Betting on Elections thread - Page 51 - Politics and Economics

He could phrase it correctly, be all "now we have a new President-elect, I'll leave it to her". I mean I agree it's not likely, I just don't think the Garland nom is 100% to still be on the table if Hillary wins, especially if it's a devastating loss for the GOP.

08-05-2016 , 11:19 AM

#1252

Nonfiction

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,498

Garland is also incredibly qualified and well respected, you can't really compare him to Myers. Plus, Hillary has the potential to appoint multiple justices, so Obama not withdrawing Garland isn't exactly robbing her of the ability to make her own appointments.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

He doesn't have to be 100% on the table for that bet to have value in the low 30s

08-05-2016 , 01:55 PM

#1253

goofyballer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 70,719

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Pulling the nominee just to game the system is a worrying precedent and a little disrespectful to Garland. Can't really imagine Obama doing it.

Not withdrawing means the GOP freerolled with their childishness here, though, and encourages them to do it again in the future.

Granted, it's the GOP we're talking about, they don't need all that much encouragement to do it again anyway - but still.

I tend to agree that Garland probably doesn't get withdrawn, but I think it's a misstep.

08-06-2016 , 01:19 AM

#1254

mersenneary

Food = Love

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 12,187

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

Thanks.

Match:

Edit: Sorry for not being clearer with a PM or whatever.

08-06-2016 , 02:04 AM

#1255

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,096

Supposedly you can get 10-1 from William Hill if you bet that Trump withdraws. Depending on how that is defined, it seems like an overlay.

08-06-2016 , 02:52 AM

#1256

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

It's trading at 7c on PredictIt, which is better even after subtracting their 10% rake on profits.

08-06-2016 , 02:52 AM

#1257

ChrisV

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Really don't see Trump withdrawing though.

08-06-2016 , 06:45 AM

#1258

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Pulling the nominee just to game the system is a worrying precedent and a little disrespectful to Garland. Can't really imagine Obama doing it.

Not pulling Garland, who was as good of a compromise nominee as Republicans could hope for, would ensure that Republicans would look at their stunt as a freeroll and would ensure its use in the future. By pulling Garland Obama wouldn't be setting a precedent -- he would be preventing the Republicans from setting an extremely worrying precedent.

08-06-2016 , 06:48 AM

#1259

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

I made this bet in the Scalia thread when he died:

I think I'm a fish for not specifying before the election. Looks increasingly likely Garland does get confirmed but only after (if) Republicans lose in November.

hmmmmmm I think I still win if Hilldawg wins, takes office, doesn't nominate anyone (or withdraw Garland's nomination) and Garland gets confirmed. Right?

08-06-2016 , 06:58 AM

#1260

domer2

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Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,140

PI's Trump withdraw contract is through August 30th, and doesn't cover death

I maxed that one at 89 cents for NO

08-06-2016 , 07:00 AM

#1261

awval999

Election Monitor.

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 6,269

Quote:

Originally Posted by SenorKeeed

I think it boils down to whether Obama himself compromised on the Garland pick. For example, if he would have preferred another candidate but picked Garland because he was more moderate (and an old white guy) hoping to get him through the GOP Senate, then perhaps he will pull him. However, if Obama truly thought that Garland is the best candidate hands down, then no, he won't pull him.

I think it's really as easy as that.

HRC is going to be able to nominate her own justices anyway. Kennedy, RBG and Breyer may all retire this term.

08-06-2016 , 10:56 AM

#1262

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by domer2

PI's Trump withdraw contract is through August 30th, and doesn't cover death

I maxed that one at 89 cents for NO

lol, didnt realize that, thats insane. Wish I could sign up at PI.

08-06-2016 , 11:02 AM

#1263

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

If anyone is interested in some high comedy, I recommend the GOP 370+ EVs comments thread on PI. Sample:

Quote:

Michael Barber DTrump • 7 days ago
Trump will win MI (Clinton was ONLY +3 in the last poll). Trump will win NM. Trump will win ME (at least most of it). Trump will Win OR. Trump will win IL. Please recalculate your "math".

jaguars DTrump • 9 days ago
He can easily get MN, ME, WA, OR, and MI off that map. NJ also within reach.

08-06-2016 , 11:04 AM

#1264

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by awval999

I don't care if Obama compromised or not. He can't let the GOP get away with this nonsense unpunished. Need to nominate a 38 year old who will be on the court for the next seven decades. **** em

08-06-2016 , 11:17 AM

#1265

Trolly McTrollson

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 36,798

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

If anyone is interested in some high comedy, I recommend the GOP 370+ EVs comments thread on PI. Sample:

PI is a great example of Poe's Law. I'm reasonably sure that some of them are just trolls trying to manipulate the price. OTOH, someone out there is buying TRUMP370 shares.

