A post in which a Brexiter thinks that things are going great as a weak pound and global growth boosts some exports, just as the Chancellor slashes the UK growth forecast in the Budget speech.

This is real life Jim, but not as we know it.

Lol.

Richard Haas had something to say about the impartial Brit gov and their DUP partners.

****s one and all.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/new...-36341515.html

He's not the only one who thinks there'll be a bigger push for Irish reunification now. Stupid Tory bastards have shot themselves in the foot. Unlikely they gaf though.

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opi...aass-1-8257191

Both articles will have a unionist slant from those publications, but I'm sure you'll get the gist of it.

I find 'slashed' a little melodramatic when its from 2.0% to 1.5%, and the accuracy for 'forecasting' LAST quarter's GDP, just after it happened, is > +-0.1%pt.

How accurate do you think our assessment of what would have happened under a remain scenario is?

And then to 1.3% by 2020. That is a big difference and below EU projections I believe. Remember that two months of -ve GDP growth is called a recession, though it's only 1.3% lower than the 2020 forecast.

Nobody is saying that it's armageddon, but it's bad news and there isn't really any positive spin to put on it. The stuff about decent export orders with the devalued pound is just silly. You always get that when a local currency devalues.

When you realise it's a 25% cut, it is indeed "slashed".

It's not a 25% cut by any practically useful measure, its a 0.493% cut from 1.020 to 1.015.

If it was from a forecast of +0.01% to -0.05%, would that be a 600% cut, or would it be F.A. difference?

Some remain arguments denied that there were any benefits to a weaker pound, so this is important.

Almost everyone agreed that re balancing the economy is a good thing, and this is one step towards it.

The level of analysis in that argument was mostly limited to 'weak is bad word', so I think it is worth pointing out.

Also, we would need to hear whether the population forecast has dropped by more than 0.5%pts, the economy growth figure alone is basically meaningless.

The ONS may have released another dataset since the initial projections but I'm pretty sure that this has very little, if anything, to do with it.

You can look all you like, but the cost of Brexit is being revealed gradually as we go. You can deny it, or just say it's not an apocalypse so who cares, but it is the reality.

The most popular business case was described as a hockey stick, so you are not contradicting it or proving it wrong if you try to highlight small potential downwards pressure in the short term.

Not that this effectively makes the case that the forecasts would be on target in the remain scenario.

Have you or Mike checked whether the ONS' latest forecasts take into account Brexit impact?

1 Please give examples from credible economists that state, and provide justification, for this "hockey stick" growth shape. And a hockey stick shape isn't really much good if the GDP never catches up with where it would otherwise have been - that's no good at all and would just mean that there was a hit as the cost of taking on EU functions etc hits and then things smooth over to be worse than they would otherwise have been. You seem to be suggesting that the end of the hockey stick is higher than on a remain scenario. Who has been saying this?

2 "Small potential downwards pressure" - Jesus, the initial forecast was only made in March (ie when it factored in Brexit). This is another significant drop.

Not checked but I'd think that whatever the gvt use would factor it in. In any case, we are not talking that many years ahead.

Democratic accountability means the most important politician in the North is James ****ing Brokenshire.

First on his agenda is an amnesty for the murdering bastards dressed in Brit army uniforms and the RUC, by enforcing a statute of limitations.

Wants to copy Mugabe, Chile/Pinochet and the Argentine junta by giving immunity to the state for their actions.

Local commentary says the budget for here is a DUP wishlist.

Few years of this and we'll see mayhem like never before.

Check any article that is not just a meme. The ONS has not produced a forecast that includes Brexit effect. And immigration has already dropped even before we leave.

You're a very sad person. And, what with the edit-note, a bit... cowardly.

Nope im still here to back up my words, something you don't have the courage to do.

honestly england voted for this garbage so we pretty much deserve it, but if the tories **** up the irish peace process over all this nonsense thats really inexcusable.

Can provide numerous examples of the murdering bastards in action if you like


We'll start with Fisher and Wright Ok?

Not sure what point you are trying to make - are you seriously suggesting that the drop in expected GDP is down to lower net immigration than expected in March?

You realise that revising a forecast is embarrassing for the government and if they had a genuine excuse, especially one that would make their base smile, it would be rolled out with red carpet and trumpets?

If anyone cares they should have a look at last night's Nolan show.

Was a rerun of dozens of conversations they had on there 20+ years ago.

Imo he's a loud mouth enabler of the PUL community but it will give some idea how ****ed up this place is.

So, not much differance between 0.1% growth and -0.4% growth, it's only .5% difference.

Again you demonstrate your inability to comprehend that you have to look at the move in terms of the size of the data points.

Would it only be non melodramatic if it was a cut from 100% growth to 75% growth?

Then again you are the guy who thinks a 10 year stagnation in wages is just due to data movements in the last 3 months and cant be a trend.

The article also said:
10% yeah.

But when we are in the Business of sharing articles:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/23/news...ain/index.html