Brett Kavanaugh - Interest & Discussion - Page 354 - Politics and Economics

Are you saying that a judge will never deny cert if there is a chance he would vote to overturn a lower court decision? If you are not saying that then you are agreeing with my original analysis.

12-12-2018 , 10:34 PM

#8827

grizy

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Justices deny cert to wait for their preferred fact patterns all the time.

In Kavanaugh's case though, I think he'd deny cert on anything abortion until people forget about his name... judging by Thomas, that's probably next year.

But he'll probably keep playing it safe and wait until Trump is out of office.

12-13-2018 , 12:09 PM

#8828

d10

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Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

Are you saying that a judge will never deny cert if there is a chance he would vote to overturn a lower court decision? If you are not saying that then you are agreeing with my original analysis.

It's kind of ironic you're denying the Bayesian analysis implicit in jman's assertion. Hint: it can still be true that ~100% of cases that are denied cert would be affirmed if heard by the SC while also true that this specific, not randomly selected case has ~0 correlation between cert vote and decision vote.

12-14-2018 , 02:38 AM

#8829

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,073

Quote:

Originally Posted by d10

I never referenced this case. I referenced a post that was written because of this case. The post said that denying cert did not necessarily imply that the decision would be upheld. Which was essentially the same as I said earlier.

It is not logically impossible that all denied certs would be upheld. But given that so few circuit decisions are given a full review by the SC, mainly because they don't have the time, and given they overturn 80% of those they review, it is inconceivable that they wouldn't overturn a decent number of cases they don't review. This specific case was not part of my argument.

12-14-2018 , 03:58 AM

#8830

simplicitus

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https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/stat...708099072?s=19

12-14-2018 , 01:49 PM

#8831

hobbes9324

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,872

Kind of meh, though. I think I'm registered as GOP, but I vote dem 90+% of the time. I can't remember if they had the option to declare yourself neither when I first registered to vote in Nevada - it was decades ago, before the GOP went full ******

MM MD

12-14-2018 , 02:10 PM

#8832

3fiveofdiamonds

adept

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 964

Quote:

Originally Posted by hobbes9324

you can register no party, or a couple of other options but you can only vote in the primaries or caucuses of a party you are registered to.

12-14-2018 , 02:16 PM

#8833

hobbes9324

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,872

Yeah, on further review I think I'm no party. My mailings for the primaries generally let me vote for dogcatcher stuff.

MM MD

12-14-2018 , 03:54 PM

#8834

kerowo

lolcat

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 37,190

Quote:

Originally Posted by hobbes9324

You aren't one of the highest ranking judges in your state are you?

12-14-2018 , 05:25 PM

#8835

hobbes9324

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,872

I am not, and have never been a judge, ranking or otherwise. Although I did put ones hip back in last year.

MM MD

12-14-2018 , 07:28 PM

#8836

kerowo

lolcat

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 37,190

So perhaps you changing parties isn't as newsworthy as the Chief Justice of California's Supreme Court doing it?

12-14-2018 , 07:57 PM

#8837

bigt2k4

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I dunno, I had heard of hobbes before and not some guy who's name I would have to scroll back up to find out what it was(the judge)

12-17-2018 , 06:28 PM

#8838

Huehuecoyotl

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I'm glad that two of our Supreme Court justices when to this perfectly normal institution. The article was about sexual abuse by priests at the school among other things.

12-17-2018 , 07:00 PM

#8839

goofyballer

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Quote:

Up at the bar, one of the wives asks her husband what he wants to drink. “An Artois,” he snaps at her.

Is he talking about...Stella Artois?

Who in the **** says "an Artois"? If America knew about this **** before the confirmation hearings, that these DC ****heads go to the bar and order an "Artois", Kavanaugh would have been dumped immediately.

12-17-2018 , 07:05 PM

#8840

All-In Flynn

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Yeah, you order that beer by doing Brando in Streetcar or you drink something else, imo.

12-17-2018 , 07:08 PM

#8841

BOIDS

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Spoiler:

12-17-2018 , 07:25 PM

#8842

goofyballer

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These ****ing scumbags (from Vanity Fair article)

Quote:

When asked today how the school handled the allegation of sexual abuse, Prep seemed unable to get its story straight. Initially, a spokesman for the school insisted that “from the moment it was brought to our attention,” Prep officials “immediately reported the incident to law enforcement and the Maryland Province of the Society of Jesuits.” In fact, the school’s own documentation demonstrates that Prep did not report the matter to police until May 2004—seven months after school officials learned of Ruyak’s accusation. (Schools in Maryland are required by law to report suspected abuse within 48 hours.) When Vanity Fair pointed out the discrepancy, Prep changed its story, claiming that it held off involving law enforcement at the insistence of Ruyak’s parents. Eric’s father, Robert, calls that claim “categorically false.” The Ruyaks say they wound up going to the police themselves—an assertion supported by Father Eck—and discovered that the school had not contacted the authorities.

