If you're a Brexitard, I don't care what you do and I don't care if you live or die, although my preference would be for the second option named.

A typical Brexiter hypocrite seeking the security of the EU, just as my Northern Irish work "mate" Brexiter applying for an Irish passport is.

I voted remain pal. Thanks for wishing death upon me though. I suppose when brexit happens death is inevitable anyway.

Once again voted remain. I know this is a testing time for you now so I apologise for making a joke about this very serious situation.

What exactly did I say that implied I voted out?

To Slovakia and they started building that plant in 2015. Those jobs (and Ellesmere Port) are IMHO going under any scenario including revoking Art 50.

Weird how we have this mind-meld that lets you know when I am being deliberately disingenous.

It's true that the old-style EEC had opponents, but if you think it wouldn't have easily won the 2016 referendum then you're wrong (or perhaps deliberately disingenuous).

The PMs who moved away from that (by integrating without referenda) are the architects of the present situation.

Don't have you on ignore, in fact I'd never noticed you replying or mentioning my name on here. I'm on 2+2 far less than I used to be so I don't even keep up to speed with most of the threads I've posted on, the Brexit thread especially as it's just the same old thing over and over again (a bit like the Donald Trump one)

The double think in the pound value discussion is amazing.

Firstly, there were plenty of leave talking heads who tried to deny the pound would drop or any drop would be transient on a Leave vote. For good reason.

If the pound drops this is a sign that those putting their money where their mouth is in regard Brexit are literally betting its bad for the UK economy. Looking at the value of the pound they think its pretty bad, project fear though amirite?

I may be misunderstanding this but one of the reason the pound dropped after the original brexit vote was because people had been hedging on the side of remain being the winning vote which given the information was the correct decision but ultimately turned out to be incorrect.

And I literally don't see anyone suggesting that what is happening now is good for the UK hence why anything May does will not get voted through. Even if she got the perfect backstop agreement no one cares and still thinks the deal is bad. People suggesting no deal are saying no deal is better than what is being offered, very few (if any) are suggesting no deal is optimal. Even if you just add in a degree of uncertainty to a pound that doesn't drop in value the pound would go down in value due to risk taking implications, doesn't mean it isn't profitable.

Then you have to factor in time, short term losses are nothing if you actually do negotiate better deals with the rest of the world and the EU however none of those things can happen (or don't seem to be at least) until brexit is dealt with. Which I think is ultimately wrong and should be one of the pressure points we have as an advantage. I Suppose that's one of the many reasons the current deal is so bad.

Eh?

It dropped because people sold it, thats the most simple answer. Why did they sell, because they dont want to be holding Sterling going forward.

You are confusing yourself. You dont hedge against the most likely outcome.

When people thought that the vote as going to be remain based on all the information we had the pound was actually up. It was the fact that the people betting on the pound made the wrong decisions that caused the drop in the pound.

If the most likely outcome was brexit the pound would have recovered over the time of the vote only to drop if remain won.

What you want to be comparing is in which scenario does the pound do better and I imagine a remain win in a predicted remain win is what does that. But you need a comparison as to why the pound going up or down is bad. Down isn't automatically bad nor is up necessarily good, short term at least.

The pound can drop simply because the market movers know the bank of england thinks brexit will be bad/risky and will take measures to mitigate the expected badness/risk.

Also, knowing that the currency will drop on news is a totally different order of problem to predicting how the economy will develop over time. It's a bit like like the difference between predicting people will carry more umbrellas if the forecast says rain vs predicting the rainfall years ahead.

Oh well, at least we still have some sense of humour left

Hint: Its not short term.

Also the entire post above is word pie.

Some of the expected price drop on leave was priced in before the vote, of course. Not enough, but the level it fell to was not in anyway exaggerated by this lack of pricing, that is just not how it works. You got a steeper crash, but if leave had been better anticipated the difference is that the pound is weaker before the vote (as a higher % of any drop is priced in) not after.

