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It's kind of ironic you're denying the Bayesian analysis implicit in jman's assertion. Hint: it can still be true that ~100% of cases that are denied cert would be affirmed if heard by the SC while also true that this specific, not randomly selected case has ~0 correlation between cert vote and decision vote.
I never referenced this case. I referenced a post that was written because of this case. The post said that denying cert did not necessarily imply that the decision would be upheld. Which was essentially the same as I said earlier.
It is not logically impossible that all denied certs would be upheld. But given that so few circuit decisions are given a full review by the SC, mainly because they don't have the time, and given they overturn 80% of those they review, it is inconceivable that they wouldn't overturn a decent number of cases they don't review. This specific case was not part of my argument.