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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

06-20-2017 , 06:23 AM
hammond's idea is that we'd stick with rules which prevent us signing traid dealzzz with others but wouldn't prevent us negotiating them, so presumably the plan is to spend a few years hammering out dem dealz and then when enough of them are ready to go, drop out of the customs union

some eutards seem determined to make the process as painful as possible for all concerned tho so maybe they'd try to prevent such an arrangement
06-20-2017 , 09:55 AM
Carney warns of the road ahead.
Quote:
The Bank of England's Governor, Mark Carney, has spelled out that in the Bank's view Brexit will make Britain worse off than otherwise and also appeared to take an indirect swipe at the optimistic view of Boris Johnson and others that the UK can "have its cake and eat it" after we leave the European Union.

In his Mansion House speech on Tuesday morning Mr Carney said that "weaker real income growth [is] likely to accompany the transition to new trading arrangements with the EU".

This assumption was embedded in the Bank's latest official forecasts which showed the level of UK GDP in 2019 relative to its pre-June referendum forecasts lower by around 1.5 per cent, or £30bn in today's money.

But this is the most explicit the Governor, who has been attacked by some hardline Brexiteers for supposedly "talking down" the economy, has been on the issue.

Referring to the slump in sterling since last June's vote, Mr Carney told his audience that "markets have already anticipated some of the adjustment" and suggested that without a post-2019 transition process for the UK, which would retain single market and customs union membership for the UK for a period, the situation could deteriorate further and cause some firms to move operations out of Britain.

"Depending on whether and when any transition arrangement can be agreed, firms on either side of the channel may soon need to activate contingency plans. Before long, we will all begin to find out the extent to which Brexit is a gentle stroll along a smooth path to a land of cake and consumption," he said.

In an interview with The Sun last September Mr Johnson, the Foreign Secretary and leading light of the Leave campaign, said of Brexit Britain: "Our policy is having our cake and eating it".

Mr Johnson was referring to his belief that the UK could end EU freedom of movement while also keeping UK trade with the Continent, our biggest export market, as free as before.

The Governor's references to a transition arrangement echoes the call, made earlier at the Mansion House, from the Chancellor, Philip Hammond for "mutually beneficial transitional arrangements to avoid unnecessary disruption and dangerous cliff edges".

This represents a reassertion of the Treasury in Brexit policymaking in the wake of the shock general election result, which deprived the Conservatives of their Parliamentary majority.

Mr Hammond had been sidelined by Downing Street in the campaign and Ms May had resurrected an earlier threat to walk away from the Brexit negotiations with no deal at all - a prospect that fills most business organisations with horror due to the profound shock this would inflict on the economy.

The Governor also said that, in his view, it was not yet the right time to raise interest rates, despite inflation hitting 2.9 per cent in May.

His comments sent sterling down 0.3 per cent against the dollar to $1.2694.

Three out of eight members of the Bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee voted to increase rates from 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent last week, the largest vote for an increase in the cost of borrowing since 2011.
06-20-2017 , 11:37 AM
The strongest argument in the Remain campaign was that it would be chaos for five years. The thing is, that's a vanishing small timeframe in order to have a country that will be around for centuries.

They are still predicting the UK to be richer in 2019 than in 2016 - in fact the projections now are closer to the projections before the referendum assuming a Remain win than they are to the post-referendum projections.

If that is still too much to pay to have your own country then you don't deserve to have one.
06-20-2017 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
The strongest argument in the Remain campaign was that it would be chaos for five years. The thing is, that's a vanishing small timeframe in order to have a country that will be around for centuries.

They are still predicting the UK to be richer in 2019 than in 2016 - in fact the projections now are closer to the projections before the referendum assuming a Remain win than they are to the post-referendum projections.

