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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

07-01-2016 , 04:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by _dave_

Isn't the "supreme authority" here the Queen?
No, it's something called the Crown-in-Parliament.
07-01-2016 , 04:41 AM
More info on article 50:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegDat...)577971_EN.pdf
07-01-2016 , 04:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patak32
Do you have info on where this has been proven wrong, seriously interested.
EU immigrants pay a good deal more in taxes than they receive in services and benefits. that's money that'll be spent on other people either as more services (the nhs)or lower taxes/higher benefits.

Quote:
Originally Posted by richdog
You honestly believe that an over supply of workforce does not bring wages down.

As you seem unable to grasp how employment works there seems little value in debating the point.
you just make stuff up and then you complain about others not agreeing with the things you've created out of thin air.

countries of 5 million people dont inherently have twice the wages of countries of 10 million people. every individual worker is both supply and demand, both a substitute and supplement to other workers.

so you cant really conclude anything without spending at least a bit of time examining what actually happens. and when we do that we find that it doesnt really make a difference on wages at all.
07-01-2016 , 04:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plexiq
from your link, it has been discussed and appears "at least doubtful" it can be cancelled without agreement.

Quote:
Some have proposed the use of the Article 50 procedure to force a renegotiation of a Member State's membership of the EU. In this context, the question could be posed as to whether – once a Member State has notified the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the EU, and
a withdrawal agreement has been negotiated – it can, depending on the results of the negotiations, unilaterally revoke its notification and suspend the withdrawal procedure. Most commentators argue that this is impossible or at least doubtful, from a legal point of view.


Indeed Article 50 TEU does not expressly provide for the revocation of a notice of withdrawal and establishes that, once opened, the withdrawal process ends either within two years or later, if this deadline is extended by agreement. Furthermore, it should be noted that the event triggering the withdrawal is the unilateral notification as such and not the agreement between the withdrawing state and the EU. The merely declaratory character of the withdrawal agreement for cancellation of membership derives from the fact that the withdrawal takes place even if an agreement is not concluded
(Article 50(3) TEU).9

This does not mean, however, that the withdrawal process could not be
suspended, if there was mutual agreement between the withdrawing state, the remaining Member States and the EU institutions, rather than a unilateral revocation.10
07-01-2016 , 05:04 AM
If you are afraid of lower wages why not set a minimum wage to prevent that.

If somebody has to compete with unskilled immigrants for his job then he has bigger problems. It might be because of the education system but there are also a lot out there who hated school, who couldn't manage to finish a training or whatever. That's these kind of people you hate against when immigrants aren't in reach. They often decline low-wage jobs because its much better to live of welfare.
07-01-2016 , 05:05 AM
I suspect brexit will turn out to be an unintended giant political rickroll.

UK hold back on article 50 whilst EU goes through turmoil, allows some sort of country-based self-determinism on migration limiting within the EU. UK decides it has changed enough to stay in. This starts with the French Elections, and Poland etc weigh in as the Tories will be doing shafy deals to reassure them Poland will effectively still get access to the UK.

2018-2019 probably as end date.

And Boris will then claim credit.

Last edited by diebitter; 07-01-2016 at 05:35 AM.
07-01-2016 , 05:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FoldnDark
LolZ
07-01-2016 , 06:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
EU immigrants pay a good deal more in taxes than they receive in services and benefits. that's money that'll be spent on other people either as more services (the nhs)or lower taxes/higher benefits.



you just make stuff up and then you complain about others not agreeing with the things you've created out of thin air.

countries of 5 million people dont inherently have twice the wages of countries of 10 million people. every individual worker is both supply and demand, both a substitute and supplement to other workers.

so you cant really conclude anything without spending at least a bit of time examining what actually happens. and when we do that we find that it doesnt really make a difference on wages at all.
Since common sense seems to be lacking I'll make it easy for you.

Average wage 10yrs ago was just under £400 GBP per week - www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wages.

Today it is just over £500 per week.

The value of £390 in 2006 (I'll go a fair bit under £400 to make your case better) is over £525 in today's money.

Real wages are down over the last 10 years. The problem is probably even worse when you take into account the increase in wages for the elite.

Now carry on ignoring reality and convince yourself that unlimited labour has no effect on what people are willing to pay for it.
07-01-2016 , 06:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
EU immigrants pay a good deal more in taxes than they receive in services and benefits. that's money that'll be spent on other people either as more services (the nhs)or lower taxes/higher benefits.
No doubt. It is apparent that in the short term the numbers arriving put an additional strain on the infrastructure in place.

Basically instead of taking the easy option and calling half of Britain racists, I'm saying that governments are at least partly at fault but even then it is not a cake walk to supply enough housing either for example.

**** I don't know what I'm saying, ignore above... racists everywhere
07-01-2016 , 06:10 AM
Lmfao

Spoiler:
07-01-2016 , 06:15 AM
amazing
07-01-2016 , 06:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by richdog
Since common sense seems to be lacking I'll make it easy for you.

