WHAT WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE UK REFERENDUM ON EU MEMBERSHIP BE?


ODDS FROM BOVADA.LV

UK STAY IN EU -450

UK TO LEAVE EU +275

THOUGHTS??

I DON'T KNOW

NO U

There's a small chance we will vote to leave.

and a much smaller chance we will leave.

where does the "vote to leave but not actually leave" equity come from?

Standard EU practice is to have another referendum if they don't like the result of the first one.

With all the political forces strongly on the side of the UK staying, it's very likely a leave vote will be followed by big talks followed by a new deal (designed expressly to get an 'In' vote but not much else). Then we vote again.

Gotcha. Should they leave? I know nothing about this issue. I'm guessing it's just xenophobic ****?

I'm in the 'stay' camp 100% but I'm an extremist who wants us to join the Euro, have far more political union and see Turkey become a member.

There's definitely lots of racism/xenophobia/Nationalism in the leave camp (immigration is a huge issue) but some have reasonable concerns about the EU which is far from perfect to put it mildly. There's a lack of accountability, huge bureaucracy and the disastrous looking economic situation.

Don't think there will be a second vote if there is a no vote. But we will never find out as they will vote to stay.

Even a Turkey under Erdogan?

Of course. Even Turkey under the Ottoman's:

Ottoman-Empire


Europe is just one big happy family.

hope they do and go bad as ****.

#arrogantbrits

yes big issue. people doing ****ty jobs that the brits never in their worst dreams would do.

brits are in south park mode

they took our jerbs

lol

Well, I work in risk management within investment banking but (to give an extreme example) would happily scrub toilets for a living if they paid me £100,000 per hour to do so. So would you I daresay, the issue is at what price the Brits are willing to do those jobs at. If no-one is willing to scrub toilets for £7 per hour then yes, we'd need to pay prospective toilet cleaners a higher wage until we attract enough of them. That's pretty much how supply and demand in the labour market works.

Besides, isn't it slightly contradictory to on the one say 'they-do-the-jobs-we-don't-want-to-do' and then argue that they aren't taking opportunities from the local Brits when mass immigration drives the cost of labour down?

I'm voting to stay in, but the hard fact of life is that some people do lose out from globalisation. Its no surprise that they kick out at the EU.

I get your point. But, still...

Maybe could be bad for rich countries because that; but the UE as it stands it´s bad for others too.

UK don´t have the currency the €, that´s good and smart move, have control over that.

Other poor countries in UE suffer from inflation, and they can´t control the currency ofc... so they emigrate. Maybe without the UE they would not need to go to other countries like UK.

Just saying.

My place prices double when we change to € and salaries stay the same...

1€ values very differently in the UE, and that´s a big problem because some economies can´t keep up with.

My country is poor, but without the € it was just fine, better. Now like 1€ it´s nothing. All **** costs 1€ here or france or germany, but the salary's are very different. What we can do ? Nothing.

And the regulations, directives, lost of sovereignty, lost of central bank ( to control currency) etc.

So... it´s not only the UK that´s suffering from this. I guess it´s the country that suffers less.

As i said most of emigrants in UK from UE without the € would never need to leave their countries in the first place.

And... we have same problem and we are poor, some people come here to do **** we don´t do here... but do in Switzerland or UK. So, it´s a fair game.

We prefer to clean toilets in Switzerland than here, so...other imigrants do that here... here noone do that or construction, just desk jobs. 1st opportunity they emigrate and most for Switzerland, not UK.

The reasons for wanting to leave.
The left: It's a capitalist rich mans club
The Right: It's a socialist union (+ to much immigration from Freedom of movement around the EU)

They both will agree on lost sovereignty though.

In the last vote in 1975 most of the support for leave was from the left (i.e Jeremy Corbyn) now its a flipped position where most support for leave comes from the right.

The result will be to remain. The UK government have spent tax payers cash on a big propaganda campaign and are spewing lots of scary lies about what will happen if we leave

The leaders of the two main parties are also voting remain along with Barack Obamamars

Mainly but I'd say that the odds there is a vote to leave and it's not honoured much much smaller than chezlaw is suggesting. Like the leaders of the stay campaign have all but ruled out a second referendum in the event the vote is to leave.

One very good argument against holding another vote is that it would split the governing party in two given the strong strand of euro scepticism running through the right.

Whatever the chances of a 2nd referendum they sure ain't reduced by them ruling out a 2nd referendum which is the most worthless of political promises.

If anything the fact they have to make such a promises just indicates how likely it is that people think there might well be one and reflects the concern people who want a better deal to stay in might vote out.

The Tories are ripped apart if the vote is out anyway. Cameron's only chance of avoiding total ignominy is to find a deal and he will still be the boss.

No they actually are reduced chezlaw but I wouldn't expect you to understand why.

Probably not but he is a mere mortal. Turkey should have been embraced when everything was moving in the right direction. Now it's mostly going the other way but imo we should be working hard to turn it back around.

It was, imo, the greatest lost political opportunity of my lifetime.

We have to look to the future not the past.

They really aren't. Worthless promises change nothing - the fact they are given may tell you something about the situation but they don't change the reality.

You cold argue that even worthless promises can take on a life of their own but it will be so trivial to say something like 'something radically new is on the table so we have a duty to consider it' that it's irrelevant here. It wont even have to be something radically new - just something that can be called 'radically new' - this of course had to be the case even without the promise.

All other things being equal rank these situations from most to least likely to have a second vote.

Stay Campaign admits there is a chance to hold another referendum
Stay Campaign says nothing
Stay Campaign explicitly rules out another referendum

Now I expect you to hand wave this away and suggest that explicitly ruling out a second vote doesn't move the needle at all. There will be no way for us to resolve this disagreement given the irrationality of your view and so in anticipation of the impasse to come I'm done with this.

lol okay dereds. You carry on being done with it mate.

Easy game for politicians when people believe them even when it's so obviously just a case of 'he would say that wouldn't he'.

The funny thing is we give up a lot more sovereignty to even less democratic accountable organisations than the eu and no one cares.

NATO is a prime example of this.