I understand this but I think its a little more subtle than that. This was the Treasuries 'best case' from a set of scenarios which were much worse (implying it is the upper limit), and 'project fear' as well as the swathe of new middle class self-appointed economics experts portrayed this effectively as fact, called people idiots is they disputed it, etc.

There is nuance in the £350m figure too - that is the gross obligation, and given general trends in the EU, we can assume they had a target to get the lot in future, meaning it was on the table as a cost.

I think the treasury and the government and the remain campaign had as much duty to explain that the unemployment forecast was a speculative best guess with little hope of being accurate in their marketing communications (and there's nothing wrong with disputing it), as the leave campaign has of being clear about gross vs net on their bus. Particularly as one is the actual government and the other is just a campaign group with no real power or responsibility.

At the very least, those who are capable of righteous indignation about the bus ought to be capable of understanding this nuance throughout all the arguments of both sides of the campaign. They do not like to have that pointed out though.

It's not just net-vs-gross, the UK wasn't even paying £350m gross. After the UK rebate, the gross figure was something like £250m. And from that, about £115m comes back to the UK, so we are talking about roughly £135m net. There is simply no way you can argue in an honest way that leaving the EU will free up £350m/week for the NHS instead of paying it "to Brussels".

You are being naive here if you think this is in any way comparable to getting a forecast wrong. Especially when the assumptions of that forecast changed very significantly (delayed triggering A50, significant rate cut).

Ok we can agree to disagree about whether the gross vs net is comparable. But it is not fair to say the forecast assumptions changed; if those things were not considered as scenarios in the model (the BoE doing its only job!), the forecaster has failed badly.

David Cameron explicitly claimed during the campaign that they would trigger A50 on the day after the vote, the delay was completely unexpected. (BoE decision is debatable, yes.)

And again, it's not just net-vs-gross: £350m is the unrebated gross account, the UK was never going to pay that full amount. You would be stretching it by using the rebated gross amount of £250m, but there is really no justification for using £350m.

The £350 million was complete horse-****. The implication was that this was the net gain, in that this much "extra" money could be spent on the NHS. It's not just a net V gross issue, it's that leaving the EU means that costs are incurred elsewhere and there is actually less to spend on the NHS unless changes are made elsewhere. Everyone should agree with this, with the only question being whether the cost is worth it.

To be fair they probably should have factored in Cameron being a lying weasel given the fact that he is in fact a lying weasel.

Dude can we please move on from this whole 'experts are devious and deliberately trying to place their finger on the scales'.

It's just people trying to do their best, and unsurprisingly as we aren't omniscient errors will occur. Due to the fact that people are trying to work these sorts of forecasting problems out we will get better at it.

Pulling a figure out your arse isn't ever going to help and you get a false reinforcement when the clock is broken at the right point.

It's classic 1st level vs 3rd level thinking, as a poker forum I'm slightly surprised this isn't more prominently known.

Nothing would stop you driving across the open border, but the Dublin butchers would stand to lose their livelihoods if they were found to have sold hooky gear, since they would still be under EU law. The problem, in the event of a hypothetical trade deal bringing toxic US chlorinated chicken and hormone-injected beef to the UK market, would be fairly obvious and inspectors would be on to it.

The only advantage of selling those toxic US products in Britain would be that they'd be cheaper, but if you were selling chicken and beef that cheap in the RoI it'd be fairly obvious something was up. So it wouldn't be cheaper, there'd just be a bigger profit for the butcher (along with the risk of prosecution), but only if he was sold the stuff cheaper. And, if it's sold cheap by the smuggler, what's the point of smuggling it across the border?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a8116811.html

US service men fired a few rounds off this morning on a RAF base used exclusively by the US air force.

There's your sovereignty right there.

Yes, this clearly wouldn't have happened if the vote had been to remain

I didn't say that.

You've a lot to say about sovereignty but I've yet to read 1 word from you on why it's bad to have another country's military based all over your country. It just doesn't register with you.

As far as I'm aware that is US territory smack bang in the middle of England.

Exiting NATO when brexit is done?

I'll worry about it when they are control government business.


You really have no perspective, do you.

RAF Mildenhall had cash operated petrol pumps decades ago - one of the greatest reliefs I've ever felt when stuck in the middle of the night with only fumes and a severely sunburnt passenger. They can stay forever as far as I'm concerned. On the other hand, whoever was working for the Thetford police that night can **** off.

Apologies for derailing this rather strange derail.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...l-city-bosses/

Bend over folks.

And here I was thinking there must be a sinister motive, somewhere; surely they can’t be this dumb. Nope, in fact the brexiters are indeed just assuming they’ll get to have their cake and eat it. This is becoming farcical to the point of comedy.

These matters are covered by the NATO Status of Forces Agreement and by the Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Defence Police and the US Visiting Forces.

No, the only (nominal) US territory in England is the US Embassy. US bases in England are not sovereign, as British bases in Cyprus are.

So the MOD have oversight on the CIA bases?

I seriously doubt it.

The CIA don't have 'bases' in England, except at the US Embassy. They do, however, have a base in Ireland, at Shannon, which was used as a transit point for 'extraordinary renditions' when all that was going on. Shannon is so totally a US sovereign area that you can actually clear US immigration there. (It's quite convenient for that purpose.) In CIA language Ireland is called 'Airstrip One', after the sarcastic name given to Britain in Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four.

US bases in Britain are all legally RAF airfields under British control and jurisdiction, the US presence being defined by the Visiting Forces Act, the Memorandum of Understanding and the NATO agreement. Be aware that, when the Obama administration was contingency-planning for an air strike on Iran, and they wanted to use British bases at Fairford, Akrotiri and Diego Garcia, the British told them they couldn't because the proposed action was illegal, and the Americans had to call the whole thing off.

Who can and who can't use guns nothing to do with government.........




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Eh, there is no US base in the Republic of Ireland, whether at Shannon or elsewhere. US Military planes land and take-off at the commercial airport, after being cleared to do so, but there is no base!

You can clear US Immigration in Shannon (and Dublin), as you can from a large number of airports located outside of the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...r_preclearance (coming soon to Heathrow apparently!)

This and the denial of the CIA bases in England make his post completely redundant.

All about the perspective though.

Apparently we should be sucking up to Russia according to BJ. It’s amazing how in step they are becoming with trump, in what must be a staggering coincidence.

£500 mill on new passports lol! That’s a week and a half of nhs money as per brexiteers.