Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Politics political discourse

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-16-2016, 12:28 AM   #201
domer2
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
domer2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 32,897
Re: Betting on Elections thread

missouri is nuts

but the website's order book is frozen

it's problem
domer2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2016, 12:28 AM   #202
DVaut1
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DVaut1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Ann Arbor
Posts: 28,068
Re: Betting on Elections thread

yo domer how much did Rubio cost you? You were like the last guy clutching Rubio tickets while the vets were out on the track putting him down.
DVaut1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2016, 12:30 AM   #203
domer2
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
domer2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 32,897
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1 View Post
yo domer how much did Rubio cost you?
i'll make a profit no matter who the republican nominee is, so nothing
domer2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2016, 12:36 AM   #204
ShaneO19
journeyman
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 233
Re: Betting on Elections thread

If Bernie wins MO now it is likely by less then 300 votes. I would prob put him at about 53%.... Now at 0. This sucks
ShaneO19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2016, 12:46 AM   #205
iron81
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
iron81's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Resident Spork
Posts: 16,709
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Holy crap did I dodge a bullet in MO. Sold my Clinton No shares at 96% 30 minutes ago, current value 5%.

Briefly held some Clinton Yes shares at 8%, which I sold for a small loss. Those shares are now at 88%.
iron81 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2016, 12:58 AM   #206
microbet
Solar Powered
 
microbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: 69.20.56.132
Posts: 43,209
Re: Betting on Elections thread

****. I only win on Trump and Kasich.

Never bet with your heart.
microbet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2016, 05:23 PM   #207
maxtower
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
maxtower's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,708
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Seems quite a few people are upset Predictit changed the rules on Bernie.MO.
maxtower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2016, 05:26 PM   #208
imjosh
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
imjosh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Seattle
Posts: 18,750
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by maxtower View Post
Seems quite a few people are upset Predictit changed the rules on Bernie.MO.
What did they resolve it as?

I lost a lot of money on PredictIt yesterday :P. But actually since I cashed out all my IL shares around 3-4c, I'm still up 300% on what I deposited pre-Michigan. Probably taking a break from the election betting game now though. I had I think near a 45% shot at winning $4k last night, would do again for only 13c a share.
imjosh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2016, 09:03 PM   #209
maxtower
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
maxtower's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,708
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by imjosh View Post
What did they resolve it as?

I lost a lot of money on PredictIt yesterday :P. But actually since I cashed out all my IL shares around 3-4c, I'm still up 300% on what I deposited pre-Michigan. Probably taking a break from the election betting game now though. I had I think near a 45% shot at winning $4k last night, would do again for only 13c a share.
They changed the end time to accommodate overseas ballots. There's speculation this could flip the result back to Bernie.
maxtower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 10:36 AM   #210
vaya
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
vaya's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Possible Kill Screen
Posts: 14,522
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Well that's some horse****
vaya is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 11:08 AM   #211
domer2
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
domer2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 32,897
Re: Betting on Elections thread

seems like a tenable position...the vote is not final, and the race has not been called by any news agency.
domer2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 11:20 AM   #212
adanthar
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
adanthar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Now with 100% more seaside views
Posts: 20,097
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Anyone disagree that AZ is a total lock on both sides?
adanthar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 02:31 PM   #213
iron81
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
iron81's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Resident Spork
Posts: 16,709
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Yes. I'm on Trump UT and Cruz AZ simply because I think assigning a 90% prob to states with zero polling is ridic.

Interestingly, the Missouri markets are still open with Clinton at 84% and TRUMP at 95% if anyone feels like trying their luck guessing absentee ballot splits.
iron81 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 02:55 PM   #214
seattlelou
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
seattlelou's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: 6'20" and killing for fun.
Posts: 31,605
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Is anyone betting the Clinton indictment? I guess 5dimes has a market.
seattlelou is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 02:59 PM   #215
imjosh
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
imjosh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Seattle
Posts: 18,750
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou View Post
Is anyone betting the Clinton indictment? I guess 5dimes has a market.
PredictIt does too
imjosh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 03:09 PM   #216
iron81
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
iron81's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Resident Spork
Posts: 16,709
Re: Betting on Elections thread

PredictIt has indictment at 25%, which I would short the hell out of except it's not likely to resolve for a while. If you're thinking in terms of Hillary getting indicted allowing Bern to get the nom, it has to happen before she clinches because if she drops out with a majority of delegates it will be a brokered convention instead of just giving it to Bernie.
iron81 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 03:37 PM   #217
adanthar
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
adanthar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Now with 100% more seaside views
Posts: 20,097
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81 View Post
Yes. I'm on Trump UT and Cruz AZ simply because I think assigning a 90% prob to states with zero polling is ridic.
Cruz is explicitly not bothering to campaign in AZ because 55% of the votes are in / dump now, I was mostly asking about Hillary
adanthar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 03:53 PM   #218
iron81
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
iron81's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Resident Spork
Posts: 16,709
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Cruz is going to be in Phoenix tomorrow. AZ is statewide WTA so it's not like he's consolation delegate farming.
iron81 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2016, 06:30 PM   #219
goofyballer
 
goofyballer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 59,788
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Deposited into PI today and the first thing I noticed was that Hilldawg winning MO was only at 86%. I bought some, and then like half an hour later she's up to 94%?? wtf, weird. The market appeared to be thousands of shares deep when I placed my order.
goofyballer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2016, 01:58 PM   #220
maxtower
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
maxtower's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,708
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer View Post
Deposited into PI today and the first thing I noticed was that Hilldawg winning MO was only at 86%. I bought some, and then like half an hour later she's up to 94%?? wtf, weird. The market appeared to be thousands of shares deep when I placed my order.
I think the overseas ballots were late as of Friday at 12, maybe some news around that moved the market.
maxtower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2016, 01:59 PM   #221
maxtower
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
maxtower's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,708
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2 View Post
seems like a tenable position...the vote is not final, and the race has not been called by any news agency.
Yeah I think the market should resolve to the winner, but they should be smarter about how the rules are written if they want to extend deadlines.
maxtower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2016, 02:00 PM   #222
maxtower
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
maxtower's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,708
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81 View Post
PredictIt has indictment at 25%, which I would short the hell out of except it's not likely to resolve for a while. If you're thinking in terms of Hillary getting indicted allowing Bern to get the nom, it has to happen before she clinches because if she drops out with a majority of delegates it will be a brokered convention instead of just giving it to Bernie.
I wish the indictment timeline expired on election day instead of year end to make the pair-trade easier. 25% seems way too high.
maxtower is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2016, 02:03 PM   #223
adanthar
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
adanthar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Now with 100% more seaside views
Posts: 20,097
Re: Betting on Elections thread

So this is now a thing:

adanthar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2016, 02:36 PM   #224
iron81
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
iron81's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Resident Spork
Posts: 16,709
Re: Betting on Elections thread

I tried to arb the Obama approval rating market on PredictIt, specifically the NO shares, but I'm pretty sure I failed and cost myself a couple bucks. I can't quite wrap my head around what I need to look for.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/197...f-day-March-25
iron81 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2016, 03:15 PM   #225
maxtower
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
maxtower's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 7,708
Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by iron81 View Post
I tried to arb the Obama approval rating market on PredictIt, specifically the NO shares, but I'm pretty sure I failed and cost myself a couple bucks. I can't quite wrap my head around what I need to look for.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/197...f-day-March-25
What are you arbing against?

Oh, I think I get what you mean. You can buy all the NO shares right now for $3.94 and 4 of them will close at $1, so you make 6c.
maxtower is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online