Betting on Elections thread - Page 54 - Politics and Economics

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08-26-2016 , 10:58 AM

#1326

Trolly McTrollson

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I think there are just a lot of delusional Trump fish in the game. Same reason you can always make money betting against Libertarians.

08-26-2016 , 01:11 PM

#1327

maxtower

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How does the trump price on PI compare to Betfair?

08-26-2016 , 02:20 PM

#1328

iron81

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Trump price is much higher on PI.

08-26-2016 , 02:59 PM

#1329

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iron81

Trump price is much higher on PI.

This makes me think the high fees and $850 limits allow Trump fans to have more impact on PI prices.

08-26-2016 , 03:12 PM

#1330

seattlelou

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Quote:

Originally Posted by maxtower

This makes me think the high fees and $850 limits allow Trump fans to have more impact on PI prices.

Agree, less smart money makes the result look like a poll.

08-26-2016 , 04:42 PM

#1331

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,667

Yeah the 10% fee to withdraw just kills PI.

Like if you're depositing just to bet that market and get out, you bet $850 to win $961 after the 5% on your winnings and 10% on the whole thing.

850*.27 = 229.5.

229.5*.95 = 218.025

218.025 + 850 = 1068.025

1068.025*.9 = 961.2225

I think the math correctly accounts for all fees.

Hell of a scam they got going actually. Like PI is profitable for people who are rolling their money into future prediction markets, but the 10% really kills it as a one-time get in get out betting market.

08-26-2016 , 04:43 PM

#1332

iron81

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It's 10% on your winnings and 5% to withdraw.

08-26-2016 , 04:49 PM

#1333

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,667

Ah ok then my math was off.

It's actually 850 to win 1003.7 which equates to around 1.18 to 1, or a price of 82 cents in a vig-free market.

08-29-2016 , 09:07 AM

#1334

Trolly McTrollson

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"Will there be a third party at the debates?" is a pretty easy NO for .83 imo. Gonna need a major upset in the next 2-3 weeks for that to ever happen.

08-29-2016 , 12:39 PM

#1335

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

"Will there be a third party at the debates?" is a pretty easy NO for .83 imo. Gonna need a major upset in the next 2-3 weeks for that to ever happen.

Yes, I'm all in on that one.

08-31-2016 , 10:05 AM

#1336

Nonfiction

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pokerlogist

By my count Trump still has four "Pants on Fire" POF lies this month so far. Using the 0.16 POF per day lie rate, if we assume a stable, independent event "pants on fire" lie rate, the estimated probabilities for August POF total lies (yes p,no p) and in parenthesis (yes price, no price) based on a binomial model are:

8 or more (4+ more this month)__ .04,.96 (.13,.89)
exactly 7 (3 more this month) ___ .12 ,.88(.15,.88)
exactly 6 (2 more this month) ___.27,.73 (.21,.80)
exactly 5 (1 more this month) ___ .37,.63 (.33,.69)
4 or less (0 more this month) ___ .21,.89 (.18,.84)

So betting “8 or more No” has the most EV=+.07 right this minute according to this model. Trump appears to be controlling himself more now so the model may be overestimating his future POF rate.

Btw, the POF contract seems too much based on Politifact's subjective choice, unlike poll numbers or votes. Maybe Predict shouldn't have offered this one.

4 or less got up into the 70s before the release of the 5th POF yesterday, pretty brutal for anyone stuck holding.

08-31-2016 , 11:13 AM

#1337

Pokerlogist

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 3,302

Yes that was a shock to a lot of wagerers. He's such a hustling windbag, the Donald just can't control himself. From what I read, some people are asking Politifacts to overturn some of their previous POF declarations. Still, Predict is offering the same sort of wager for September. This puts too much pressure on Politifacts, imo.
I'm in good shape for August with my wagers on 8 or more, I would hope.

08-31-2016 , 05:21 PM

#1338

maxtower

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When betting on website publishing with somewhat subjective outcomes, PI should find two websites that publish similar information and average the two.

09-01-2016 , 02:32 PM

#1339

cookies4u

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 467

anyone bother to figure out how much you can effectively get down on either candidate on PI, counting all correlated markets that are within like 1-2%. so for ex. if someone was betting on HRC, including markets like "Kaine for VP", "Will the next president be a woman", etc.

09-01-2016 , 02:52 PM

#1340

Trolly McTrollson

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I think there's four markets for that: Clinton for pres, Kaine for VP, will the Democratic Party win, and will a woman win. I guess you could max them all for $3,400.

09-01-2016 , 03:13 PM

#1341

cookies4u

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 467

ah that's it? i guess i assumed there were more for some reason.

09-01-2016 , 03:34 PM

#1342

maxtower

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You can always look at individual states that poll close to the national average. Less correlated, but it's still there.

09-01-2016 , 03:44 PM

#1343

Trolly McTrollson

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Clinton winning FL is gonna correlate somewhat closely with her winning the whole enchilada.

09-01-2016 , 04:25 PM

#1344

domer2

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cookies4u

$5950 thus far

Individual to be next President $850 * 2
Party to be next President $850 * 2
Individual to be next Vice President $850 * 2
Woman to be President $850

09-01-2016 , 04:30 PM

#1345

iron81

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

I think there's four markets for that: Clinton for pres, Kaine for VP, will the Democratic Party win, and will a woman win. I guess you could max them all for $3,400.

You can double up some of these by betting GOP No.

09-01-2016 , 07:43 PM

#1346

seattlelou

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Anybody like Dems to control the WH/Senate/House at .17? If you think Wang's analysis is good it is a steal. That said, Wang was brutal in 2014.

09-02-2016 , 12:34 PM

#1347

Biesterfield

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my fellow Clinton long bettors: at what price are we re-uping? I'm hopeful (perhaps mistakenly) that the recent polling will move the market in our favor just like it did in the months post RNC.

09-02-2016 , 05:12 PM

#1348

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Biesterfield

my fellow Clinton long bettors: at what price are we re-uping? I'm hopeful (perhaps mistakenly) that the recent polling will move the market in our favor just like it did in the months post RNC.

Outside of some unplanned event, I'm waiting for the first debate. I think there is a good chance Hillary gets flustered. She's just not a very natural speaker and I am hoping the polls and markets move against her post-debate. That will be a good time to jump in.

If Trump doesn't get a debate bounce, then I guess I'll just take whatever price I can get on Hillary at that point.

09-02-2016 , 06:25 PM

#1349

adanthar

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Quote:

Originally Posted by seattlelou

Anybody like Dems to control the WH/Senate/House at .17? If you think Wang's analysis is good it is a steal. That said, Wang was brutal in 2014.

Ehh, given the Senate clearly has lots of vote splitting going on I can't really see a D House being worth too much. 17 might be fair.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biesterfield

my fellow Clinton long bettors: at what price are we re-uping? I'm hopeful (perhaps mistakenly) that the recent polling will move the market in our favor just like it did in the months post RNC.

I will never stop reupping at 2:1 but will consider myself lucky if it gets there. Waiting too long runs the risk that the RNC pulls out which means you're never getting > 20% again.