I imagine the publication of this article is related to, also today, Maryland Jesuits naming priests credibly accused of sexual abuse, including the priest in the VF article:

Quote:

Five Jesuits identified in the Maryland Province’s report at one time were associated with Georgetown Preparatory School in Montgomery County. Md. Gary Orr, a Jesuit who worked at Georgetown Prep from 1977 to 1980 and from 1989 to 2004, was reported by school authorities to police after the accusations were made in 2003. He was sentenced to five years of supervised probation after he pled guilty in 2011 to two counts of sexual offense. Orr, who left the Jesuits, is a registered sex offender.

12-18-2018 , 06:26 PM

#8843

wheatrich

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Nobody is above the law

unless you're SCOTUS, the president, everyone who's rich or ever served in the white house or congress, etc.

Judges get to rule that judges are above the law, what a country we have.

12-19-2018 , 11:39 AM

#8844

iamnotawerewolf

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Quote:

Both chambers had a Democratic majority.

12-19-2018 , 12:16 PM

#8845

kerowo

lolcat

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 37,190

Probably didn't want to add another avenue for removing a judge from the bench other than the constitutional impeachment route.

And I'm not sure prior judicial misconduct would have been enough to do anything but give him a slap on the wrist anyway. How do you remove a SCOTUS for something they did before they got put on the bench?

12-19-2018 , 12:26 PM

#8846

All-In Flynn

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kerowo

And I'm not sure prior judicial misconduct would have been enough to do anything but give him a slap on the wrist anyway. How do you remove a SCOTUS for something they did before they got put on the bench?

I know what you mean, but I'm imagining Giuliani on FNC all "Brett Kavanaugh murdered those Girl Scouts before his appointment! There's just no way it can be used against him!"

12-19-2018 , 02:34 PM

#8847

kerowo

lolcat

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 37,190

Quote:

Originally Posted by All-In Flynn

I know what you mean, but I'm imagining Giuliani on FNC all "Brett Kavanaugh murdered those Girl Scouts before his appointment! There's just no way it can be used against him!"

LOL, I had the same kind of thought writing it and deleted the "...that's what the confirmation hearings are for." end of the post.

12-19-2018 , 03:29 PM

#8848

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 99,984

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/pol...221170485.html

Quote:

KANSAS CITY
It was late September and 10,000 people in a basketball arena in southwestern Missouri were screaming Brett Kavanaugh’s name.

Josh Hawley backed away from the podium as the wave of sound hit. He could feel the stage shaking.

“KA-VA-NAUGH, KA-VA-NAUGH, KA-VA-NAUGH!”

The 38-year-old Republican Senate candidate turned to President Donald Trump, who stood by his side in the packed JQH arena at Missouri State University in Springfield.

“Wow,” Hawley said.

“Wow,” Trump said back.

Hawley’s campaign manager, Kyle Plotkin, was standing in the back of the rally, near the TV cameras and journalists, thinking to himself that he’d never seen anything like this before in Republican politics.

It was like a rock concert. The wild energy of the crowd, the deafening volume.

“This is significant,” Plotkin thought to himself.

For the first time in a bitterly fought campaign, Plotkin felt it in his bones: Claire McCaskill was done.

This is such a depressing read. And no I don't think McCaskill wins w/o the Kavanaugh hearings, but maybe it's closer. She as about to lose to Todd Akin until he got all rape-sciency.

04-05-2019 , 02:40 PM

#8849

iamnotawerewolf

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Empirical SCOTUS: Is Kavanaugh as conservative as expected?

[Kavanaugh] voted with Breyer more often than with Gorsuch or Thomas. He voted with Gorsuch in 80.95 percent of his votes, which is the same frequency of voting alignment he shared with Kagan.

04-05-2019 , 02:48 PM

#8850

dth123451

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Wake me up when he votes against rich people or white people or white collar defendants or tax cheats or obviously corrupt presidents. Zero credit given for voting different than Thomas on meaningless procedural stuff.

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