That's just your opinion.

I'm far more ok with pooling sovereignty to the EU than to Nato.

You can make a lot of money if you're that confident of a no deal. Some sort of deal is still favorite imo

I'm not very convinced by the EU wants to punish the UK line.There's bound to be a small element who think that but on the whole they're more sophisticated than that. A chaotic no deal brexit is a serious threat to the EU which is facing enough problems without risking another big economic hit.

They would also much rather keep the UK close as at some point the UK will be perceived to be doing well by the anti-EU forces. The pain of leaving will be history fading in memory and it's always much easier to follow where others have gone. If instead, we are still in the EU orbit then what's the point?

So now May is becoming the guy who gets obsessed and the EU had to issue a restraining order.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...alzburg-ambush

A credible plan for Brexit that's acceptable to Brexiters and the EU doesn't exist.

It's really quite simple.

The British people, Brexiters included, need the free movement of goods (and probably services) and other forms of economic cooperation (common fishery for example). The EU will not grant such a thing without UK basically agreeing to all of EU's regulations and becoming a de-facto non-voting member of EU or at least the customs union.

A deal will be reached. It will be Brexit Lite and/or a punt to extend the deadline.

Congratulations Brexiters. You got nothing and now you got even less say in the regulations that will govern your daily lives. GJGE.

Not true.

What date they releasing the blue passports?

Oh yeah. Forgot about that.

The question is can May control her party to vote either of those deals through. I've no idea and don't particularly care to learn more about the Tory party MPs, but the votes so far seem to be remainer Tories threatening but always falling into line, and the hard line brexit muppets successfully holding out and making May change her mind. Hopefully it's different when the crunch comes, and one of the more amusing spectacles is how hard non-May Tories brick it when it looks like they might have to step up and lead things rather than complaining from the sidelines, but I really don't want the Country's future decided by that shower.

Hey as someone who comes from a country that is relevant in the 21st century, it is hilarious every time you losers bump this thread as if Brexit or non-Brexit means something. You're all afterthoughts, for NATO, for the EU, for the Commonwealth, for literally anything. Nobody who is in anyway important really gives a **** what you useless ***** do.

This is it, in a nutshell. Those that lead Brexit simply did not understand the EU.

I don't think it's punishing per se but the EU aren't going to be big on UK expectations either as bottom line they chose to go so don't have much in the way of a position or leg to stand on ultimately in the overall scheme of things as they're going to be left worse off than better, when they go.

The UK being in the EU's orbit could be seen as an attempt to have one's cake & eat it, which could be an incentive for other nation states to consider leaving, long as they stay in orbit which is a big no-no for the EU. So they're gonna play hardball as a disincentive for other states potentially thinking of leaving, even if ideally they'd rather the UK remain or at least remain close. Eu asked nobody to leave so they're not going to "pander" (if you will) to other nations imo or engage in anything that can be seen as significantly conciliatory toward any nation that leaves, such as the UK.

The trouble is the idea that anti-EU forces will be put off by the EU making life difficult for the UK. If anything, the reverse is more likely to be true.

The hard line anti-EU forces will be the ones most pushing the idea that some of the subsequent problems for the EU and the UK are because of the EU wanting to punish the UK for leaving. The fact that many moderates also find it a partly compelling narrative is a real potential headache for the EU.

Tories should have appointed a Brexiter to negotiate Brexit. Now we're faced with the prospect of a referendum where a Prime Minister who thinks Brexit will make Britain worse off argues for a deal and a hard-Brexit LOTO who can't wait to leave the EU argues to say. The former of which makes another referendum less likely - how can May campaign on a deal everyone knows she thinks will make us worse off? It's not credible. Far better if Gove or whoever negotiated a deal which he could then fall or stand on. Call another referendum (if necessary), argue his case, resign if he lost.

As for what will happen I have no idea. I don't see any way out of it other than a fudge which kicks the big Brexit issues down the road.

It's quite likely I think that something will be kicked into the long grass for a while, at least until momentum has gathered behind the idea of a final referendum.

The big problem with this though, as my wife is finding out, is that many businesses have simply stopped recruiting and are waiting to see what the final shape of Brexit will be before committing themselves to jobs or investments.

We can't keep carrying on like this, in limbo. The Brexit idea is already a disaster in the making.

Is the bolded even a realistic possibility though? I've barely paid attention lately but I thought i remembered reading somewhere that there would not be another referendum as long as May is PM.

That's what she says, but a week (let alone six months) is a long time in politics, especially in these turbulent times. If she wants a trade deal it's quite likely she may have to back down on at least one thing shes's promised.

Meanwhile Betfair has the UK still being in the EU after 29/3/19 at only 2.5 (6/4 in old money).

There's some chance May will play the referendum card at some point (lol at the idea that she wont because she said she wouldn't) but it's more likely that parliament forces a referendum after she has resigned/ousted or foists it on her just before she resigns.

The fixed term parliament changes brought in by the coalition may prove to be one of the most important changes in UK constitutional history.

And even if there is a decisive referendum, the turkeys could still vote for Christmas again.

