Cameron will leave either way. He just goes sooner in an out vote.

Whoever wins the referendum is primed to be leader. Probably either Boris or Osborne.

The party will grudgingly fall in line because there are bigger things at stake and they fundamentally need to respect the result so that's the way it goes.

That's possibly correct although Cameron wont want to go so ignominiously and a lot of big tory beasts will support him because they don't want Boris to be a shoe in. It's also possible that the EU wont want to tango for various reasons.

Saying there no chance of a 2nd referendum (in the unlikely event we vote out) would be a mistake so it's just a question of how likely.

A worthy point. But alas, history not only has chains on people, they conveniently forget the uncomfortable lessons of history and merrily plow on into the future as ignorant as ever. And the politically savvy use this to their advantage, across the political spectrum.

Europe has fragmented more (nation state wise) in the last 15-20 years, and trying to tie the knot back together through only economic means, in a mish-mash way, is doomed to abject failure, or at best a mediocre Band-Aid. Bois Johnson, a classical historian, is perhaps correct. He also writes a mean limerick.

I'm reasonably well versed in the history of the Ottoman Empire but I'm not sure there is any lesson from history here. The world is smaller and our interests are more and more aligned whether we like it or not.

Lots of noise but in reality the reverse is true. Political and financial union is far more advanced than it was 15-20 years ago and there's very little chance the result will be failure.

I think I will call him Boisy from now on. Cameron can be Del Boy and Osborne is a right little plonker. (joke for this side of the pond mostly)

It's possible you are correct chez; however, I have grave doubts that it will turn out as you see it.

The Future is Unwritten - The Clash.

Poor countries have more reasons to leave than UK, yet they just can´t.

Most of the things they say about leaving are around 75% accurate with just a bit of spin coz politics.

Look at the pound right now, its not a prediction, its getting hammered in real time every time brexit looks more likely. Der Market speaks.

If we do actually leave it will tank even worse and there will be real economic pain as a consequence.

Der Market doesn't like uncertainty.. not necessarily a Brexit

Yes short term im sure

It´s good for you UK people that the pound be worthless, you get rid of emigration.

win

Added to this you may get some SNP voters that may see the UK leaving the EU as a way to force a second independence referendum. I think that would be a very small proportion of SNP voters though so it's unlikely to have any sort of impact.

I don't expect it all to be plain sailing whichever route is take. Sitting here in our Safe European Home isn't the answer.

Should I stay or should I go now.

I think Alex Salmond said there would only be another independence referendum if the UK voted leave, but Scotland voted stay, therefore (to their credit) they can't use the referendum to leverage their own agenda.

This is because you blokes recognized the US is your daddy, and you gotta love your daddy.

Thanks for spending those mega bux on our defence.

Don't mention it. We needed you to perfect our music and help tame the bear. A special relationship, indeed!

Thoughts on whether this is impacting or helping boris become leader of tories/pm?
My opinion, regardless of brexit, he has made it pretty tough to win an election even if he does become leader.
His constant ridiculous bile is just not going to fly.

I never thought it would be that devastating a debate card to pull but "China is a less significant trading partner to us than Holland in both imports and exports" is super super effective apparently.

Completely shut down an argument why we don't need the single market that much with the ROW being so important to us.

That we run a trade deficit with the EU is the sophisticated reply to that point. In that if we leave they will want to trade with us as we give them moah dollar than they give us.

So yea, we will keep buying there stuff and they will make it harder for us to sell them our stuff.

Deficit gets bigger LDO.

This referendum is so AIDS.

Just like when Scotland tried to leave, or Los Angeles tried to split. Hire a couple celebrities and load the airwaves with publicly funded propaganda. Maybe even doctor the vote if you have to.

Since British military contracts saved the US from reverting to mud huts and cannibalism in 1939-41 (the British economy didn't really suffer the Second Depression of 1938, but the US economy flatlined, so that, for instance, Packard was going bankrupt until it got the contract to make Rolls-Royce Merlin engines in mid-1940), and since Britain was still subsidising the US economy with war-loan repayments until just a few years ago -- and we only needed the war loans because they'd taken all our gold and dollars in exchange for mostly pretty third-rate military equipment at top-dollar plus 50% prices as a deliberate strategic policy, and Lend-Lease wasn't free either, it all had to be paid for with interest -- and since Britain made free gifts to the US of secrets such as radar and the jet engine (all US radar and jet-engine development, with all that that implies for post-war civil and military aviation, derives from British designs), and since US Eighth and Ninth Air Forces operated from bases built at British expense, and protected by the RAF so they never had to worry about enemy attacks, and since their aircraft even used British-bought petrol... well, it was the least they could do, really.

It's just an anti-immigration thing. Cameron thought he had to promise it to appease the Conservative far-goners and stop UKIP outflanking him on the right, but it was a bad idea, because the anti-immigration thing is a tiger on the loose, and you can't ride a tiger and you'll regret it if you try.

The Leave campaign has been poor so far. They have somehow managed to get drawn into fighting the battle on the Stay campaign's ground (i.e. pretty much everything other than immigration). They need to pull it back to the immigration argument, which is the only reason we are having this referendum.

The live TV debates step up a notch next week with Cameron v Farage, although unfortunately they will not be debating h2h.

Also Gove has been excellent for the Leave campaign - probably the only politician to to enhance their profile during Brexit (albeit from a pretty low starting point).

If he can become leader of the party then he has an excellent shot at being PM.

Reason:

Cameron got a bruising last night on sky and Michael Gove for leave just now did very well. If the main debates go similar in the coming weeks this will be closer than I expected