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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

09-21-2017 , 02:29 PM
You mean the Bank Of England?
09-21-2017 , 02:51 PM
i dont think it's really helpful to call people stupid. we're all stupid to some degree and biased in our views. i have a harder time with the anti-immigration stuff, but we're all human, which means stupid and full of faults
09-21-2017 , 05:39 PM
All animals are stupid but some are more stupid than others.
09-21-2017 , 06:28 PM
In Marty's percentages at the bottom of post 7798 he has the Leave voters in NI and Scotland as suckers, but in Wales he has the Remain voters as the suckers - why the difference? Or is it part of his thing that it was just England? If you look at the results, the difference between Leave and Remain in England is less than the total number of Remain votes in Scotland and NI. What got it over the line was the stacks of Leave votes (more than 2 million) cast in the 3 smalller countries of the UK.

Also "Remain" is equally poorly defined. The EU will change immensely over the next 10 years, let alone the 40 years which is the standard length of time between EU membership referendums.
09-22-2017 , 02:08 AM
Or marty just messed up the numbers.

Yes a vote for Brexit means you're a sucker. Still hasn't been thought through and the EU going to do their best to bend the UK over.

Complete ****ing mess.
09-22-2017 , 05:42 AM
maybe the boris stuff was just a typical sitcom misunderstanding and they actually agreed all along http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7959971.html

Last edited by daca; 09-22-2017 at 05:48 AM.
09-22-2017 , 12:14 PM
So the humiliation of Britain reaches new levels. Theresa May speech consisted of a plea to be allowed to stay in the Single Market for an extra two years surrounded by a load of waffling fluff.
09-22-2017 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
a billion hours have been spent on all this nonsense and it'll probably end up with the uk copying everything the eu does
Copying everything the EU currently does is absolutely fine right now. I didn't vote Brexit to change our current policies, I voted to make them changeable.
09-22-2017 , 01:32 PM
No more immigrants!
09-24-2017 , 03:32 PM
So how are we viewing the process so far brexiteers? Happy with what you've done still?
09-24-2017 , 04:01 PM
Prediction: the answer will depend on whether they think they'll be fewer immigrants.
09-24-2017 , 05:13 PM
Not really happy how its going tbh, but it's still way, way, way better than being lumbered with the ze EU being in charge for several decades to come.

Last edited by diebitter; 09-24-2017 at 05:20 PM.
09-24-2017 , 06:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
Not really happy how its going tbh, but it's still way, way, way better than being lumbered with the ze EU being in charge for several decades to come.
I'm getting a fair bit more hopeful that we wont leave. Relying on May being unable to survive as whatever outcome she settles on starts to crystallise. Then it's game on. The other key thing is popular opinion. The remain camp needs to build up momentum to demonstrate that they would win if there was another vote (and then win it if it happens). If leave can win again then there's no chance.

I also expect that there will be much drama in UK politics before the dust settles. Something extraordinary is a favorite in my book.
09-24-2017 , 07:27 PM
I actually think the opposite. No deal at all and a hard Brexit is getting more and more likely. They are wasting too much time and extension of the 2 years or a transition period is not as easy as the UK tries to make it sound. There is no legal basis for that so it has to go through all EU countries for approval and that will take too long.
09-24-2017 , 07:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutch101
I actually think the opposite. No deal at all and a hard Brexit is getting more and more likely. They are wasting too much time and extension of the 2 years or a transition period is not as easy as the UK tries to make it sound. There is no legal basis for that so it has to go through all EU countries for approval and that will take too long.
That's not the opposite. Either there will be a deal or it will boil down to a straight fight between 'No deal' and 'Remain'.

If May cannot deliver than 'No Deal' and 'Remain' both become more likely. The other possibility is someone else replacing May and delivering a deal.
09-24-2017 , 11:00 PM
Remain is no longer an option. The UK left and is in their 2 year notice period. From here the only 2 options are a hard brexit or a ratified new deal. That new deal could of course be the same deal as before invoking article 50 but even that needs to be ratified by all members. Several members will see thid as a great opportunity to get some of that rebate money that used to go back to the UK.
09-24-2017 , 11:10 PM
Remain is definitely an option. The UK hasn't left yet. It's an outsider but it's still in the running and imo gaining on the field.

