Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
These polls that say the UK would now vote remain cos its 52% remain and 48% in the latest 1000 person poll seem to have forgotten what the polls were saying just before the actual referendum, arent they...
The trend is clearly going one way though. Before last year's general election it was near impossible to find a reliable poll indicating a remain preference. That is no longer the case. There's some obfuscation because the question is never quite the same, but polling is indicating a noticeable shift in attitude amongst the electorate as it becomes clearer that Brexiteer promises on how negotiations would pan out are exposed for folly.
This is now becoming an issue of time, more than argument. We will inevitably* reach a point where polling solidly indicates a significant cross sectional majority for remain / noBrexit in some form. What is unlikely is that we will reach it quick enough for MPs to feel confident in beating the drum for another vote against the wishes of their leaders. Brexiteers are where they need to be, no deal achieves their aims and they simply need to retain the current status quo and path through to March of next year and time expires.
*I say inevitably because I don't see any significant shift in the tenor of negotiations, economic forecasting or performance of the pound between now and March. As those trends go, so will the changing preferences of the non core Brexiteer electorate. That and deaths of older voters every month which weaken the Brexiteer base of the electorate. Brexiteers complain that the negotiations prove the EU as the big bad vindictive wolves they painted them as before the referendum; but the middle part of the electorate don't care. They'll just see the major facts and rationally move away from Leave as something they support.