So i've got 965 of B4 (5) at 13c average, B5 and B4 are as predicted, collapsing on news of most recent POF. Do I sell? I still think its likely 5-7 and have a ridic entry price, let it ride?

~$130 to win ~$1000 or i sell for ~$90 profit. Ok, talked myself into holding.

So i sold out all my b5 for 28c and now got another 500 at 6c. What a time to be alive

Welp, I guess I blew the last of my "just dicking around" money on this contract unless Trump can avoid lying for two weeks. No ragerets.

That's the ****ty thing, when I started firing it was at around $3.70. I should make a ton on that with the liquidity available at the time.

Highly unlikely to turn a profit at $3.89 ime, generally it has to drop below $3.85 before I'll try.

I don't understand how you lost then ?

Ok i have his Politifact "totally false" statement count by month as follows:
May 5
June 5
July 4
August 1-11 3
So he has a total of 17 over 101 days for an estimated lie rate of 0.16 per day

If we assume a stable, independent event lie rate we can easily use the binomial distribution to estimate future probabilities for August total lies:

4 or less -0.15
exactly 5 -0.21
exactly 6 -0.24
exactly 7 -0.195
8 or more-0.21

The current Predict "yes" prices are .11,.23,.25,.20,.24. They are not terribly different from this model today.

Anyone feel free to double check this or try a different approach. Of course, Trump could go full crazy or maybe just shut down totally. Who knows?

rules state "pants on fire" not "totally false"

thanks, fixed:


Ok i have his Politifact "pants on fire" statement count by month as follows:
May 5
June 5
July 4
August 1-11 3
So he has a total of 17 over 101 days for an estimated "pants on fire" lie rate of 0.16 per day

If we assume a stable, independent event "pants on fire" lie rate we can easily use the binomial distribution to estimate future probabilities for August total lies:

4 or less -0.15
exactly 5 -0.21
exactly 6 -0.24
exactly 7 -0.195
8 or more-0.21

The current Predict "yes" prices are .11,.23,.25,.20,.24. They are not terribly different from this model today.

Anyone feel free to double check this or try a different approach. Of course, Trump could go full crazy or maybe just shut down totally. Who knows?

He has to make a statement worthy of fact checking, right? He has a policy speech tomorrow that should be good for one. I am sure it will contain several but only one worth delving into.

Right. Politifact does some screening to winnow the field to stuff that can be proven/disproven.

market totally overreacting once again, now due to lack of any POF for the last few days. He is likely to make one today so there is probably some value in trying to get some of the higher brackets on sale and then sell after the inevitable surge

Has to be somewhat interesting for the readers too.

What kind of action do you wiz kids think I could get on the House GOP getting fewer votes than House Dems but still retaining control of the House? Asking for a friend

Doubt anyone wants to bet on something that obscure.

I thought maybe predict it would have something but nada

Well Trump just added one more Pants on Fire (POF) lie for August according to Politifact when saying that “US elections are rigged”. By my count he now has four POF lies this month so far.
Updating the model:
Today is Aug 17 and I’ll make it 15 left days to go and use the 0.16 POF per day lie rate. If we assume a stable, independent event "pants on fire" lie rate we can use the binomial distribution to estimate future probabilities for August POF total lies and I get:

4 or less (0 more this month) ___0.07
exactly 5 (1 more this month) ___0.21
exactly 6 (2 more this month) ___0.28
exactly 7 (3 more this month) ___0.23
8 or more (more than 3 more this month)___0.21

p(one or more POF in next 5 days)=.58
p(one or more POF in next 7 days)=.70

The current Predict "yes" prices are .05 (4),.29(5),.27(6),.25(7),.27(8) respectively. So betting “exactly 5 No” has the most +EV for a straight bet currently according to this model.

Anyone feel free to double check this or try a different approach. Of course, Trump could go full crazy with POF lies or maybe even just shut down totally. Who knows?

There are 15 days left in August, but the market itself does not resolve until September 9th. The most recently added one was actually from august 1st, but only now posted on polifact, so I could certainly see them still adding POFs from mid/late August up until that Sep 9th deadline.

I'm also worried about his new campaign manager guy wanting Trump to ramp up the crazy. I personally sold out of my B4s.

Does anyone have any opinion about the FL senate race between Rubio and the Democrat?

Seems like they are pretty close in the polls.

My opinion is: lol local politics betting.

made a ridiculous amount of money on the trump fundraising markets this month

those markets have been a goldmine for me

patrick murphy is a toolbox, and rubio would stomp him by 10+ if trump wasn't on the ticket. with trump, the polling is putting it in the neighborhood of a 3-7 point race in rubio's favor, and it could definitely be close to a toss-up with a complete trump collapse.

bear in mind tho that rubio ain't getting back in that race unless he thinks (with perhaps the assistance of some polling) he stands a great chance of winning, so read into that what you will

By my count Trump still has four "Pants on Fire" POF lies this month so far. Using the 0.16 POF per day lie rate, if we assume a stable, independent event "pants on fire" lie rate, the estimated probabilities for August POF total lies (yes p,no p) and in parenthesis (yes price, no price) based on a binomial model are:

8 or more (4+ more this month)__ .04,.96 (.13,.89)
exactly 7 (3 more this month) ___ .12 ,.88(.15,.88)
exactly 6 (2 more this month) ___.27,.73 (.21,.80)
exactly 5 (1 more this month) ___ .37,.63 (.33,.69)
4 or less (0 more this month) ___ .21,.89 (.18,.84)

So betting “8 or more No” has the most EV=+.07 right this minute according to this model. Trump appears to be controlling himself more now so the model may be overestimating his future POF rate.

Btw, the POF contract seems too much based on Politifact's subjective choice, unlike poll numbers or votes. Maybe Predict shouldn't have offered this one.

Predictit seems way out of sync with polling: Hill at 0.73 when Nate has her at 83% and goofy has it at 90+%? Seems like a good time to get in imo.

Think its a combination of $850 limit, still being 3+ months away from resolving, and only a ~27% return. If you have a huge roll there is no reason not to lock up that return, but I'm guessing the vast majority of people on predictit are playing with like ~$100 and looking for better returns. Also a ton of dumb strumpets on the internet who still think he will win.

I'm not sure the $850 cap makes the market less accurate. It keeps any one person from skewing the market like the Romney Whale did.