Average wage 10yrs ago was just under £400 GBP per week - www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/wages.

Today it is just over £500 per week.

The value of £390 in 2006 (I'll go a fair bit under £400 to make your case better) is over £525 in today's money.

Real wages are down over the last 10 years. The problem is probably even worse when you take into account the increase in wages for the elite.

Now carry on ignoring reality and convince yourself that unlimited labour has no effect on what people are willing to pay for it.
What the trend in the 8 years from 2000-2008 then the trend 2008-2016?

Then ask what happened in 2008.



Do you think there was no immigration 2000-2008?
07-01-2016 , 06:22 AM
Politico: How Britain Stays In The EU

http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...-the-eu-214005

This is an interesting article, but there may be a complication that the author has not taken into account. According to an earlier post in this thread posted by chezlaw

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=3689

all this speculation may be moot as Article 50 may already have been [legally] invoked and the 2-year clock may already be ticking. I suppose the first order of business, which should be ascertained PDQ, is a definitive ruling as to whether or not Article 50 has been invoked and whether or not the clock is running.

If Article 50 was "legally" invoked as a result of the June 23rd referendum, (meaning that Britain is now in the formal process of exiting), that should light a fire under the backsides of MPs and the "new" PM - whoever he (or she) turns out to be. Also, the author of this Politico piece was a bit disingenuous in asserting that the "Leave" campaign was misleading and told numerous mistruths. The simple fact is that both sides were equally guilty of that crime.

Last edited by Alan C. Lawhon; 07-01-2016 at 06:28 AM.
07-01-2016 , 06:29 AM
I would dispute it was a fact and pretty 100% certain its not a simple fact.
07-01-2016 , 06:31 AM
team goveboris had 60% PM equity yesterday on betfair, now 5%. they were going to be PM and chancellor

well played lads

theresa may must've been laughing her tits off while watching the student debating society firebomb itself
07-01-2016 , 06:35 AM
re is the article 50 clock is ticking, if the EU bods pursue that line it'll only be oh lets say about 15 years until the argument get settled in the courts

probably buy us more time than we could ever hope for otherwise
07-01-2016 , 06:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patak32
No doubt. It is apparent that in the short term the numbers arriving put an additional strain on the infrastructure in place.

Basically instead of taking the easy option and calling half of Britain racists, I'm saying that governments are at least partly at fault but even then it is not a cake walk to supply enough housing either for example.

**** I don't know what I'm saying, ignore above... racists everywhere
Mass immigration is without doubt a net benefit to an economy. The problem is that the benefit is often concentrated at the top and it can be a negative to some segments of society. The answer though isn't to try and shut down the borders it's to redistribute the benefits more evenly. Instead of punching down against people just trying to improve their lives (and contributing greatly to the countries overall wealth in the process) the people should be punching up against the rich who have appropriated the benefits of immigration and insulated themselves against any negatives. More progressive taxation and a basic universal income is a clear solution to spread the benefits of immigration around the whole economy.
07-01-2016 , 06:51 AM
Another legal view on canceling after invoking http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpo...nd-referendum/

Quote:
The second issue is whether this is possible from the perspective of the Article 50 TEU (above). Here, things are a little more opaque. On a literal interpretation of the Article, it does not seem to provide for the suspension of the withdrawal process, but the CJEU has never tied itself to an exclusively literal approach to the European Treaties. Instead, as former CJEU Advocate General and retired Irish Supreme Court judge, Nial Fennelly, explains:

The characteristic element in the Court’s interpretative method is … [the] “teleological” approach, … that it is necessary to consider “the spirit, the general scheme and the wording,” supplemented later by consideration of “the system and objectives of the Treaty.” In more recent years, the idea of “context” has been added, and the prevailing wording, varying minimally from case to case, has been that it is necessary when interpreting a provision of Community law to consider “not only its wording, but also the context in which it occurs and the objects of the rules of which it is a part.”

I suspect that the CJEU would, on this basis, be able to find that the Article 50 process could be suspended or abandoned, but I would not wish to predict whether it would do so. It is a Court often noted for its realpolitik and pragmatism, but there are limits to how far it can or will go to accommodate political agreements. It might perhaps be asked for an advisory opinion on the issue. If the CJEU finds that suspension or abandonment of the Article 50 process is possible, if a second Brexit referendum were to be in favour of remain, if Parliament therefore indicated its intention not to ratify the withdrawal agreement, if the UK government consequently sought the suspension or abandonment of the Article 50 process, and if the other Member States – via the European Council – agreed, then the Article 50 process could be suspended or abandoned.

