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Brexit Referendum Brexit Referendum

06-14-2016 , 01:10 PM
Tom Watson calling for eu free movement reform . Labour are all at sea. The remain campaigns hearts just aren't in it and it shows
06-14-2016 , 04:48 PM
I thought this was a reasonable article;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...d-nothing-els/
06-14-2016 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Except we spend £100bn more on goods than we export.

Should the EU decide to put tariffs on our exports, we'll just respond by putting the same one on their imports.

Given that the discrepancy is heavily in our favour, the most likely outcome is no tariffs either way, as that's in everyone's favour.
Lol tariffs on what we buy hurts us, not them.

"You want to hurt us, well guess what we can hurt us too!"

We also can't enter a trade war with Europe whilst negotiating entry to the FTZ. It kinda doesn't look good.
06-15-2016 , 02:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
Lol tariffs on what we buy hurts us, not them.

"You want to hurt us, well guess what we can hurt us too!"
Lol that obviously works both ways.....

All tariff scenarios do nothing to help anyone. That's why in the cold light of day, when the EU accepts we are no longer in the EU, I suspect there won't be any.
06-15-2016 , 02:59 AM
Why then do you imagine that customs duty is payable when importing goods from anywhere then?

Or specifically why do people in Norway and Switzerland have to pay duty when importing goods from the EU?
06-15-2016 , 03:28 AM
06-15-2016 , 03:34 AM
Again as Elrazor keeps ignoring, no single country in the EU will suffer having 44% of their exports impacted as they are absorbing any impact to trade with the UK across several economies.

Germany has 1.4T of exports, the political need to make sure leaving the EU has consequences will easily trump any economic imperatives.
06-15-2016 , 04:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
no single country in the EU will suffer having 44% of their exports
Except the EU doesn't export anything. The EU doesn't manufacture anything either.

It's companies that export - they will be the ones hit, which will have a knock on effect for the countries economy.

I doubt Romania care much if BMW don't sell as many cars in the UK as they are too expensive.

BTW, there is a special Question Time tonight at 6:45, presumably shoehorned into a weird slot so it doesn't clash with the football. Good to see the UK has it's priorities right
06-15-2016 , 04:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
there will be negative short/mid term economic consequences and highly likely long term consequences.
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Germany has 1.4T of exports, the political need to make sure leaving the EU has consequences will easily trump any economic imperatives.
You present your arguments as if they are statements of absolute FACT.

They are not. If opinion was equivocal on Brexit, there would be no debate.

There are obviously valid arguments on both sides. The economic arguments for staying are stronger, but repeating them ad nauseum won't convince anyone who wasn't convinced 6 months ago.
06-15-2016 , 04:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Germany has 1.4T of exports, the political need to make sure leaving the EU has consequences will easily trump any economic imperatives.
The politics of all this are not clear. I expect a lot of effort to prevent Brexit but it's very hard to predict which way the political sentiment will go in Germany if that fails.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36526839 has some stuff on the view/politics in Germany.

First glimmer of attempting to prevent Brexit appears:

Quote:
Juergen Hardt, the party's foreign policy spokesman, offered an intriguing glimpse into how Berlin may be preparing for Brexit.

If the UK votes to leave, Mr Hardt said, then the EU should gauge possible action to prevent a British exit from becoming a reality. Brussels shouldn't close the door right away.
06-15-2016 , 05:02 AM
Tory MPs won't pass budget to mitigate brexit induced financial crisis

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7082841.html

What a utter shower of filth. Happy to cheer on cuts to the incomes of the disabled, but will refuse to accept the consequences of their own actions.
06-15-2016 , 05:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Except the EU doesn't export anything. The EU doesn't manufacture anything either.

It's companies that export - they will be the ones hit, which will have a knock on effect for the countries economy.

I doubt Romania care much if BMW don't sell as many cars in the UK as they are too expensive.

BTW, there is a special Question Time tonight at 6:45, presumably shoehorned into a weird slot so it doesn't clash with the football. Good to see the UK has it's priorities right
Germany is the biggest depositor to the EU. So where do you think the money comes from? Its from taxes. To collect taxes somebody has to make a profit and people have to earn money. And this money is distributed over all the different EU programs.

The problem is that every nation and its people think their success belongs to them. But thats wrong if you want to have an EU or going even further in the future. You can't combine all the heavy industries in one place and have the rest fight for the breadcrumbs. Lots of people were in favour of Greece leaving the EU to get their **** in order. Ofc they have a problem with a very generous apparatus of state which has to be solved. But would leaving the EU or the Euro solve anything? Correct me if I am wrong but they dont have any important industry which can compete on the world market. Greece is good for tourism and probably some other areas. In the end you have to even it out over Europe to make the EU work. Ofc you would need the same conditions in every country and not having them compete with lower taxes and stuff. At the end it would probably lead to Germans and British people having a little less but other countries having a higher standard of living. If it doesn't equalise over time you will always have problems with acceptance among your people.

There are problems like limited resources, climate change and overpopulation ahead of us which cant be solved if everyone is on its own. Other research ares like space programmes are so expensive that we can only manage them together.