If that is still too much to pay to have your own country then you don't deserve to have one.
No it wasn't. The strongest argument against Brexit is that it was simply a racist clamour, a two fingers up, a shredding of norms we hold dear, a political land grab by a fringe bunch of lunatics who represent the few and hope to control the many.
06-20-2017 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWillow
No it wasn't. The strongest argument against Brexit is that it was simply a racist clamour, a two fingers up, a shredding of norms we hold dear, a political land grab by a fringe bunch of lunatics who represent the few and hope to control the many.
If the strongest argument is complete nonsense, then we're good right now .

'It must be bad because those people I don't like support it / the opposite is good because those people I like agree with it ' is a cognitive bias - the halo effect, right? That's a 'mistake' in decision making terms, and you'll be quite likely to lose Sklansky bucks.
06-20-2017 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWillow
No it wasn't. The strongest argument against Brexit is that it was simply a racist clamour, a two fingers up, a shredding of norms we hold dear, a political land grab by a fringe bunch of lunatics who represent the few and hope to control the many.
So you voted on the complete future of your country based on personalities you don't like in early 21st century politics?

Reminds me of my reaction to this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by thethethe
Do your favourite brands show how divided Brexit Britain is?

Top 10 brands: Leave voters
HP Sauce
Bisto
ITV News
The Health Lottery
Birds Eye
Iceland
Sky News
Cathedral City
PG Tips
Richmond sausages

Top 10 brands: Remain voters
BBC.co.uk
BBC iPlayer
Instagram
London Underground
Spotify
Airbnb
LinkedIn
Virgin Trains
Twitter
EasyJet
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
The brands thing is interesting. Who would have though Remain voters would have such a taste for the ephemeral.
06-20-2017 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
So you voted on the complete future of your country based on personalities you don't like in early 21st century politics?

Reminds me of my reaction to this:
Yes - I despise the right and their particular brand have personalised Brexit.

Get ****ed - you don't even live in this country.

My grandparents died in WW2 to protect the UK from authoritarianism and I will not sacrifice what they believed in for a ****ing tax cut for people who have no humanity.

I'm an internationalist not a nationalist - hence why I have equal contempt for labour on this matter.

To paraphrase Didier Drogba - it's a ****ing disgrace.
06-21-2017 , 07:11 AM
If your grandparents died defending independence from a non-consensual absorption into Germany, I'm not sure voting EU-remain is the best way to honour that.

The EU's trading environment creating protection for big business vs small business is pretty much a tax cut for people with no humanity, if you must put it that way.

I thought this opinion was note worthy...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/...anging_my_vote.

Quote:
Mark had always been suspicious of the European Union. His grandfather was a Latvian refugee who had fled his homeland when it was annexed by the Soviet Union. “He was always like: ‘Protect your own country and never give in to something bigger,’ because he’d seen his country being absorbed in something bigger without its choice.
06-21-2017 , 07:22 AM
The Soviet Union and the European Union are not comparable.
06-21-2017 , 11:41 AM
It's far from the worst reason I've seen for voting for Brexit...
06-21-2017 , 12:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexdb
If your grandparents died defending independence from a non-consensual absorption into Germany, I'm not sure voting EU-remain is the best way to honour that.

The EU's trading environment creating protection for big business vs small business is pretty much a tax cut for people with no humanity, if you must put it that way.

I thought this opinion was note worthy...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/...anging_my_vote.
in the real world 67% of latvians voted to join the eu, with much of the opposition coming from the more russian friendly minority, and the english voted out because they hated seeing latvian grocery shops popping up around town.

classical liberals against the eu is still by far the dumbest position.
06-21-2017 , 02:09 PM
Anti EU sentiment was strong in the UK long before the free movement issue became a big one. And it comes from the left as well as the right.

