Regardless this will never be proven one way or the other. The only way is if more women come forward. Otherwise it’s one person’s statement against another. This is why I’m calling for him to withdraw because this will just be a useless 2 week dog and pony show that serves no purpose. I don’t think at this point anyone’s vote would change. Those who now are unsure will vote no, those who aren’t changed by this will still vote as they would have 5 days ago.

This doesn't really seem like 4d chess, but rather basic maneuvering. Why would you play your best card before the hearings, when you know 1) the majority are not even considering the nominee in good faith and 2) they know about the story and have a strategy to tear it down in the confirmation hearings. People who even entertain the idea that Feinstein was trying to bury this for... reasons??... are basically just being blinded by their hatred of her. Having the story come out as a "September surprise" is more likely to derail the nomination and more likely to hurt the GOP in the midterms. In theory, the only downside is that Feinstein is fairly transparently suppressing a credible allegation of an attempted rape for partisan advantage, but somehow it's the Democrats who are mad at her for it, which is a bit of a twist.

Why would he withdraw if no one's votes are going to change? He had the votes to be confirmed before this came out, so by your logic... I imagine most people would be willing to endure a two week dog and pony show if it got them a seat on the Supreme Court that they had spent their entire professional life angling for.

I meant change after yesterday. As of yesterday several GOP reps now said they wouldn’t vote yes so I don’t think I would put myself through this only to be voted down at this point. I also think Trump is going to try and force him to withdraw as to slam Barrett through before November

Do you think that's what's going on in this particular case?

I read 538's analysis of possible outcomes and was reminded that McConnell was strongly against Kavanaugh in the first place. That may come into play here, if he thinks he can angle for Barrett/Kethledge as a replacement. McConnell is not dumb, as we all know.

This is the correct take. I think Feinstein's maneuver was pretty standard, A-B-C political kayfabe and wrote as much last week ITT.

One other factor is that I'm pretty confident her timing seems obviously to maximize GOP damage in the midterms (and in 2020), and wasn't a genuine play to derail the nomination. It's more like a semi-bluff where if the GOP is willing to do Round 2 of confirmation hearings and delay the vote, etc. then all the better for the Democrats to slow this down and beat him up some more, and that's a good outcome.

But what they're really trying to do is get Collins, Heller, Corey Gardner, Thom Tills, etc. and any other 2018/2020 vulnerable GOPer on record voting for a rapist. This also gives vulnerable Democratic senators a talking point for voting no. But left and left-leaning people seem upset this didn't come out BEFORE the hearings, I guess because they're imaging some magical other universe where the hearings are actually conducted in good faith and we earnestly discuss this via approved Discourse mediums? When the left laments that the Democrats are naive pushovers and get gamed constantly by the GOP, what do they want instead? This is pretty transparently the alternative: taking a damaging piece of information you know about and not using it for bad faith Kangaroo Court nomination hearings but timing it to cause maximum electoral damage to your opponents. There's not some magical Greenwaldian world where the Democrats are hard-nosed fighters but not operating like this, like where she releases the letter before the hearings so the GOP can circle the wagons then declare the issue resolved.

Barrett has serious skeletons in the closet too. She’s a pretty lousy choice as well. Kethledge I just don’t know much about

Got it. It's an interesting dynamic though. Kavanaugh has no real incentive to withdraw, since he can potentially run out the clock to the point where there is no alternative to confirming him. (Basically the position Trump was in at the end of primary season.) Trump could just withdraw the nomination, but he has his own reasons to go to bat for sexual predators that go beyond narrow confirmation strategy.

It doesn’t play nearly as well. It was pretty obvious Moore was guilty and did whatever he did many times. If nothing further comes out on Kavanaugh you’re a pretty lousy human being if you vote against your senator in a month because he or she voted in kavanaugh when they had no concrete evidence to vote no. The Dems are going to win the house and lose more seats in the senate and it’s highly remote any other scenario unfolds

As said in the post you are quoting from, absolutely not. I think it's>95% that he attempted to rape her.

