Plus non-credulous people don't believe it anyway on account of most of it being so obviously made up.

The people who are influenced by it will be those who are doing ok, don't think much about the EU either way and see no point in taking a risk. Keep telling them there's a risk and they can be swayed. That can be a decisive number of people even though they don't make much noise.

Agreed. Would need an overwhelming case for most people to rock the boat who are otherwise comfy

I should clarify I do think the economic argument is working ... My post 2 up is why it's it's perhaps not working so effectively for everyone

If its that obvious you will have no problems citing evidence to back up the claim immigration is suppressing there wages.

Its just someone else made this claim and came up wanting, hopefully you can do better.

Eh?

Apart from one hyperbolic claim by Tusk I have not seen anything that can be close to being just made up.

You just have to look at our currency and its relationship with perceived Brexit risk to see what independent actors think will happen if we Brexit, the consensus is clearly bad things.

Anyone who thinks there is not the potential for major economic fall out from a Brexit is in La La land, this fall out will hurt the WC WAAAAAY MOOOOAH than any alleged benefit from less immigration.

There is a big catch 22 for those S.K. is talking about, to avoid the most severe range of economic outcomes we will have to do a Norway, which means we just end up with the same immigration.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ked-help-elite

There's potential for all sorts of economic thing including a major downside to staying and a major downside to remaining.

So what? No-one really has a clue how it or the on-going financial problems in the Eurozone will play out in the different scenarios. It's almost certainly unknowable.

Chezlaw on point again . This 'you cant predict the future ha fools' Oafk and the remain side have relied heavily on is stupid and it works both ways .

If you want to argue there is more uncertainty and wider extremes short term with brexit than remain then that seems reasonable, particuarly when you narrow it down to just the economic side. To pretend the future of the EU is certain or predictable is madness.

There are far stronger arguments that can be reasonably made than "more uncertainty and wider extremes".

It's the opinion of 90% of 600 economists working in a wide variety of market sectors that "Brexit would hinder Britain’s growth prospects", while "more than 70% said leaving the EU would have a negative impact on growth for up to two decades".

90% of economists say brexit would harm uk

Economist are absolutely hopeless at predicting these things, they don't get better because they agree. It's probably impossible to predict but if it is possible it sure ain't possible yet. Or as someone funnier said "If we killed all the economists and lined up the bodies head to toe then it still wouldn't be enough'

I'm not anti economics at all but any decent economist will admit that it's far too complicated and chaotic to make any useful prediction. Those who don't recognise the complicated & chaotic problem are stupid or playing politics.

If an economist told you a punch in the face would hurt, would you doubt them just because they are an economist?

The point with Brexit is we are dealing with a very quantifiable set of inputs to the economy, this is not a chaotic flux of change, its a very definable set of conditions and thus predictions thereby can be very reliable in this instance.

If you cant rely on economists on this then the most basic concepts of economics must be false, and that is simply not the case.

Leaving being bad is so obvious you hardly need economists to tell you so,just like a punch in the face would hurt.

Also its not just economists.

If Brexit has upside and downside in both direction, the pound would not **** itself every time the polls show Brexit being more likely.

So you are saying its remotely sensible to vote OUT knowing that economic negatives are likely in the short to medium term because there might be some unknown situation in the future which makes long term prospects better.

Voting OUT on that basis is highly dumb unless you are highly confident in the long term gain, which is exactly the thing that is hardest to predict with any confidence.

You realise that we are insulted against most of the major downsides of EU membership by not being in the Euro and not having any obligation for euro zone bail outs?

Probably not.

Chezlaw is hopelessly wrong on this one. As are you with your whole for the working classes fist pump and vote OUT stichk. That argument does not have a leg to stand on.

It is wholly unsurprising people who feel threatened by people who didn't waste the opportunities they had and who are equally capable at their job despite having poor English skills would not be won over by an economics argument.

Stupid people listening to ****ty and easily proven false emotional arguments is the least surprising thing about this referendum.