Quote:

Originally Posted by domer2

PI's Trump withdraw contract is through August 30th, and doesn't cover death

I maxed that one at 89 cents for NO

Solid play. idk why everyone is speculating about Trump voluntarily withdrawing, but there's just no way that ever happens. That cuts against everything we know about the man.

08-06-2016 , 11:23 AM

#1266

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

I don't think that Michael Barber dude is a troll. I mean here are a couple of comments from him:

Quote:

You ASSume a lot because your mind is contaminated with your desire for a Democrat clouded with a hatred of any Republican...Trump is just the flavor of the hatred day.

If Trump wins all the GOP locks, all the GOP leans, all the tossups, all the Democrat leans and 1 of the Democrat states, he will be at 371. You find this concept "impossible" today. However, in 2 short months, you will start to question what is "possible" and "impossible". It will cause you to question your faith, but you won't sell...thinking it is only a short term problem. Then in 3 months, your whole world is going to be turned upside down. By then, it will be too late to sell...you would get $.10 on every $1 you put into the market. That is my analysis.

Quote:

Yeh, unlikely on MA and RI. Agreed. This is the final map Irrational Thought. It is not going to be rocket science as to how he gets to 370. Remember Trump is running against a proven liar and a criminal. You assume that Democrats are such a dishonest bunch of people that they will vote Democrat no matter what. Please, you need to have more faith and give the Democrats more credit than that. Sure 1/3 of the Democrats would vote for Lee Harvey Oswald for President if he won the nomination but not 100%....and therein lies the problem.

If this dude is merely imitating a clueless Trumpkin, he needs an Oscar.

08-06-2016 , 11:23 AM

#1267

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Where can I learn about how this trading contracts stuff works?

08-06-2016 , 11:25 AM

#1268

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Bonus 3-sigma comment:

Quote:

klongloff Michael Barber • 5 days ago
Michael is the only person on the website that graduated from 3rd grade 5 times, and then stopped going to school.

Michael Barber klongloff • 4 days ago
I graduated 2nd in my class my friend with a 3.999999 average. I got straight A's except for 1 B.

08-06-2016 , 11:27 AM

#1269

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jbrochu

Where can I learn about how this trading contracts stuff works?

It's not complicated. You buy contracts for the price indicated. They expire at 0c or 100c. If you buy at 50c, you either double your money or lose it all. It so happens that through the wonders of math, the price you buy at should reflect your belief of the percentage chance that the thing happens. That is, if you buy at 25c, you should believe the thing happens >= 25% of the time.

Edit: Oh and PI takes 10% of profits on every market. I forget how it works if you bet both yes and no on a binary market, someone else will know.

08-06-2016 , 11:36 AM

#1270

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

Thanks.

So on Domer's 89 cents on NO for Trump withdrawing by end of August, he'll make 11 cents (per unit or whatever) if he doesn't withdraw?

08-06-2016 , 11:40 AM

#1271

Trolly McTrollson

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 36,798

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jbrochu

Thanks.

So on Domer's 89 cents on NO for Trump withdrawing by end of August, he'll make 11 cents (per unit or whatever) if he doesn't withdraw?

Exactly. You can buy YES or NO shares for each event, so for this market, you can buy a YES share for 11 cents and get a dollar if Trump pulls out, or you can buy a NO share for 89 cents and get a dollar if he doesn't pull out. So it's basically a matter of doing simple pot odds calculations.

You can also try to sell your shares. You don't have to wait for the event to happen.

08-06-2016 , 11:41 AM

#1272

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Well, he'll make 11c profit on an 89c investment, so like 12.4% (11c/89c) profit on his money or something. The same way if he bought at 50c, he would make 100% on his money. Except PI takes 10% of profits, so factoring that in he'll make like 11.1% on his investment.

08-06-2016 , 11:42 AM

#1273

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Also should be mentioned that PI max bet on a single market is $850.

08-06-2016 , 11:43 AM

#1274

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Thanks guys.

One last question: Can I use paypal or credit card or is this stuff restricted like poker deposits for US citizens?

Edit: on the PI website now. Credit card is apparently no problem. Only problem is NO on withdraw is now up to 93 cents.

Last edited by Jbrochu; 08-06-2016 at 11:53 AM.