Brett Kavanaugh - Interest & Discussion - Page 19 - Politics and Economics

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09-14-2018 , 11:32 AM

#451

dth123451

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She’s 174 years old she probably stuffed the letter under some expired Cheerios coupons and forgot about it.

Which would be a less damning set of facts than what actually happened.

09-14-2018 , 11:36 AM

#452

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 58,714

The one good thing about Feinstein waiting so long is that if this does end up derailing Kavanaugh (I know, I know), there is a lot less time for a replacement appointee.

09-14-2018 , 11:51 AM

#453

champstark

aka starkwired

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 14,838

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

The one good thing about Feinstein waiting so long is that if this does end up derailing Kavanaugh (I know, I know), there is a lot less time for a replacement appointee.

They have until January regardless, but the chances of the Dems taking the Senate are <10% so that doesn't matter. Not sure what you mean by a lot less time.

09-14-2018 , 11:51 AM

#454

otatop

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Quote:

Originally Posted by champstark

FEINSTEIN HAS KNOWN SINCE ****ING JULY

god I ****ing hate her so much

She's crushing de Leon in the polls, I hate that she's impossible to get rid of.

09-14-2018 , 12:12 PM

#455

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by champstark

They have until January regardless, but the chances of the Dems taking the Senate are <10% so that doesn't matter. Not sure what you mean by a lot less time.

If Kavanope somehow gets derailed, someone will mention to Trump that he can just do a recess appointment during the holidays (like Obama should have done with Garland) and Trump will just do that.

09-14-2018 , 12:16 PM

#456

bobman0330

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Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

The one good thing about Feinstein waiting so long is that if this does end up derailing Kavanaugh (I know, I know), there is a lot less time for a replacement appointee.

Since there's zero chance of blocking Kavanaugh, isn't it better to play this card as close to the midterms as possible?

09-14-2018 , 12:25 PM

#457

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bobman0330

Since there's zero chance of blocking Kavanaugh, isn't it better to play this card as close to the midterms as possible?

Deplorables won't care, if anything it will motivate them after they got screwed out of Roy Moore (and many of them feel exactly this way believe it or not).

One good thing I can think of is that it might give Manchin, Heitkamp and Tester an excuse to vote no. Not that it will matter because Susan Collins is trash

09-14-2018 , 12:27 PM

#458

Our House

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Quote:

Originally Posted by champstark

They have until January regardless, but the chances of the Dems taking the Senate are <10% so that doesn't matter. Not sure what you mean by a lot less time.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

Unless 538 isn't reliable (is predictit or another source better? I feel dumb for even asking such a simpleton question on a poker forum), or the page linked above isn't correct, Dems are at 32.1% to win control of the Senate as of two hours ago.

And 82.9% to take the House: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/

09-14-2018 , 12:30 PM

#459

Namath12

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Math for Dems in the Senate was always hard this year because GOP is only defending like 3 seats. It will take a miracle for Dems to even get to 50 and we need 51 for it to matter.

09-14-2018 , 12:39 PM

#460

champstark

aka starkwired

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 14,838

Quote:

Originally Posted by Our House

32% is generous considering almost all the polls have pretty much every in play seat roughly a tie and the Dems have to win all of them.

09-14-2018 , 12:45 PM

#461

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 58,714

Predictit is not too far off that fivethirtyeight number (28% when I just looked).

09-14-2018 , 12:48 PM

#462

patron

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 3,805

Real odds are 50-50. It's either a blue wave or it's not.

Seriously though, the seats are somewhat correlated, which is why 28-32% sounds about right.

09-14-2018 , 12:58 PM

#463

champstark

aka starkwired

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 14,838

..................

09-14-2018 , 12:59 PM

#464

Namath12

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#NotMeDistantPast

09-14-2018 , 01:06 PM

#465

bobman0330

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Namath12

But what about all the voters who aren't deplorables? Maybe it will favorably affect turnout in that group?

Not really sure why you care about red-state Dems? Hard to imagine any of them being the 50th vote for Kavanaugh in any conceivable universe.

09-14-2018 , 01:06 PM

#466

Trolly McTrollson

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Somehow a SCOTUS pick attempting to rape a girl is the thrid biggest story of the day. #InfrastructureWeek

09-14-2018 , 01:12 PM

#467

Johnny Truant

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Writers: What if the antagonist meat-head jocks and rich bullies from every 80s movie, every Adam Sandler movie, and every tween book were suddenly in charge of everything?

09-14-2018 , 01:36 PM

#468

patron

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 3,805

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Somehow a SCOTUS pick attempting to rape a girl is the thrid biggest story of the day. #InfrastructureWeek

On Fox "News"'s website right now, Kavanaugh is the 27th headline:

Kavanaugh denies cryptic charge after DiFi makes federal case of high school-era allegation

#FairAndBalanced

09-14-2018 , 01:41 PM

#469

Namath12

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09-14-2018 , 01:45 PM

#470

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bobman0330

From what I understand (and this may have changed), both Manchin and Heitkamp were leaning yes on Kavanaugh, which is why everyone has been trying to whip no's out of Collins and Murkowski. I'll admit I have nfi about Tester.

09-14-2018 , 02:06 PM

#471

Max Cut

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Your Honor, I would like to direct your attention to all the people I didn't rape.

09-14-2018 , 02:06 PM

#472

Namath12

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"Your Honor, my client is innocent of murder. I would like to enter into evidence this list of people who are still alive."

09-14-2018 , 02:18 PM

#473

goofyballer

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Senator Leahy writes in WaPo about why he can't support Kavanaugh

Quote:

Between 2001 and 2003, two Republican staffers regularly gained unauthorized access to the private computer files of six Democratic senators, including mine, taking 4,670 files on controversial judicial nominees.

Kavanaugh was asked more than 100 times about this scandal in 2004 and 2006. He testified repeatedly that he knew nothing about the source of the information; that he received nothing that even appeared to be prepared by Democratic staff; and that he never suspected anything unusual, or “untoward.”

But emails I released last week show that then-Republican Senate Judiciary Committee counsel Manuel Miranda regularly shared obviously ill-gotten, inside information with Kavanaugh, which Miranda often asked be kept secret.

That includes eight pages from a Democratic memo, taken verbatim from me, on a controversial nominee that Kavanaugh was asked to not forward. Emails also show that Miranda told Kavanaugh about a sensitive, private letter that I received on a nominee’s position on abortion — a letter Miranda described as “confidential,” requesting that “no action be taken.” They also show Miranda asked to meet privately at his home to give Kavanaugh “paper” on Democratic senators’ thinking.

Other emails describe meetings we were holding, materials staff were sharing internally, leads we were pursuing, what staffers were advising their senators with the notation “highly confidential,” a private letter I had sent to another senator, and even one from an associate of Miranda with the subject line “spying” with information from a Democratic “mole.”

"Kavanaugh lied during his previous confirmation hearings and is still lying now" should be repeated over and over. Can Dems even pretend to start (propose a vote?) impeachment proceedings for Kavanaugh over this? Make a show of it.