Time to call it

Leave 42%
Remain 58%

Anyone watch the C4 debate. Mostly terrible but Sheila Hancock injecting a bit of vision into it (even if it was about post war) showed up the remain campaign for just how terrible it has been. She moved the Remain vote up 20% in a few minutes - ok albeit in a strange setting/crowd but still one hell of a response to a bit of vision.

Poor Sandy Shaw.

I did, it appeared to me a fair few of them were drunk. Pretty embarassing

Sheila was indeed the MVP

less than 16 hours to go. The world will soon be watching.

I'm confused, that guy isn't Daryl Hammond in a TRUMP wig?

this guy is actually really good. informing, calm, sober look at the issues. even if you'll never change your vote it's a good listen.

Will listen after I've voted

Did anyone say **** the European Union yet?

I think it will be a bit closer - maybe 46/54. I think the Jo Cox killing and Farage's racist poster will have swayed a lot of undecideds.

In a wider political sense i'll be happier with a remain vote than leave, and remain is almost certainly a big net benefit for me personally.

Great talk that destroys the sovereignty and trade arguments for leaving. Particularly like his point that the UK is one of the Big Three in EU decision-making and law. I always hear Leavers say that we don't have any influence over the EU but Dougan notes that claim is BS.

betting markets vs polls in this election has been one of the stranger stories. remain/leave now 82/18 on betfair and i dont really get why.

Rigged

That's gonna be what the losing side will say.

Been out and Voted at my local polling station I don't like to sound like an prick but from the look of the people I could tell that 90% of them are voting to leave.

I voted to stay of course like any sane minded person who knows they are born would.

There was a big line of people in front of me and you are given a paper ballot with the stay at the top and the leave at the bottom you have to come back to the ballot box and I could see the X marks that 4 people made because they folded it towards me and the cross was visible through the paper, all leaves from old people on a walking sticks or one of them buggies.

Obviously if you voted during working hours you're looking at a very skewed sample of voters. I have to believe that common sense will prevail here.

http://www.nytimes.com/live/eu-refer...zabeth-brexit/

this is hysterical

Why? It seems pretty sensible to most Brits.

daca:

Somebody (facetiously) opined that Betfair (and the others) are rigged. I have no idea why Ladbrokes, Betfair et al. would do such a thing unless (maybe ...) they think leaving the EU would be bad for their business?

I've never understood how sports betting and "setting the odds" works - I don't know what the difference between +900 versus -200 means - but I understand that odds makers who take bets on propositions like Brexit want to "balance" the betting - they don't want the aggregate of bets placed to be lopsided.

Since the polls and the betting markets are so out of alignment on Brexit, could this be one of those rare cases (like the 1969 Super Bowl) where the "experts" are just plain wrong? One things for certain: Somebody's wrong on Brexit. (If the betting sites turn out to be wrong, do they take a bath and lose a lot of money?)

I gather there's a difference between the money staked and the number of bets placed. Most of the money is on Remain, but most of the individual bets are on Leave -- they're just smaller bets. (And they may not represent 'the smart money'.)

the most recent polls have remain slightly ahead + afaik the status quo choice generally outperforms the polls by a handful of points in such referendums = pretty comfortable lead for remain

Private exit polls indicating Remain is going to win reasonably comfortably

Source?

I sincerely hope they're right.

Guardian says Remain is four points ahead. Telegraph claims polls show it's too close to call. Don't think there's an exit poll yet