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Old 03-14-2016, 12:51 AM   #126
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

That's the second time I've heard a crazy person say NC is possible. I'm going to buy at $.14 and put in a sell at $.30.
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Old 03-14-2016, 12:56 AM   #127
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I think the NO on will Bashar al-Assad remain president of Syria through 2016 is a good buy at $.28.
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Old 03-14-2016, 01:07 AM   #128
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Kasich seems like value in OH even at $.70. It's an open primary and his approval ratings are high. Like 62% among everyone and 77% for Republicans. Trump has sewn the seeds of doubt. Buckeyes might also be nervous about the Trumpening in Cleveland. Could get really big Independents and even Democrats voting to block Trump.
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Old 03-14-2016, 01:35 AM   #129
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Currently wagering $200 to win $3700 on Bernie for the general. Got 25:1 on $100 about a week ago, feeling pretty great about my value.
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Old 03-14-2016, 01:44 AM   #130
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Personally I'd hedge out of that at market price, which is around 17%.
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Old 03-14-2016, 01:47 AM   #131
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I've asked this before, with no answer I think, has anyone cashed out of Predictit?

I guess I'm wary of such things by nature, but you know, many of us have had problems cashing out of various sites over the years.
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Old 03-14-2016, 01:53 AM   #132
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

It doesn't even look like my account will make it the 30 days before I can withdraw.
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Old 03-14-2016, 10:01 AM   #133
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Wouldn't the GT ratio (not absolute numbers) maybe be good in the case that Bernie is just gaining ground? That's not necessarily a good indication that he will win in NC where he's so far behind.
It definitely indicates that he is gaining ground. It doesn't mean he will win. However if you gave me nothing but GT data and told me that there weren't any polls in NC, i'd think he had a chance to win there. So it's really up to whether we trust the polling. The polling in NC has been unlike any other state thus far that I can remember for the dem primary. For example the polls from 1/18 to 2/15 all had Sanders gaining on Clinton, then cutting her lead to +10. Recent polls have shown him considerably farther away than that. So which is it? Were the old polls bad or are the recent polls bad?

BTW - GT update for Ohio over the last 24 hours, its now

Bernie 66 Hillary 34. People are starting to google the man they are gonna vote for in this state I think.

And NC went up slightly again to 55/30, and this is before Bernie's NC rally. Obviously his trends are going to go up for the really, the question is if the trend spike stays up, which would indicate to me that people are carrying the enthusiasm from that rally into election day.
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Old 03-14-2016, 10:02 AM   #134
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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I've asked this before, with no answer I think, has anyone cashed out of Predictit?

I guess I'm wary of such things by nature, but you know, many of us have had problems cashing out of various sites over the years.
I've only been on the site for like 2 weeks I think, so I can't. 30 day time frame before you can withdraw.
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Old 03-14-2016, 10:56 AM   #135
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I'm out of all 3/15 state markets on the GOP side. Locked up some gains on nearly all of them, but I am very suspicious that the cancelled rally is a black swan event and the correct play is to ban myself from state betting until I figure out what's going on.

GL to everyone tomorrow.
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Old 03-14-2016, 11:21 AM   #136
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Degenerate gambler adanthar gets scared of a few protesters and takes his ball and goes home! Very weak!
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Old 03-14-2016, 11:49 AM   #137
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I have 1313 shares btwn Bernie yes and Hillary no in NC at an avg cost of .125. I could sell some of these, sell my Cruz Illinois, sell my Kasich Ohio, or deposit more money to play Bernie Missouri. Whats my play?
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Old 03-14-2016, 12:25 PM   #138
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I kind of like the last idea, I'm on Bernie MO.

I'm on the fence on selling my Kasich OH shares.
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Old 03-14-2016, 12:43 PM   #139
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Quote:
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I have 1313 shares btwn Bernie yes and Hillary no in NC at an avg cost of .125. I could sell some of these, sell my Cruz Illinois, sell my Kasich Ohio, or deposit more money to play Bernie Missouri. Whats my play?
He's not going to win NC.
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Old 03-14-2016, 01:10 PM   #140
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight View Post
I have 1313 shares btwn Bernie yes and Hillary no in NC at an avg cost of .125. I could sell some of these, sell my Cruz Illinois, sell my Kasich Ohio, or deposit more money to play Bernie Missouri. Whats my play?
Bernie MO had already trended to 70cents. Bernie will win MO, everything is working in his favor for that state, and the GOOGLETRENDS confirm it. Look at how sick this plot it over the last 7 days in MO.



This is why I can safely call it the lock of the millennium. You can actually see him making HUGE gains in the past 4 days of this 7 day span. Hillary isnt moving at all. No pulse, no signs of life. She gone.

But really the question you have to ask yourself is this. Lets assume Bernie is 100% to win MO (i think he is). So you are buying dollar bills for 70cents right now in MO (removing vig from the equation since it is site-wide).

