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03-16-2016 , 12:28 AM
#201
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missouri is nuts

but the website's order book is frozen

it's problem
03-16-2016 , 12:28 AM
#202
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yo domer how much did Rubio cost you? You were like the last guy clutching Rubio tickets while the vets were out on the track putting him down.
03-16-2016 , 12:30 AM
#203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
yo domer how much did Rubio cost you?
i'll make a profit no matter who the republican nominee is, so nothing
03-16-2016 , 12:36 AM
#204
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If Bernie wins MO now it is likely by less then 300 votes. I would prob put him at about 53%.... Now at 0. This sucks
03-16-2016 , 12:46 AM
#205
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Holy crap did I dodge a bullet in MO. Sold my Clinton No shares at 96% 30 minutes ago, current value 5%.

Briefly held some Clinton Yes shares at 8%, which I sold for a small loss. Those shares are now at 88%.
03-16-2016 , 12:58 AM
#206
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****. I only win on Trump and Kasich.

Never bet with your heart.
03-16-2016 , 05:23 PM
#207
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Seems quite a few people are upset Predictit changed the rules on Bernie.MO.
03-16-2016 , 05:26 PM
#208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maxtower
Seems quite a few people are upset Predictit changed the rules on Bernie.MO.
What did they resolve it as?

I lost a lot of money on PredictIt yesterday :P. But actually since I cashed out all my IL shares around 3-4c, I'm still up 300% on what I deposited pre-Michigan. Probably taking a break from the election betting game now though. I had I think near a 45% shot at winning $4k last night, would do again for only 13c a share.
03-16-2016 , 09:03 PM
#209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imjosh
What did they resolve it as?

I lost a lot of money on PredictIt yesterday :P. But actually since I cashed out all my IL shares around 3-4c, I'm still up 300% on what I deposited pre-Michigan. Probably taking a break from the election betting game now though. I had I think near a 45% shot at winning $4k last night, would do again for only 13c a share.
They changed the end time to accommodate overseas ballots. There's speculation this could flip the result back to Bernie.
03-17-2016 , 10:36 AM
#210
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Well that's some horse****
03-17-2016 , 11:08 AM
#211
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seems like a tenable position...the vote is not final, and the race has not been called by any news agency.
03-17-2016 , 11:20 AM
#212
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Anyone disagree that AZ is a total lock on both sides?
03-17-2016 , 02:31 PM
#213
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Yes. I'm on Trump UT and Cruz AZ simply because I think assigning a 90% prob to states with zero polling is ridic.

Interestingly, the Missouri markets are still open with Clinton at 84% and TRUMP at 95% if anyone feels like trying their luck guessing absentee ballot splits.
03-17-2016 , 02:55 PM
#214
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Is anyone betting the Clinton indictment? I guess 5dimes has a market.
03-17-2016 , 02:59 PM
#215
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Quote:
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Is anyone betting the Clinton indictment? I guess 5dimes has a market.
PredictIt does too
03-17-2016 , 03:09 PM
#216
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PredictIt has indictment at 25%, which I would short the hell out of except it's not likely to resolve for a while. If you're thinking in terms of Hillary getting indicted allowing Bern to get the nom, it has to happen before she clinches because if she drops out with a majority of delegates it will be a brokered convention instead of just giving it to Bernie.
03-17-2016 , 03:37 PM
#217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81
Yes. I'm on Trump UT and Cruz AZ simply because I think assigning a 90% prob to states with zero polling is ridic.
Cruz is explicitly not bothering to campaign in AZ because 55% of the votes are in / dump now, I was mostly asking about Hillary
03-17-2016 , 03:53 PM
#218
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Cruz is going to be in Phoenix tomorrow. AZ is statewide WTA so it's not like he's consolation delegate farming.
03-17-2016 , 06:30 PM
#219
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Deposited into PI today and the first thing I noticed was that Hilldawg winning MO was only at 86%. I bought some, and then like half an hour later she's up to 94%?? wtf, weird. The market appeared to be thousands of shares deep when I placed my order.
03-19-2016 , 01:58 PM
#220
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
Deposited into PI today and the first thing I noticed was that Hilldawg winning MO was only at 86%. I bought some, and then like half an hour later she's up to 94%?? wtf, weird. The market appeared to be thousands of shares deep when I placed my order.
I think the overseas ballots were late as of Friday at 12, maybe some news around that moved the market.
03-19-2016 , 01:59 PM
#221
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Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
seems like a tenable position...the vote is not final, and the race has not been called by any news agency.
Yeah I think the market should resolve to the winner, but they should be smarter about how the rules are written if they want to extend deadlines.
03-19-2016 , 02:00 PM
#222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81
PredictIt has indictment at 25%, which I would short the hell out of except it's not likely to resolve for a while. If you're thinking in terms of Hillary getting indicted allowing Bern to get the nom, it has to happen before she clinches because if she drops out with a majority of delegates it will be a brokered convention instead of just giving it to Bernie.
I wish the indictment timeline expired on election day instead of year end to make the pair-trade easier. 25% seems way too high.
03-19-2016 , 02:03 PM
#223
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So this is now a thing:

03-19-2016 , 02:36 PM
#224
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I tried to arb the Obama approval rating market on PredictIt, specifically the NO shares, but I'm pretty sure I failed and cost myself a couple bucks. I can't quite wrap my head around what I need to look for.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/197...f-day-March-25
03-19-2016 , 03:15 PM
#225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81
I tried to arb the Obama approval rating market on PredictIt, specifically the NO shares, but I'm pretty sure I failed and cost myself a couple bucks. I can't quite wrap my head around what I need to look for.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/197...f-day-March-25
What are you arbing against?

Oh, I think I get what you mean. You can buy all the NO shares right now for $3.94 and 4 of them will close at $1, so you make 6c.
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