Btw, this piece of **** was a lead attorney on Ken Starr’s team.... who threatened to throw Monica Lewinsky and her mom in jail if they didn’t testify against Bill Clinton.

Not clear what you're proposing then; the Democrats receive this information and then do nothing with it unless "something else comes out"?

There's not going to be any "concrete evidence" so that standard is functionally a non-starter. That barrier will never be cleared.

This seems to be arguing Democrats should have just kept their mouths shut and let Kavanaugh get approved without much fuss because you can't prove this accusation with something "concrete" like DNA evidence or something. That seems even more politically naive than the people who say Feinstein should have released the letter, but before the hearings.

He's married and has daughters, right?

For someone who has presented himself in the way he has, I suppose it's slightly possible he could face enough pressure/scrutiny over this that he withdraws because he (and his wife/family) wants to keep his appeals seat and not be remembered forever as a would-be rapist.

I think it's mostly bad signaling from her to her own side. Her statement about it being a long time ago was very easy to misconstrue as dismissive. When you do these kinds of things you want to feign even handedness but also signal to your base that your true intentions are for them. Something like, "we were deeply investigating with every intent to bring these to light dependent on the victim coming forward especially with a man who holds so much power over the women of the US." Something that tells the #metoo movement, "I'm playing dirty, bear with me."

I think that ship has sailed though, right? He's either Brett Kavanaugh the Circuit Judge and would-be rapist, or Brett Kavaugh the Supreme Court Justice and would-be rapist. He's not going become a feminist and join #TheResistance by withdrawing his nomination.

It makes you wonder how many people out there did stuff like this or had stuff done to them we never hear about. Every single time we see a case of one of these teachers sleeping with their students my entire Facebook lights up with all the guys saying where were these teachers when I went to school well I’m pretty sure they were there it’s just that back then everybody tended to keep their mouth shut for whatever reason

Agreed. I'm glad that she is finally playing dirty (I agree with dvaut that this is most likely the case) but she's so obviously out of practice that she butchered it a bit. Like you say she needs that republican trick of the bare faced lie that everyone knows is a lie but no one will call out. A lie that reassures your side while making things awkward for their side.

More likely this effect is because even if female teachers sleeping with students is relatively common (and I'm not arguing it is), there's generally only 1 or 2 dudes sleeping with the 1 teacher who crossed the line, but tons of horny perv teenage dudes who wanted to.

So every time you see these stories of teachers sleeping with their students, your entire Facebook lights up with all the guys saying "where were these teachers when I went to school?" because you know a lot of dudes who wanted to **** anyone with a pulse. It doesn't mean teacher/student relationships were especially common. Those stories are highly publicized and click-baited precisely because it's a common fantasy trope.

If he withdraws today (or any time before more **** comes out or there's additional testimony, I guess) I think, yeah, he'll be remembered in that way by those who remember him, but no one will really remember him so who cares.

We make one-off jokes about Harriet Miers being a moron from time to time (edit: I even spelled her name wrong the first time because who gives a **** about her), but 99.9% of Americans have either forgotten about her completely or didn't know who she was in the first place. I would expect a similar phenomenon here.

Also, if he actually is guilty of doing more rapey **** (likely), he knows that and it might be a better play to hold that appeals seat. If a bunch more stuff comes out, not only does he lose SCOTUS, he'll lose his appeals seat too.


**********I think it's pretty unlikely things play out this way, maybe like a 10% chance.

So the new standard for credible rape allegations is the rapist has to have done it at least twice? Because two women coming forward with false allegations is less likely than a woman plotting by telling her therapists and husband about an incident years in advance, passing a lie detector test and coming forward at great detriment to herself and her loved ones? THEN we can believe it?

I can’t help but reject this brand new standard and find it suspect.

I’m just wondering how many cases are the other way where the male teacher holds it over the female’s head that if you do this I’ll give you better grades etc. Even in cases where it’s consensual between a male teacher and a female I think we are less likely to hear about it because I think a woman is less apt to brag about it to her friends than a guy would. And if she does tell them they’re probably more apt to keep it a secret. Some of the stories with boys sleeping with their teachers leaked via their friends talking

Apologies of these were already posted itt