan based on whether you like or dislike particular policies of the UK or EU government as that stuff is all transitory.
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Originally Posted by Louis Cyphre
Erode judiciary independence
But why isn't this a problem when a pro-EU government does it?