1. Yea the currency can move on an interest rate expectation, but still, one has to be assuming that things will be bad so IRs will change. Given how low IRs are, there is not actually that much room for IR movement predictions to move values.

2. You are confusing our perspective with the perspective of a currency trader. We are looking at value of pound as an after action data point. A currency trader is looking at value of pound as his job and risk exposure etc.

Never mind. I deserve the idiot. The UK veto for rebate changes is still in place.

It's not just interest rates but even there the expectation may well have been for more rate rises then we have had with the BofE holding back because they are worried about brexit.

No I'm not confusing it that way. The point was that even you and I can confidently predict the direction the pound will move in on major brexit events - it's pretty trivial to predict. The idea we can predict what the pound will be worth against the $ in 5 years time is a joke. Economic experts might do slightly better than us but it would be marginal.

Interesting article (or first half of it, anyway)

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...w-deal-britain

Expectation about IRs dont drive the pound to sub 1.30. To be even in that territory there have to be other negative expectations.

Yes, you are still making the same confusion, your second paragraph is just pointing out a no **** sherlock (again) not shedding any light on anything.

Interestingly, the trend line in the Pound over the last 5 years is absolutely clear and show the market/wisdom of the crowd doing a fairly effective job of pricing in what they view to be an approaching economic shock.

Agreed. What we sometimes call 'printing money' would be another.

I'm not disagreeing btw that some of it is about risk.


Any confusion is not on my part. There is minimal, if any light to be shed on such future positions - that's the point. Whereas what's happening now is indeed no **** sherlock. Totally different order of problem.

Well May turned up and got sweet FA from EU.

Apparently she turned up asking for help, but without firm proposals, so not surprising.

This deal is ****ed.

Without this deal parliament can do nothing. They can't revoke art 50 and they are ridiculously terrified of no deal


So after this unnecessarily protracted time till we get this failed vote, ref 2 looking most likely.

If deal fails, it should really be no deal vs remain on the sheet imo


However, it's seriously looking like anything could happen.

Personally I hope May resigns after deal fails and leaver becomes leader, but that's highly unlikely.

Sigh.

The last time there was a sell off of the pound similar to the one we see now was in 2008/9

I guess all those traders were incorrect about the effect of the credit crunch on the UK economy over the next 5 years.

Again, its nothing about the value of the pound in 5 years after a sell off.

If you look at substantial sell offs of sterling, in a vacuum, as an event in itself, they are a very solid indicator that ****s gonna be bad in the medium term.

Yes - nothing of any note at all from the EU. Frankly embarrassing for the UK to go begging like that. We should have a competent and firm negotiator who can state the deal as it stands is unacceptable and we will be leaving on WTO terms with no payments at all unless it is altered.

We can only hope so, although I also have faith that Parliament will not even come close to letting it pass. The BBC has been operating at a high level of propaganda in the last few days doing everything it can to keep Theresa May in power and help this deal go through. Quite sickening.

Interestingly Craig Oliver, who is a strong supporter of Theresa May and was David Cameron's Director of comms (at the top of the remain campaign in 2016) is now very high up at BBC News. https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100

I think May's plan is to terrify parliament so much at the prospect of no deal that they vote to sign away our sovereignty. I think both the DUP and ERG are more competent and resolute than to allow that to happen however. They can still bring a vote of no confidence.

Agreed, although I doubt she will ever resign. Too desperate to cling onto power.

As a compromise if we had the ability to terminate the backstop unilaterally ourselves and spill out into a "no deal" scenario then I think as a compromise the deal would pass. It would have to be legally watertight and written into the actual treaty.

Sigh, so we in fact agree that it's nothing to do with the longer term predictions. No surprise as how things will develop over time is too difficult a problem even for the experts to do much better than guessing.

In the shorter term, all I'm pointing out is that in part it's a reaction to how the BofE react to what the BofE considers to be bad news.

Yanis is always a good read.

lol Yanis, he should probably try and fix Greece that he and his mate contributed to digging further into its already massive hole first.