The Conservative Brexit policy in a general election under PM Boris Johnson is what?

Leave. Maybe following an attempt at a hard line renegotiation of the WA with the EU which the EU will be furiously blamed for refusing.

It's not clear that would happen. Boris might prefer to bank a few years as PM and not call a GE. That's bad enough but who knows how it plays out or what follows if we haven't already resolved brexit.

or something else

To put it simply. The tories are ****ed at the moment. Parliament has the numbers to stop a no deal at the moment.

Do not risk changing this until brexit is resolved.

Re. Boris & his constituency: as you may have noticed I'm obsessed with the electoral commission's new boundaries which parliament is yet to pass. This will reduce the number of seats from 650 to 600 and more accurately reflect the population of the UK than the current constituencies which are based on outdated census data and greatly over-represents certain parts of the UK. The new boundaries are significantly favourable to the Conservatives so you'd think passing them would be a #1 priority before another general election.

So why haven't they done so? Well, Brexit is taking up lots of parliamentary time for one. Parliamentary arithmetic too (opposition parties will block in an act of blatant "gerrymandering"). But you'd expect the DUP to vote for any new boundaries that make it harder for a literal IRA fanboy to become PM, so there's a majority.

Well .... the trouble comes from individual Tory MPs who don't want to lose their seats. For example, what happens to Uxbridge & South Ruislip currently represented by one Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson? It becomes Uxbridge & Northolt and that's not good news for old Boris. Would Boris vote for something that made it harder to win re-election even if it greatly boosted the Conservative party's chances? Not willingly. Wouldn't put it past him to vote for it and engineer a move to a safer seat but the chances of five to ten Tory ERG style rebels winnowing their party's chances of winning the next election for purely selfish reasons & boosting the chances of putting a literal Stalinist in no. 10 is quite high. Passing the new boundaries will be a big fight.

Hyperbolic nationalist appeals+demonising of the EU to the leave base and attempts to circumvent democracy using populist rhetoric to deliver a no deal brexit. Negative outcomes of which will all be attributed to nasty EU+Soros.

People think May is bad, but an actual cynical careerist **** in charge would be a million times worse.

The tard brexit tories have one shot, one opportunity to lose everything we have...

If they get May out they need to agree with labour to campaign a general election based on a second referendum and each party choose to set out the choice as part of the campaign to give a mandate - and they choose either leave with no deal or renegotiate from scratch.

Its super goofy, but maximises their position given they have nothing right now. The legal position as far as I can see,let alone the most likely, is that we can't even leave on no deal, a thing that won't ever change under the current paradigm, so it's going to end Norway style soft exit or no exit at all.

Labour would snap agree with this as they hold the dominant part of this deal right now, but the true losers are the remain tories and the fence sitting labours.

Btw if polls have it right the eu elections are going to kill off the last remnants of a no deal mandate, which other polling shows doesn't exist in the country and never did.

This is why they are so strongly against democracy happening in the eu parliament elections.

Wondering why we haven't heard from diebitter and the other no deal idiots with evidence that contradicts this.

Yougov says:



I'm not sure I followed the conversation above properly though, because I can't understand the basis for what Phill is saying.

I'm only seeing 29% there explicitly pro no deal.

Clearly anti no deal are all Libs, Greens, CUK and SNP which adds up to 29% too, so when you factor in the Labour and Tory voters there's clearly no majority in favour of no deal in that poll.

Both the big party manifestos were some form of 'brexit means brexit' so taking that as a vote against is quite a stretch.

There's a plurality explicitly for leaving, and a big majority for leave parties in general. It's impossible to infer a contradiction of no-deal from that.

YouGov poll today:



Brexit Party now 4/5 favs to become the largest party:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...ons-most-seats

I'm not saying that 25-30% is a mandate for no deal, but if they can mobilise a party from nothing to become the biggest party while advocating for no deal, you could certainly make an argument for a mandate.

holy ****

The stretch is all yours eg the majority of Labour voters are remainers. Voting for a party doesn't imply support for each and every one of their policies.

Deeply scary stuff.

I suppose we can hope that many who say they support the brexit party in a poll are the same people who are counted in the tory/labour hard leave brigade.

I'm not saying it supports no deal though - just that it is not support for remain or WA. Anything else is a creative interpretation of varying degrees.

There was some mileage in the observation that a hard brexit and the damage done would just stoke the underlying issues of brexit populism.

However having the issue of Brexit hang around like this,dominating the irrational and emotional hysteria of the tardulation and reducing politics to this one issue in their small minds is also highly damaging to political culture in this country, which is being dragged more and more down the gutter every day Brexit is basically Thanosing the agenda.

If we remain, it just gives the tardulation prophets and manipulators an even greater voice and reason to exist.

Am really begining to entertain the thought that we should just leave ASAP so this whole issue and those that make hay from it, can be exercised from our political environment.

It's easy to start thinking that way and it's an argument with some force. But it doesn't big end if we leave with a no deal and reaching this stage has been the main hope of the remain camp - now we have to follow through and win this key battle.

A fairly loose poker analogy for caving is working hard to induce a bluff and the folding to it.

Maybe it does not "big" end if we hard brexit, it certainly does not if we remain, the legacy of which your post and poker analogy completely ignores.

Sorry 'begin to end'

but you missed the point.Once we lost the referendum there was no fix that would bring this to an end. The best* we could do was try to engineer something like the current situation and then try to remain (or leave very softly at worse). Having achieved the very situation we've tried so had to engineer then giving up would be like folding after trying to induce a bluff.

*not quite true because ideally a leader would have emerged and much more of a engagement with leavers rather than the 'stupid racists' approach.

Leaving removes leaving as an issue, so far none of your posts have engaged with this.

Remaining creates a political football that political reprobates will be kicking for years, sure if we left there would still be reprobates, but they would not have a one ring to rule them all issue.

Leaving doesn't end the issue at all. It's just the beginning. It might shut Farage up but I wouldn't even bet on that for very long

Leaving doesn't remove the football. It just changes which side is winning to the wrong side. It would be different in calmer times internationally, and if the UK wasn't so fundamentally split.

More like working hard to induce a bluff then realising that your opponent is the same guy you've played before who rarely bluffs.

I'm still pro-remain but OAFK's concerns about how, if leaving is finally rejected, we deal with the political and social fall out are real and sizeable.

People who will still vote to leave even after everything that's known about how corrupt the campaign was, how there won't be shed loads of extra cash for the NHS and how no deal would be terrible for the UK in many critical ways instead of doing the sensible thing and re-evaluating in the light of more information will still want to stick it to those they see as the establishment (and foreigners too of course) instead of the actual establishment.

It's as though they're demanding the pointlessness of leaving be demonstrated to them by actually leaving, because nobody in authority can be trusted to tell the truth.

Yes we know the causes of their unhappiness and yes we need a government capable of addressing them but preaching from an ivory tower about how we should engage with a sizeable number of disaffected communities to persuade them to vote for a party who they have felt let down by for generations doesn't hold as much water as you think.

(On a related note I'm going to be in Stoke, Brexit capital of the UK, over this weekend and it's hard to imagine a more forlorn Western city with ridiculous levels of anti-social behaviour and alcohol and drug addiction.)