I'm fairly sure that Farage and other fervent leavers are a bit concerned. Quite right to be too.
09-25-2017 , 12:25 AM
Article 50 has no provisions to retract it once invoked. So your 'definitely' is wishfull thinking. At best it will end up in the courts if the UK tries to retract article 50 and remain. In reality it is no longer an option.
09-25-2017 , 01:43 AM
When most of the political class including some prominent Leave campaigners want to Remain, and when the referendum margin was so thin, there's always been the possibility of some political fudge/events changing the landscape enough to justify a final referendum.

The only thing recent generations of politicians appear to be good at is fudge and spin; in fact they're masters of the dark arts.

We've already seen the economy flat line and growth sink to the lowest of the G7. If this persists while inflation continues to rise the Bank will probably have to raise interest rates and then things will start to get very interesting politically.

I still have trouble imagining the UK not in the EU - like it or not it's where the UK belongs - and if we do leave I don't think it will take too long for an economic slump and demographic changes to produce a consensus in favour of becoming part of it again (though on what terms is anyone's guess).

Last edited by jalfrezi; 09-25-2017 at 01:52 AM.
09-25-2017 , 01:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
Not really happy how its going tbh, but it's still way, way, way better than being lumbered with the ze EU being in charge for several decades to come.
Yes. You don't have to like your current government to want your country to be independent, you just have to not be a Vasil Bilak-style traitor seeking political allies in other countries to overule the people of your own country. So yes the Tories are awful but the answer is for more people not to vote for them.

But as for how the process is going - the EU clearly isn't capable of cutting a deal. It will be easier to get out and then negotiate from outside once the effects of leaving are more well known on the continent.

Everyone on the continent thinks they will just find new markets for their products within the EU itself - some will of course but at the expense of others. E.g. the 3 billion euros worth of cars exported from Slovakia to the UK will either stop being made or it will replace production in Germany currently serving EU markets. I'm not sure to what extent the average car worker in Germany realises that Barnier and Juncker are playing games not just with his access to the UK market but also his ability to sell competitvely within the EU too. Probably only after a hard brexit will they actually get it.

P.S.
@Dutch101 - the two year extension being talked about isn't an extension of the Article 50 period, it's a separate agreement to stay in the single market for 2019-2021 years then leave.

@Jalfrezi - you keep playing this immigration card like it's a winner, can I ask, what is the maximum population you would consider desirable for the UK?
09-25-2017 , 07:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ

Everyone on the continent thinks they will just find new markets for their products within the EU itself - some will of course but at the expense of others. E.g. the 3 billion euros worth of cars exported from Slovakia to the UK will either stop being made or it will replace production in Germany currently serving EU markets. I'm not sure to what extent the average car worker in Germany realises that Barnier and Juncker are playing games not just with his access to the UK market but also his ability to sell competitvely within the EU too. Probably only after a hard brexit will they actually get it.
What is this utter nonsense. Are you so deluded that you think that Britain is going to substitute EU imports?
09-25-2017 , 07:31 AM
Clearly the expectation seems to be Brexit will hit the UK economy so hard, that people won't be able to buy cars anymore. I think that's a little too pessimistic.
09-25-2017 , 07:54 AM
after transition:

remain - 0%

continued single market membership/eea - 15%

some dumb trade deal - 80%

no deal - 5%
09-25-2017 , 08:16 AM
I know the 2 year extension being talked about is not part of article 50. Which means they need a ratified deal to even get an extension. My point has always been that they will run out of time before agreeing and ratifying any deal and hard brexit will kick in automatically.
09-25-2017 , 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
@Jalfrezi - you keep playing this immigration card like it's a winner, can I ask, what is the maximum population you would consider desirable for the UK?
The UK can build many more cities to accommodate the growing working population it needs to pay for its infrastructure and welfare state, and its UBI when it probably arrives.

      
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