No of course not. The problem isn't with who they are it's any claim they can predict such complicated/chaotic events in any useful manner. A punch in the face is neither complicated or chaotic.


You may not understand chaos theory very well. The inputs may be quantifiable but they would all have to be precisely quantified far beyond any ability to do so. They are so far from that, that it's a joke to think they can predict this stuff. That would be the case even assuming they had a correct model which I seriously doubt any would even claim to have.

There is nothing at all basic about this apart from it being very basic modeling and prediction theory.

Given your confusion between modelling complex chaotic situations and being punched in the face I'm afraid people who just instinctively realise they are making it up are far closer to being correct than you are.

Leaving a free trade block with which you do 45% of your trade might be bad is about straight forward as it gets in terms of economic prediction, and its exactly that some are disputing this that paints OUT as low brow.

You are horribly over painting the level of complexity. Yes there will be complexity in predicting very specific outcomes, but in a general good/bad sense this could not be an easier prediction for an economist to make.

And of course you are studiously avoiding the wisdom of the crowd, which everyone seems to do in this oh you could not possible predict the very obvious thing debate.

You need very very little complexity when the model is chaotic so the complexity isn't required.

However if you think this isn't complex then I think you are mistaken about that as well.

I wan't ignoring it as much as not addressing it. The crowd seems to be pretty close to don't know doesn't it?

Well the likely trade equilibrium if we are out of the EU is paying "world" rather than "EU" costs on imports and also inputs to industry - but the cost of living decrease from the point of view of the UK consumer would be offset with a lower pound (so there wouldn't be deflation or a trade deficit with the RoW countries we open up to) and we would then be exporting at lower costs than our European competitors in the RoW markets.

I don't know if that's "bad for the economy" because the phrase has about as much meaning as "bad for the poker economy" but it's not generally true that a strong pound is good for everyone in the UK.

I'm not voting anyway. I think it should be up to the people still living in the UK. But personally I would vote leave.

Its not complex from starting principles.

Leaving the EU might be bad because you are leaving a free trade zone with which you do 44% of your trade.

It might be good because ?????????????????

Lol wat, no its utterly clear as OUT = Bad.

From what I've heard there's been at most a small bias to it being bad with a great deal of don't knows. One thing I'd be very happy to agree on is that the wisdom of the crowd is no worse than the 'expert' predictions.

The value of the pound has tanked every time OUT has increased in likely hood and shot up every time it has retreated in likely hood.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...n-camp-leading

No, i am saying for most people where financially all is well who dont give two cahoots about whats happening outside of their own lives... why would they rock the boat? Nice house, steady secure jobs.. why upset the apple cart if you have no interest or views in the world outside of yourself and family for who life is mostly fine? This is the exact view of my family and i imagine a common one.. when i brought up the EU's lack of accountability, our lack of sovereignty, our inability to influence them, the treatment of Greece.. there was a few faux concerned looks but ultimately they do not value these issues and therefore why risk anything?

Yes i am aware we are not part of the Euro. Do i trust the EU? No

Also remind me what the experts of their time said about us joining the Euro? I assume it was an overwhelmingly one sided argument not to join given the disaster it would have been for us...


Ahh thats nice one remain poster mocking me for championing the unskilled and the next remain poster showing his utter contempt and disdain for the unskilled. Shocked i tell you

Pound falling is not necessarily bad for the economy. Depends on many other things even if the dip is because of fears of the consequences of brexit rather than an increase in uncertainty (which is dubious in the first place)

One thing I hope we all agree on is that this is the time for all good men to go down the pub and watch the footie. To be continued ...

Assume better, there was no where even remotely close to the consensus on UK joining the Euro, this is just another total fantasy canard from OUT.

As to the last statement, try reading better.

I am not mocking you for championing the unskilled because that is precisely what you are not doing, I am mocking you for advocating that turkeys vote for Christmas. The last people OUT helps is the unskilled.