If suspension or abandonment is not possible, then the issue will turn on Article 50, paragraph 2 (above), which provides that the EU Treaties cease to apply to the departing Member State in two circumstances: either on the entry into force of the withdrawal agreement, or two years after Member State notifies the EU that it wished to begin negotiations for withdrawal “unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period”. If a second Brexit referendum were to be in favour of remain, and Parliament therefore indicates its intention not to ratify the withdrawal agreement, the first alternative in Article 50 paragraph 2 is satisfied, and the withdrawal agreement would not come into force on that ground.

More complications arise under the second alternative, by which the withdrawal seems automatic after two years “unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period”. So, the question is: could some form of words be agreed “to extend this period”indefinitely? And even if so, would the CJEU uphold it? Again, I would not wish to predict whether it would, and it might again be asked for an advisory opinion on the issue.

Rather less susceptible to a successful challenge would be a form words that clove more closely to Article 50 and did not expressly say that it would extend the period “indefinitely”. Instead, it might provide that the period would be extended until a withdrawal agreement enters into force. That could – and, in practice, probably would – amount to an indefinite extension, but it would be much closer to the spirit of Article 50, and well within the linguistic flexibility that has been shown in Treaty negotiations in the past. As before, I would not wish to predict whether the CJEU would uphold such a formulation, and an agreement to this effect might form the basis on which it could be asked for an advisory opinion on the issue. If the CJEU approves a form of words by which automatic withdrawal would be postponed until a withdrawal agreement enters into force, if a second Brexit referendum were to be in favour of remain, if Parliament therefore indicated its intention not to ratify the withdrawal agreement, if the UK government consequently sought the postponement of automatic withdrawal until a withdrawal agreement enters into force, and if the other Member States – via the European Council – agreed, then the second alternative in Article 50 paragraph 2 is satisfied, and the withdrawal agreement would not come into force on that ground.

I am even less clear on this EU issue than I am on the UK constitutional issue above, and I equally welcome comments as to whether this is legally possible. I leave the question of whether this is likely to the politicians.

Let us therefore assume that the UK would negotiate a withdrawal agreement pursuant to Article 50, and put it to the people in a referendum. Let us further assume that the result in that referendum is in favour of remain, such that the withdrawal agreement is rejected, and Parliament therefore declines to ratify that agreement and bring into force. In such circumstances, my question is this: could the UK rely on an agreement with the other Member States – via the European Council – either that the Article 50 process would be suspended or abandoned, or that any automatic withdrawal would be postponed until a withdrawal agreement enters into force? In either case, the result would be that the Article 50 process would have provided route, via a second Brexit referendum, to ensuring that the UK would not have left the EU. Time may well tell. Meanwhile, answers on a postcard …
So that's all clear then.

(About the Author: Eoin O’Dell is a Fellow and Associate Professor at the School of Law, Trinity College Dublin.)
07-01-2016 , 06:55 AM
Lot of articles about turning over a referendum. Standard EU tactic, but would it wash this time?
07-01-2016 , 07:13 AM
Could we get into the gloriously ridiculous position of a legal challenge to the UK courts to prove that an act of parliament is required to invoke while at the same time a legal challenge is being made to the EU courts to prove we have already invoked? What if they both succeed?
07-01-2016 , 07:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
Could we get into the gloriously ridiculous position of a legal challenge to the UK courts to prove that an act of parliament is required to invoke while at the same time a legal challenge is being made to the EU courts to prove we have already invoked? What if they both succeed?
07-01-2016 , 07:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomdemaine
Mass immigration is without doubt a net benefit to an economy. The problem is that the benefit is often concentrated at the top and it can be a negative to some segments of society. The answer though isn't to try and shut down the borders it's to redistribute the benefits more evenly. Instead of punching down against people just trying to improve their lives (and contributing greatly to the countries overall wealth in the process) the people should be punching up against the rich who have appropriated the benefits of immigration and insulated themselves against any negatives. More progressive taxation and a basic universal income is a clear solution to spread the benefits of immigration around the whole economy.
that would explain why >50% voted leave, while only ~5% of the UK population is unemployed.
07-01-2016 , 07:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
Could we get into the gloriously ridiculous position of a legal challenge to the UK courts to prove that an act of parliament is required to invoke while at the same time a legal challenge is being made to the EU courts to prove we have already invoked? What if they both succeed?
EU wins

Bloody Brussels
07-01-2016 , 07:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnotherMakiaveli
that would explain why >50% voted leave, while only ~5% of the UK population is unemployed.
Obviously there's a very large racist/xenophobic element also. Millions of racists is definitely the case.
07-01-2016 , 07:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
Could we get into the gloriously ridiculous position of a legal challenge to the UK courts to prove that an act of parliament is required to invoke while at the same time a legal challenge is being made to the EU courts to prove we have already invoked? What if they both succeed?
chez:

Here's a fascinating post I just read examining the likelihood of a new Prime Minister calling a snap election.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpo...exit-election/

      
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