Its always been that way that major problems will be connected with immigration. The real reason for all problems count their money and laugh their asses of.

Last edited by Habsfan09; 06-15-2016 at 05:23 AM.
06-15-2016 , 05:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor

It's companies that export - they will be the ones hit, which will have a knock on effect for the countries economy.
mutual tariffs reduce GDP. The per capita GDP reduction in Europe will be miniscule, in the UK it will be significant.
06-15-2016 , 06:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by davmcg
mutual tariffs reduce GDP. The per capita GDP reduction in Europe will be miniscule, in the UK it will be significant.
Exactly.
06-15-2016 , 06:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Except the EU doesn't export anything. The EU doesn't manufacture anything either.

It's companies that export - they will be the ones hit, which will have a knock on effect for the countries economy.
Yea well duh!

Why are you even saying this? it does not effect anything I am saying.

You seem to have no grasp over even the basic foundations of this argument so are pointing out simple truisms as some kind of gotcha, when they are things just assumed as known.

The whole point is that no single economy in the EU will be hit as hard as the single economy of the UK, thus the EU has a lot more leverage in any trade negotiations and thus the freedom to let political motivations trump political ones.

The only relevant thing that comes from your observation is that politicians will make the final decision on any trade deal, not companies.
06-15-2016 , 06:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yakmelk
I thought this was a reasonable article;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...d-nothing-els/
This Brexit business is interesting, but as an American I have one very important question: Where are the Page 3 girls?
06-15-2016 , 06:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
You present your arguments as if they are statements of absolute FACT.

They are not. If opinion was equivocal on Brexit, there would be no debate.
.
Whilst its not a fact as such, the statement that Brexit will cause economic damage in the short to medium term can be said with a very very high degree of confidence and the same can be said about the EU having more freedom to let political consideration take precedent over political ones.

This confidence comes from an understanding of actual facts, something you clearly lack.

Also this is mass politics, things that are actual facts get debated all the time in an unequivocal way as the masses have a very limited understanding of actual facts.
06-15-2016 , 06:28 AM
maybe slightl
Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
and nobody cares about too positive stories about technocratic eu stuff (or about immigrants doing alright) so there's no market for it. but natural or not that still amounts to a systemic anti-eu bias.
there's a boat thing today that ties in well with this. the eu fishing policy has been a massive succes. not only did it end overfishing, but there are now both more fish in the oceans and caught every year, and they're talking about getting close to the optimal level. all because cooperation and technocratic governance is really good at ending tragedy of the commons type problems. but nobody cares so it might not even have made the papers. instead angry fishermen are going to make headlines.

Last edited by daca; 06-15-2016 at 06:46 AM. Reason: maybe that's slightly too optimistic. there are still problems. but it's not far off.
06-15-2016 , 07:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutch101
There is only one party in Holland that really wants to leave the EU. If they decide to form a government after the next elections then they might be able to get a referendum. However they won't be able to make it a binding referendum so the result will be irrelevant except for talking points for the next election.
Unless there's some uniquely Dutch requirement to have a referendum (I obviously don't have any expertise on Dutch constituational requirements), you don't need to have a referendum to leave the EU. Any national government just needs to notify the EU that they're leaving.
06-15-2016 , 08:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan C. Lawhon
This Brexit business is interesting, but as an American I have one very important question: Where are the Page 3 girls?
The EU made The Sun turn page 3 off

Brexit= bringing our tits back

Last edited by Doctor Zeus; 06-15-2016 at 08:14 AM.
06-15-2016 , 08:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Except the EU doesn't export anything. The EU doesn't manufacture anything either.

It's companies that export - they will be the ones hit, which will have a knock on effect for the countries economy.

I doubt Romania care much if BMW don't sell as many cars in the UK as they are too expensive.

BTW, there is a special Question Time tonight at 6:45, presumably shoehorned into a weird slot so it doesn't clash with the football. Good to see the UK has it's priorities right
you expect the bbc not to show the football?
06-15-2016 , 09:03 AM
Only nine days to the Apocalypse: Time to gird up your loins.


Brexit-what-to-expect-first-100-days-if-Britain-votes-to-leave-EU
06-15-2016 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
This confidence comes from an understanding of actual facts, something you clearly lack.
Lol so you completely misrepresent opinion as FACT, admit it, then accuse me of not understanding facts.....
06-15-2016 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Lol so you completely misrepresent opinion as FACT, admit it, then accuse me of not understanding facts.....
No I admitted to firmly stating some opinions that I have very very high confidence of being correct, the whole omg you state it like facts is just more of your floundering derpitude up there with, but it is deh compannieees.
06-16-2016 , 03:17 AM
People who use Norway as the basis for arguing that the UK wouldn't suffer from Brexit need to read this: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...t-norway-uk-eu.

This isn't the Guardian being the Guardian either, it's a well-established point that free movement of people being inextricably linked with free movement of goods/services. Further, having to accept EU law without exerting any influence over it seems like madness.

      
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