Heh I got confused there cos that's the expression I use for remainers who vote remain without really understanding the EU's agenda. (or worse, accepting it exists but denying it will ever progress)

LOL at ze EU anyway. They treat the marginal win for pro EU candidates against clear far right fascists as a vindication instead of a warning.... And remainers want to keep these people in charge of all our fates?

Er, who are the turkeys again?

We can easily lose. Especially as there still a lack of a political leaders giving them any good reason to stay. Very few will be bullied or scared into voting to remain. Still, there's the demographic change and some sign that there's been a swing to remain among the rest.

Much will depend on the options and the EU. If for example remain is a nice clear simple option then it will do better than if it's unclear how it works. Also the EU can sweeten the pot by at least giving the leave camp some words that make them feel like they have been listened to.

Who are in for worse economic times once they leave an economic trading bloc? UK won't fare well by leaving either way you cut it & that's the bottom line despite all the passionate talk about sovereignty & controlling our way of life & unelected cliques in Brussels yaddayadda so within that context it's not the EU who will look like turkeys anyway, I'm sorry to say. You guys are in for some rough times & you have my well wishes. Personally I'd like to see you get a second referendum even though you're against it personally. I think remaining will be better for you as a whole. I think a lot of Brexiteers are acting out of some emotive & rather outdated sense of Nationalism, ultimately to go with the sense of feeling disenfranchised. As I said earlier pride going before a fall. Again you guys have my well wishes & good luck.

Tories couldn't do that because the Brexiters wanted nothing to do with Brexit.

Give it time, there's going to be more and more Europeans feeling more and more disenfranchised by the EU. The writing's on the wall, and it's happening all across many of the member states of the EU, and will almost certainly continue to increase.

Or do you think that's a fantasy?

Not the feelings of disenfranchisement but if by that you mean will it lead to the collapse of the Eu, Yeah I do think that's fantasy tbh as other countries will be worse off for leaving. That's not to say you won't get an increase in populism but the actual EU institution will survive such things imo as such mindsets/trends come along every 20 years or so, even if it seems somewhat more potent today.

Things are uncertain enough for everyone these days so I doubt if majority of other EU nations will be willing to rock boats any more. I'll be surprised if the five stars last a full term in Italy for example, considering Italy's past track record with governments & populist movements tend to fade in time anyway. Trading blocs last longer. They'll last longer than the likes of the current Hungarian government, Salvini Ukip et al especially with so much self interest at stake for its members which will be more beneficial than leaving.

But that said people will indeed continue to feel more marginalised imo as the gap between the haves/have nots inexorably continues to widen and then, well que sera sera when things eventually come to a head one way or the other.

One of the rules of being a member of Schengen is guarding the external borders to prevent irregular crossings - internal EU border checks can only be removed if the external ones are reliable. This is the policy that was agreed in the 90s and that Hungary and other countries signed up for about 10 years ago.

The views in western countries (at least of politicians and journalists, it's not so clear to what extent it includes ordinary citizens) have changed radically in recent years. Apart from the Schengen treaty, we could give the UK example that as recently as 2010 we had the Lib Dems in a UK election advocating for the same points system as Boris Johnson now wants.

What seems to be in fashion now is a physical trial based system where people with the physical ability, funds to pay people smugglers and appetite for risk to their lives and for breaking the laws necessary to get to the west are prioritised over people submitting applications in embassies elsewhere. Of course given that's the view now, it seems Hungary is being unsporting by preventing crossings outside of normal crossing points.

If Hungary and other Eastern European members are supposed to just "get the memo" and forget the treaties based on whatever is in fashion in the west at the particular moment then they'll never feel like proper members - particularly when 1st class members like Spain escape censure for human rights abuses.

Yes, but this applies to the countries that want treaty change, not the ones implementing existing agreements.

You mean Merkel deciding she doesn't like Schengen because she wants to pick refugees who complete the physical trial rather than e.g. issuing visas in German embassies overseas and letting people book flights on easyjet?

So are the fences and other Hungarian policies not working in your opinion then? Are large numbers of people still coming via the Balkan route?

That's the first class members, who have far more infringements that just get ignored.

http://ec.europa.eu/atwork/applying-...&submit=Search

For example there are 76 infringement cases for breaches of EU rules open against Germany compared to just 52 against Hungary.

There are 97 against Spain, 78 against Greece, 70 against Austria, 65 against Italy, 61 against France, compared to just 50 against Slovakia, 69 against Czech Rep and Poland, 45 against Croatia and only 25 against Estonia.

However Germany will never ever be disciplined by the EU.

The V4 countries will leave if the transfers of finance ever stop unless there is a real change of attitudes in the west before then.

If the fence was agreed on & supported by the EU then your question was/is pointless & moot with all due respect.

If it wasn't then my comments stand.
I haven't given it any thought as I don't really care about the issue as I'm not Hungarian or migrant so it doesn't affect me. Therefore I'm unable to answer your question. Nor do I really care whether it's "working" or not due to not being Hungarian or a migrant.

Haven't a scooby doo mate. Possible & even probable do you mind telling me the ultimate point of your post? You seem to be leading to something is all bringing the Germans into things & whatnot. So what exactly precisely specifically is on your mind & is the Hungarian fence thingy merely mentioned in order to segue into something else, some deeper broader point possibly?