However, in NC your gains can be much greater than that. In NC you will make more money then MO as long as Bernie shares get larger than (0.125)*(10/7) = 0.178.

So if you think it's likely that Bernie will get to 18cents in NC, that's your play.

I might move some over to MO for the free money but I do like the NC gamble play. I think Bernie reaches over 20c in NC easily over the course of today and tomorrow. Like i said, i don't think the are going to be able to call it for Hillary as soon as polls close in NC. If that's the case, you can make some more money on NC due to people who bet on Hillary getting shook and dipping out early for a loss.

Safer play = MO (literally free money)
Gambler play to pump and dump = NC
EV play??? (i think its actually NC - just set some of you shares to auto sell at 20 cents and you are making more money than you could in MO, and i think it gets higher than that)

I don't bet on the GOP side, i don't follow it enough to know how to make +EV decisions

Last edited by imjosh; 03-14-2016 at 01:18 PM.
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Old 03-14-2016, 01:26 PM   #141
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

PPP had Hillary up 40 points today among NC voters who already voted (322k votes as of yesterday morning). I think it's pretty likely its called right at poll closing or when those early voting results are officially released.
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Old 03-14-2016, 02:07 PM   #142
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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PPP had Hillary up 40 points today among NC voters who already voted (322k votes as of yesterday morning). I think it's pretty likely its called right at poll closing or when those early voting results are officially released.
That's true, good point. Do they usually include those right away?
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Old 03-14-2016, 02:20 PM   #143
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

No. Depending on the state, sometimes they come out in chunks toward the end of election night.
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Old 03-14-2016, 08:43 PM   #144
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

Bernie is outspending Hllary 1.8MM to 600k in NC....

i got some shares on NC at 11cents now, I like the value now. May sell early though, not sure if i'm brave enough to go all the way.
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Old 03-14-2016, 09:36 PM   #145
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

You should sell, he can't win NC. The spending might be correct because he can still win more delegates.
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Old 03-15-2016, 10:52 AM   #146
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

New primaries are up and Bernie like $.80 in most of them.

AZ though, he's at $.45. I'll probably buy that.
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Old 03-15-2016, 11:10 AM   #147
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

There isn't going to be much value for the next month because Bernie is almost a lock to win every single state until NY. Good for Bernie, bad for bettors. There is more value in betting Bernie in close states because he always closes the gap, but there aren't many close states any time soon. I'm investing a good amount into AZ once the bets from today process (assuming Bernie wins at least one of MO, OH, or IL). I think he is significantly undervalued there. The newest poll (click here) does not show any breakdowns in voter demographics, has over 20% undecided, is landline only, and thus can be completely ignored.

Here are the GT over the past day. 20 hours ago, it was announced Bernie was holding a rally in Phoenix tonight. You can actually see the graph start to climb once that announcement was made. Insane. The ratio is 51/19 over the past day! Obv HRC will climb some when she actually shows up at the state, but its insane that Bernie is this high in a state that isn't even voting for a week, and he hasn't even done the rally yet. Holy ****. As for the search index, it's 39. For comparison, the search index in FL and NC are 31 and 43, respectively, and those states are actually voting today! If you are a 538 apologist, consider that they put this state down for Bernie targeting more delegates than Hillary. Indicates that the demographics are good enough for him to win.



Some other reasons to feel good about this bet.
-Tucson ranks in the top 10 in per-capita donations to Bernie's campaign.
-Congressman Raśl M. Grijalva has endorsed Sanders.
-Bernie has been working for the native american vote, Hillary has not mentioned it at all afaik.

Reasons to feel concern about this bet
-Early voting started 3 weeks ago.
-Registration closed 3 weeks ago.
-Closed primary

I gave you the scoop on Michigan, then I gave you the scoop on Illinois (even if he doesn't win IL you could sell your shares now and make 3x your money if you bought when I said). Follow me to the money on AZ. The only question is whether the price will drop after today or rise. I have no idea what the answer to that question is. My hunch is that the price will drop a bit more than it is now. Regardless, i'm all in on today's states anyways, so I can't reinvest until tomorrow.

Last edited by imjosh; 03-15-2016 at 11:26 AM.
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Old 03-15-2016, 12:19 PM   #148
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

I had been holding some back, but I decided to go all in as well. I did put some on AZ and then threw the rest mostly on MO. I'm such a homer, but if Bernie can't win MO, the chances of me losing interest are pretty high anyway and it's not a lot of money (for one, I'm still not confident about the cash out).
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Old 03-15-2016, 12:33 PM   #149
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

why are you so paranoid about being able to cash out?

cftc approved, non-profit
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Old 03-15-2016, 12:40 PM   #150
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Re: Betting on Elections thread

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why are you so paranoid about being able to cash out?

cftc approved, non-profit
I don't know anything about the cftc. If that's meaningful, then good. Non-prof doesn't mean anything imo. I've known too many people who have non-profs to have faith in that in and of itself.

I'd just like to see ONE person cash something out.
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