Cameron defending his immigration record reminds me of Miliband defending labour's spending policy....

Opposing sides seem to be within a few percentage points of each other, but the market has always had other ideas:

Just cant wait for it to be over.

Is there a big silent majority in favour of IN? Because when anyone opens their mouth (unfortunately much to common, which is why this referendum is AIDS) I would never back that they were going to say an IN supporting statement at 1.37.

Only one reliable poll has shown out to be ahead, ie a ceiling on an average that shows in to be winning.

All the smart money is either long in or hedging out against currency and stock positions.

In people aren't rabid, outers are, and so when people talk about it its always going to be the outers.

Its also much less exciting to talk about retaining the status quo.

Yea, I just really fear der market is wrong on this one, or at least over confident of YES.

Thick people seem to really gravitate strongly to OUT, and there are A LOT of thick people.

Also every newspaper is rabidly OUT apart from the usual lefty suspects and no one reads those.

For all the supposed death of print journalism, newspapers seem to still contain a massive power over the zeitgeist.

iirc the OUTers during the scottish ref were polling well and making a ton of noise, and everyone was like **** this is really gonna happen isnt it. and then then they won like 3 out of 67 wards

might be similar with this one

tho imo much more chance of casual INners just not bothering to vote on this one since EU politics is so goddamn boring

I think Brexit is different to the Independence referendum in that a lot of Scots actually like the UK and feel part of the UK, whereas even the most rampant inners are at least mildly suspicious of Europe. People just don't feel a historical/emotional tie to Europe, although it remains to be seen whether that translates to the ballot box.

It's also highly likely that if Cameron and Corbyn were not the leaders of their respective parties they would be voting out, and more than likely rabidly campaigning out. I think in Corbyn's case especially, he could be doing a lot more than he is - whether that's a lack of conviction, or a tactical decision for the Labour Party to stay peripheral while the Tories are at each other is kind of academic - if he campaigned harder, we would have a lot better chance of remaining in what will be a tight vote.

I'm personally drifting towards remain, although I'm still probably still going to vote out as things stand. I can really see the benefits of both so I'm not so bothered either way, so while I'll definitely vote I'll feel pretty happy with either outcome.

I'm still confident it will be IN but the lack of any positive vision about the EU has long been a major problem and is hitting hard now.

Make it just about the economy (and the lol risk of war) and there's precious little reason to stay. Cameron has been hopeless.

The only "benefits" I've heard from Outers are to to do with sovereignty ie control over your own laws, though this is something of a red herring anyway as they are happy to cede sovereignty to other organisations eg NATO.

Their other arguments all have a xenophobic element which I find reprehensible.

I agree but fundamentally it's about whether or not the EU is a good idea or not. I think it is but if I didn't then what's the point?

The trouble with the IN side of the debate is no one is arguing it's a good idea. It's just some made up baloney about the disaster if we leave.

Was not implying anything, just a statement of fact, the lower someones IQ and level of education the more likely they are to be OUT.

So yea explicitly stating that a lot of OUT voters are thick.

@chez I think that's right. The problem with the in campaign is that it's been left to people who aren't naturally pro Europe to argue for it, and being mainly Tories they focus only on tangible benefits ie the economy.

I managed to convert one person from out to in last week by talking mainly about the exchange of culture between the UK and Europe that began in the 90s, when people who previously had holidayed in the UK were coming back from Europe realising that most of the country being basically shut on Sundays and after 11pm every night was highly abnormal, which helped to bring about the opening up of London and other cities that he and people enjoy now. There were other causes too, but it's hard to imagine the same outcome if we hadn't been part of the EU.

The inners should be talking more about the perils of regressing back to the state of an isolated island.

I think the only person I enjoy hearing speak about IN is John Major. He hardly ever reduces it down to economic reasons, and instead focuses on all the other tangible benefits of the EU. I hope he is part of one of the forthcoming TV debates.

even most people voting for brexit don't think they are going to win

That graphic supports the view that the In campaign's advocates have suffered from complacency.

Really, with most of the economists, large companies and non-emotional arguments firmly on the side of In, they should be romping home in the polls now.

Facts aren't hidden anywhere.

All the good arguments are still on the side of in. Its the electorate's fault.

I think I took someone off the fence onto the side of in earlier this week and she has a PhD. She started with "both sides have so many arguments" and reposted some in and out stuff to Facebook, then I spelled out what the single market is, why European trade is so important and how the FTZ isn't a substitute, how we ratify EU law, why a housing price crash wasn't good (lol this is seriously an out campaign argument, make houses cheaper to buy what could ever go wrong with wiping out much of the wealth of private individuals) and how we have nothing to fear from an evolving culture.

I didn't want to press it but I am sure she was at least nudged towards voting in. But seriously wtf some of those terrible out arguments are self defeating and yet even smart people buy into the bull****.

I don't know what the in campaign could do to have better substantive arguments. Their problem is we don't teach people critical thinking at all.

Its not even about people not knowing things or even being stupid in the classical sense, the problem runs much deeper.

To a large extent the problem is that we've let a large number of working class people suffer from globalisation without any real focus on how to address it (a problem so profound we're seeing Switzerland have a referendum on a no-strings-attached basic income for Pete's sake).

Working class people have see their wages depressed, their kids' school places and NHS wards under pressure and only a select few at the top of the high salary-earning class really benefit. Voting Brexit, regardless of whether it helps them or not, gives them a great chance to give what they see as the neoliberal establishment a thorough bloody nose.

The market Gods have a say:

Investors add Brexit clauses to British property deals before EU vote

Where there is no vision, the people perish….Proverbs 29:18 (KJV)


God thinks this also; you are in excellent company.

Nice to see you have been reading your bible.

I agree that Gove did well enough but he got a far easier ride than Cameron did.

Pound falls on Brexit favouring poll outcomes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...brexit-favored

The Leave side are rolling out the big guns now:

#CHEGXIT

That should be enough to cement Elrazor in the OUT camp.