We need to find a route to a 2nd referendum and then win it. As we really don't want to stop free movement, we better address those who have other objections - that isn't helped by confusing the two.
06-21-2017 , 02:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWillow
Get ****ed - you don't even live in this country.
True but I am a citizen and may well return one day - though probably outside the 5-year timeframe you think in so I suppose it doesn't count.
06-21-2017 , 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexdb
The EU's trading environment creating protection for big business vs small business is pretty much a tax cut for people with no humanity, if you must put it that way.
What do you think is going to happen in a post Brexit UK, taking into account that the UK were the strongest proponents of neoliberalism in the EU?
06-21-2017 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
True but I am a citizen and may well return one day - though probably outside the 5-year timeframe you think in so I suppose it doesn't count.
I think we can both agree this to and fro isn't going to get us anywhere.

But, at no point have I ever indicated anything about any 5 year time frame. You are impressing upon me a **** argument I have never made.

Brexit will **** this country for ever, until we return to the fold. Amusingly it will **** us in quite imaginative ways people really haven't thought about yet as they are taking the most granted of granteds for granted.
06-21-2017 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWillow

Brexit will **** this country for ever
That is utter nonsense.
06-21-2017 , 05:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
That is utter nonsense.
Probably best to quote a full sentence to have a honest argument.
06-21-2017 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWillow

Brexit will **** this country for ever, until we return to the fold.
That is utter nonsense.
06-21-2017 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
That is utter nonsense.
Yeah, it's not.

Atleast I made you vaguely honest!
06-21-2017 , 06:04 PM
This week there was a article on german news site who gets hitted hardest by Brexit.

Interestingly the regions who depend a lot on jobs of the export industries voted for Brexit and might be the biggest victims in the future. For the first time since the 1970s the UK exported more cars than it imported. About half of them go to the EU. Airbus produces all wings for their civil planes in Wales and delivers them to France and Germany. I doubt that will be the case after a hard Brexit. The other EU nations probably want these potential jobs. Well and businesses only look for profits. If there are tariffs it will hurt them so production might move.

http://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Wen-de...e19893214.html Its in german. Maybe you can translate it if you want to read it.

Quote:
They are still predicting the UK to be richer in 2019 than in 2016 - in fact the projections now are closer to the projections before the referendum assuming a Remain win than they are to the post-referendum projections.
Well thats quite a statement. Even if you only have 0.1% growth you The UK will be richer. But are you even close to that what you what have achieved within the EU?
06-21-2017 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsfan09
Even if you only have 0.1% growth you The UK will be richer. But are you even close to that what you what have achieved within the EU?

A little less money is worth it for democratic accountability.


Still so relieved Blair didn't sign us up for the deutsche mark
06-21-2017 , 06:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueWillow
Yeah, it's not.

Atleast I made you vaguely honest!
You do realise atomic bombs dropped on Japan and that didn't **** them permanently. You think brexit is more devastating than that? Really?


Even the worst economic crises do not **** an individual country permanently.

Think about it a bit.

Last edited by diebitter; 06-21-2017 at 07:00 PM.
06-22-2017 , 03:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
A little less money is worth it for democratic accountability.


Still so relieved Blair didn't sign us up for the deutsche mark
Srsly you can stop with this bull****. Where is your democratic accountability for the Iraq war when you are so hard rooting against taking refugees? You want accountability then help cleaning up the messes you created in the first place. How much reparations did the UK pay for starting a war without UN approval which was against the law of nations?
06-22-2017 , 03:23 AM
Wat? I'm not hard rooting against taking refugees. I have no idea what you're talking about.


None of your points are anything to do with democratic process, more about a sense of justice maybe? You seem confused.

Also, we had democratic accountability. We had the ABILITY to vote Blair out.

The ability to vote someone or some party in or out - one that can make laws, rescind laws and change laws - is what democratic accountability is all about.

Something no one can do in the EU.

If you disagree, please tell me the process by which ordinary people vote in or out the people that frame the laws to be voted on by the EU Parliament?
06-22-2017 , 05:08 AM
By going to a voting booth when their local and EU elections are? Pretty sure you have been told how this works many times in this thread and still come back to the same nonsense. I hope you are working hard to abolish the house of lords.

      
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